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Market News More and more institutions join the bullish camp, and crude oil prices are expected to fly again!
More and more institutions join the bullish camp, and crude oil prices are expected to fly again!
Wall Street's views on the outlook for oil prices are also very divided, but the overall outlook is bullish. In fact, in addition to the above-mentioned Wall Street investment banks, more and more institutions and companies have recently released optimistic signals, including Barclays and DBS Bank.
2021-09-29
10585
After a period of repeated volatility, oil prices rebounded sharply again on September 28 and continued to break their multi-year highs. At present, bullish sentiment has dominated the oil market. However, like other industries, Wall Street has very different views on the outlook for oil prices, but the outlook for oil prices is generally bullish. It is worth noting that more and more institutions and companies have recently released optimistic signals, including Barclays and Morgan Stanley, and DBS Bank has raised its oil distribution price expectations for the next two years.
Standard Chartered Bank was previously a major investment bank that was bearish on oil prices. According to Standard Chartered, the first round of skimming cycle began at the end of May, and the oil distribution price reached a high of US$77.84/barrel six weeks later. The next sub-cycle was below US$68/barrel at the beginning of July 20 and reached a high of US$76.38/barrel two weeks later.
Standard Chartered said that although the possibility of the oil market returning to range fluctuations still exists, the current fundamental momentum, especially the spread of delta variants, makes it more likely that the oil distribution will eventually have a downward breakthrough.
Standard Chartered researchers strongly refuted Wall Street’s bullish views, saying that compared to rising to $75/barrel or higher, WTI crude oil prices are more likely to fall to $65/barrel or lower.
The good news is: Wall Street is still optimistic about oil prices. Goldman Sachs has become the latest investment institution to hold a fairly firm bullish view.
Goldman Sachs pointed out: "The price of Brent crude oil has reached a new high since October 2018. We expect this rebound to continue. Our Brent crude oil price forecast at the end of the year is US$90/barrel, compared to the previous forecast of US$80/barrel. Barrels. Although we have always been optimistic about oil, the current global oil supply and demand gap is greater than our expectations. The recovery of global demand from the delta variant virus is even faster than our above consensus forecast, while global supply is still lower than our consensus forecast ."
Goldman Sachs further pointed out: "Hurricane Ida offset the impact of OPEC+'s increase in production since July, while non-OPEC+ non-shale oil production continues to disappoint. So far, existing vaccines have proven effective against the delta variant virus, resulting in lower hospitalization rates. , And allow more countries to reopen, especially in Asian countries that hate the epidemic. At the same time, due to the impact of global natural gas shortages, winter demand is still on the rise. Goldman Sachs predicts that the recent inventory of 4.5 million barrels per day-yes The highest level on record-unlikely to be reversed in the next few months, which will bring oil stocks to the lowest level since 2013."
In fact, Goldman Sachs is not the only company bullish on oil. As early as June, an analyst at Bank of America had predicted that oil prices might rise to US$100 per barrel, causing an uproar.
Francisco Blanch, a commodity strategist at Bank of America, said that as the world begins to face a severe oil supply crisis, he believes that oil prices may reach $100 per barrel in 2022.
He pointed out: "First, after the 18-month lockdown, there is a large amount of pent-up mobility demand. Second, public transportation will lag behind, increasing the use of private cars for a long time. Third, research before the epidemic shows that As working from home turns into driving, more remote work may lead to increased driving mileage. On the supply side, we expect governments in the United States and around the world to curb capital expenditures in the next few quarters to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement Second, for financial reasons, investors are increasingly opposed to spending in the energy sector. Third, judicial pressure to limit carbon dioxide emissions is rising. In short, demand is expected to rebound, and supply may not be able to fully keep up. , Which will enable OPEC to control the oil market in 2022."
At the same time, UBS remains pro-cyclical, and interest rates are expected to rise further. UBS said that due to the strong recovery trend, the stock prefers energy stocks, consumer discretionary stocks, financial stocks and industrial stocks.
