Market Participants Laser-focused on Next Week’s FOMC Meeting

Prior to the FOMC statement and press conference on March 22, rate hike speculation fluctuates.

The Chairman of the FOMC, Jerome Powell, will then hold a news briefing and issue a statement the following day, March 22.

The Federal Reserve has consistently raised interest rates at each FOMC meeting since March 2022, and there is conjecture about whether they will do so again. If they continue to use rate increases as a weapon to reduce inflation, there is also conjecture about the magnitude of the rate increase that will be revealed. The Federal Reserve's next moves are a subject of constant and shifting rumor.

According to the CME's FedWatch program, the likelihood that the Federal Reserve would stop its string of rate increases was zero one week ago, on March 9. The FedWatch gadget indicated yesterday that there was a 45.4% chance that rates would not be raised next week. This chance is now only 18.1% likely. According to CME's FedWatch program, there is currently an 81.9% chance that the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates by 0.14%.

The volatility in projections for the actions of the Federal Reserve is directly tied to not only the latest jobs report and inflation report but also has taken into consideration the recent banking meltdowns by two banks United States; California’s Silicon Valley Bank and the Signature Bank of New York.

The most recent move involves a significant cash infusion of $30 billion, which will be put into the First Republic Bank by 11 big US institutions. Federal banking authorities welcomed this big bank group's backing as evidence of the resiliency of the American financial system.

According to MarketWatch, “Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, FDIC Chairman Martin Gruenberg and Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu said that “this show of support by a group of large banks is most welcome, and demonstrates the resilience of the banking system”.