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Market News Market participants: Crude oil may remain high

Market participants: Crude oil may remain high

Recently, the price of crude oil maintained an upward trend of oscillation, and the crude oil in the inner disk once pulled back sharply, but finally closed up and broke through. As of Tuesday's close, the July WTI crude oil futures contract closed at $119.41 a barrel, an increase of 0.77%; the August Brent crude oil futures contract closed at $120.57 a barrel, an increase of 0.89%.

2022-06-08
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Recently, the price of crude oil maintained an upward trend of oscillation, and the crude oil in the inner disk once pulled back sharply, but finally closed up and broke through. As of Tuesday's close, the July WTI crude oil futures contract closed at $119.41 a barrel, an increase of 0.77%; the August Brent crude oil futures contract closed at $120.57 a barrel, an increase of 0.89%.



Huang Liunan, senior researcher of energy and chemical industry at Guotai Junan Futures, said that the market expectations on the crude oil supply side have changed rapidly recently, and the market has produced a large difference in expectations for the true scale of future exports of Russian oil under EU sanctions against Russia, which caused oil prices to break down in early June. However, with the advent of the peak summer oil consumption in the northern hemisphere, and the short-term return of Russian and Iranian crude oil is hopeless, crude oil may continue to remain at a high level in the next week.

In addition, the market still maintains a wait-and-see attitude towards the inflation trend of the United States and Europe, and inflation expectations are still strong. "From the perspective of the service industry PMI of overseas economies, the downward inflection point trend is still not smooth, which may mean that the current terminal demand for oil products is still strong, or it may support the continued strength of oil prices." Huang Liunan said that if inflation is still high, the cracking of refined oil will be large. The probability remains high, and from the medium-term trend, oil prices may remain high. However, he also believes that, considering that Russian oil exports to Asia are still in the expansion stage, and China has issued a temporary quota of 4.5 million tons of refined oil exports, there is a possibility that the global oil supply shortage pattern, especially in the Asia-Pacific region, may weaken marginally, or Induce the periodic adjustment of oil prices.

U.S. gasoline prices have hit record highs in recent weeks. The average national gasoline price hit a new record of $4.865 a gallon on Monday, up 60% from $3.041 a gallon a year earlier, AAA data showed. "The price of gasoline in the United States is relatively strong, and the recent rise in crude oil prices is only one of the reasons." Huang Liunan told reporters that in the past two months, the United States has actively exported gasoline to European countries in order to help NATO member countries alleviate the shortage of oil products, causing its There is a certain degree of shortage of gasoline in the country. In addition, due to the relative shortage of diesel in the United States and the surplus of gasoline in the second half of last year, refineries took the initiative to adjust the output ratio of gasoline and diesel, reducing the proportion of gasoline production, laying a hidden danger for the current gasoline shortage.

"If oil prices continue to remain high, in the medium and long term, it will definitely hurt the economy." Huang Liunan said, especially the sharp rise in crude oil prices in the off-season consumption at the beginning of the year, prematurely overdrafted the bullish expectation of a long-term supply gap.

He explained that, in general, the damage path of high-priced crude oil to the economy is reflected in pushing up inflation through the strengthening of unilateral prices of refined oil products, thereby inhibiting the resilience of the medium and long-term economic recovery. However, under the overseas tightening cycle, the impact logic of high oil prices, inflation and economic trends at this stage is somewhat alienated. The better recovery resilience of the terminal service industry and the high inflation under the influence of logistics bottlenecks have given gasoline and diesel a greater margin for profit. This has not only boosted the refinery's comprehensive gross profit, but also increased the refinery's demand for crude oil for primary processing. , which pushed up oil prices. In the process of rising oil prices, the crack spread of refined oil has been expanding and is currently at a high level.

"Considering that the gross profit of overseas refined oil products is still relatively high, and the adverse impact of the current oil price strengthening on the economy is relatively weak, the core of our attention is the tightening rhythm of overseas central banks." Huang Liunan said that domestically, due to the restrictions on the ceiling price of refined oil products , the short-term inhibition of the economy by rising oil prices is relatively limited, and the impact is mainly on the willingness of refineries to start. In the future, we should pay attention to the marginal improvement of domestic demand under steady growth and the recovery of refinery profits due to the continuous reduction of refined oil export quotas.

Source: Futures Daily
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