UBS said: "Overall, our expectations for economic growth and corporate profits remain unchanged, and our fixed income team expects interest rates to reverse, and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields will rise to 2% by the end of this year. Therefore. , We believe that the recent underperformance of the cyclical sector is temporary."
In fact, in addition to the above-mentioned Wall Street investment banks, more and more institutions and companies have recently released optimistic signals.
Barclays raised its oil price estimate by $9 due to "continuous supply shortages." Morgan Stanley's expectations for oil prices remain unchanged, but from the current trend, the bank believes that oil prices rise to $85 per barrel obviously exists.
DBS Bank raised its expectations for Brent crude oil prices for this year and next. The bank said that due to the short-term demand for fuel conversion related to natural gas, potential oil demand may increase by 500,000 to 1 million barrels per day. Taking into account the higher natural gas prices, the oil price forecasts for the next few quarters have been revised upwards. It is currently estimated that the average price of Brent crude oil in 2021 will be US$67-72/barrel, compared to the previous estimate of US$65-70/barrel; the average price of Brent crude oil is expected to be US$70-75/barrel in 2022, compared to the previous estimate of 67- US$72/barrel.
CITIC Securities said that the peak demand season is gradual and it is optimistic about the performance of oil prices in the fourth quarter. The CITIC Securities Research Report pointed out that the extent and duration of damage to the supply side caused by the hurricane impact were beyond expectations, superimposed on the recovery in demand, and global crude oil continued to go to warehouses to push up recent oil prices. The agency believes that the short-term supply-side substantial increase in production is unlikely. Crude oil may usher in the economic recovery after the epidemic in the fourth quarter, and the demand for coal and natural gas in the winter will increase in the peak demand season. The fundamentals are expected to remain strong. In the mid-to-long term, CITIC Securities still predicts that low upstream capital expenditures will curb production growth. The center of oil prices and the continuity of high oil prices will exceed expectations in the next 2-3 years. The possibility of high oil price volatility in the near future has increased, but it is still believed that there is a possibility of further surging oil prices in the next 3-6 months.
Based on the above news, we can see that although Standard Chartered is bearish on oil prices, Wall Street is generally bullish, and more and more institutions are joining the bullish camp. Oil prices are expected to rise again after the continuous rise.
(Daily chart of Brent crude oil main contract)
GMT+8 At 10:22 on September 29, the main contract price of Brent crude oil was quoted at $77.47 per barrel.
Despite differences, Wall Street is generally bullish on oil price prospects
Standard Chartered Bank was previously a major investment bank that was bearish on oil prices. According to Standard Chartered, the first round of skimming cycle began at the end of May, and the oil distribution price reached a high of US$77.84/barrel six weeks later. The next sub-cycle was below US$68/barrel at the beginning of July 20 and reached a high of US$76.38/barrel two weeks later.
Standard Chartered said that although the possibility of the oil market returning to range fluctuations still exists, the current fundamental momentum, especially the spread of delta variants, makes it more likely that the oil distribution will eventually have a downward breakthrough.
Standard Chartered researchers strongly refuted Wall Street’s bullish views, saying that compared to rising to $75/barrel or higher, WTI crude oil prices are more likely to fall to $65/barrel or lower.
The good news is: Wall Street is still optimistic about oil prices. Goldman Sachs has become the latest investment institution to hold a fairly firm bullish view.
Goldman Sachs pointed out: "The price of Brent crude oil has reached a new high since October 2018. We expect this rebound to continue. Our Brent crude oil price forecast at the end of the year is US$90/barrel, compared to the previous forecast of US$80/barrel. Barrels. Although we have always been optimistic about oil, the current global oil supply and demand gap is greater than our expectations. The recovery of global demand from the delta variant virus is even faster than our above consensus forecast, while global supply is still lower than our consensus forecast ."
Goldman Sachs further pointed out: "Hurricane Ida offset the impact of OPEC+'s increase in production since July, while non-OPEC+ non-shale oil production continues to disappoint. So far, existing vaccines have proven effective against the delta variant virus, resulting in lower hospitalization rates. , And allow more countries to reopen, especially in Asian countries that hate the epidemic. At the same time, due to the impact of global natural gas shortages, winter demand is still on the rise. Goldman Sachs predicts that the recent inventory of 4.5 million barrels per day-yes The highest level on record-unlikely to be reversed in the next few months, which will bring oil stocks to the lowest level since 2013."
In fact, Goldman Sachs is not the only company bullish on oil. As early as June, an analyst at Bank of America had predicted that oil prices might rise to US$100 per barrel, causing an uproar.
Francisco Blanch, a commodity strategist at Bank of America, said that as the world begins to face a severe oil supply crisis, he believes that oil prices may reach $100 per barrel in 2022.
He pointed out: "First, after the 18-month lockdown, there is a large amount of pent-up mobility demand. Second, public transportation will lag behind, increasing the use of private cars for a long time. Third, research before the epidemic shows that As working from home turns into driving, more remote work may lead to increased driving mileage. On the supply side, we expect governments in the United States and around the world to curb capital expenditures in the next few quarters to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement Second, for financial reasons, investors are increasingly opposed to spending in the energy sector. Third, judicial pressure to limit carbon dioxide emissions is rising. In short, demand is expected to rebound, and supply may not be able to fully keep up. , Which will enable OPEC to control the oil market in 2022."
At the same time, UBS remains pro-cyclical, and interest rates are expected to rise further. UBS said that due to the strong recovery trend, the stock prefers energy stocks, consumer discretionary stocks, financial stocks and industrial stocks.
UBS said: "Overall, our expectations for economic growth and corporate profits remain unchanged, and our fixed income team expects interest rates to reverse, and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields will rise to 2% by the end of this year. Therefore. , We believe that the recent underperformance of the cyclical sector is temporary."
More and more institutions and companies are optimistic about oil prices or demand
In fact, in addition to the above-mentioned Wall Street investment banks, more and more institutions and companies have recently released optimistic signals.
Barclays raised its oil price estimate by $9 due to "continuous supply shortages." Morgan Stanley's expectations for oil prices remain unchanged, but from the current trend, the bank believes that oil prices rise to $85 per barrel obviously exists.
DBS Bank raised its expectations for Brent crude oil prices for this year and next. The bank said that due to the short-term demand for fuel conversion related to natural gas, potential oil demand may increase by 500,000 to 1 million barrels per day. Taking into account the higher natural gas prices, the oil price forecasts for the next few quarters have been revised upwards. It is currently estimated that the average price of Brent crude oil in 2021 will be US$67-72/barrel, compared to the previous estimate of US$65-70/barrel; the average price of Brent crude oil is expected to be US$70-75/barrel in 2022, compared to the previous estimate of 67- US$72/barrel.
CITIC Securities said that the peak demand season is gradual and it is optimistic about the performance of oil prices in the fourth quarter. The CITIC Securities Research Report pointed out that the extent and duration of damage to the supply side caused by the hurricane impact were beyond expectations, superimposed on the recovery in demand, and global crude oil continued to go to warehouses to push up recent oil prices. The agency believes that the short-term supply-side substantial increase in production is unlikely. Crude oil may usher in the economic recovery after the epidemic in the fourth quarter, and the demand for coal and natural gas in the winter will increase in the peak demand season. The fundamentals are expected to remain strong. In the mid-to-long term, CITIC Securities still predicts that low upstream capital expenditures will curb production growth. The center of oil prices and the continuity of high oil prices will exceed expectations in the next 2-3 years. The possibility of high oil price volatility in the near future has increased, but it is still believed that there is a possibility of further surging oil prices in the next 3-6 months.
Based on the above news, we can see that although Standard Chartered is bearish on oil prices, Wall Street is generally bullish, and more and more institutions are joining the bullish camp. Oil prices are expected to rise again after the continuous rise.
(Daily chart of Brent crude oil main contract)
GMT+8 At 10:22 on September 29, the main contract price of Brent crude oil was quoted at $77.47 per barrel.
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