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[Market Morning] US Oil Fell Below $90, Giving Back Gains Since the Conflict Between Russia and Ukraine; the US Labor Market Cooled, Fed Officials Revealed Clues to Cut Interest Rates, and Gold Broke Through 1790
In early Asian trading, the U.S. dollar index was trading around 105.75; the U.S. dollar fell on Thursday, dragged down by the increase in the number of U.S. jobless claims last week, and the market was waiting for the non-agricultural data to be released; the price of gold rose nearly 1.5%, hitting a new one-month high and approaching At $1,800 per ounce, investors paid close attention to geopolitical tensions; crude oil fell nearly 3.5%, hitting a new half-year low again, and the intraday low once hit $87.57 per barrel, due to rising demand concerns.
Precious metals moved higher, driven by the fall in the dollar. Spot gold broke through $1,790 an ounce, continuing to hit a new high since July 5, and closed up 1.47% at $1,790.98 an ounce; spot silver held steady above the $20 mark and closed up 0.58 % at $20.17 an ounce.
Comment: Gold climbed more than 1% on Thursday to a one-month high, as the dollar and US Treasury yields retreated and investors kept a close eye on geopolitical tensions. Recently, Treasury yields have fallen slightly, coupled with the recent weakening of the US dollar, which has become one of the key positives for gold.
Suggestion: long spot gold 1793.10 positions, target point 1803.60.
The US dollar index accelerated after the release of the US jobless claims data. US stocks fell below 106 in early trading and closed down 0.59% at 105.75. The 10-year US bond yield fell below the 2.7% mark.
Comment: The dollar weakened against most major currencies on Thursday as the boost from the Fed's hawkish message faded, and investors turned their attention to the highly anticipated US jobs report after data showed the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose last week. Afterward, the dollar extended its losses.
Suggestion: short position of EUR/USD 1.02450, target point 1.01520.
Crude oil fell to its lowest level in nearly six months. Brent crude oil fell 4% on the day, breaking below $94/barrel for the first time since February 21, and closed down 3.55% at $93.56/barrel; WTI crude oil fell below $90 for the first time since the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and closed down 3.11% at $88.02 a barrel. The analysis said Americans are driving less than they did in the summer of 2020 due to weaker demand for US crude.
Comment: Global oil prices hit their lowest levels since Russia invaded Ukraine in February on Thursday, as traders fretted about a possible recession later this year that could hit energy demand hard. Falling oil prices may have come as a relief to big consumers, including the US and European countries, which have been urging producers to increase output to offset tight supplies and fight soaring inflation.
Suggestion: short the position of US crude oil 87.470, the target point is 84.000.
US stocks closed mixed; the Dow closed down 0.26%, the Nasdaq closed up 0.41%, and the S&P 500 closed down 0.09%. Silver and gold stocks were among the top gainers, while oil and gas and vaccine stocks were weak. Alibaba closed up about 2% after the results, Daily Youxian closed up about 51%, and AMTD Digital closed down about 23%. Previously, Changjiang Group stated that its subsidiaries did not directly hold the equity of AMTD Digital and had no business relationship with the company.
Comment: US stocks were mixed on Thursday, with gains in high-growth stocks offsetting declines in energy stocks as investors looked to the monthly US jobs report for clues about the pace of the Federal Reserve's rate hikes.
Suggestion: Go long at 13315.300 of the Nasdaq index. The target point is 13577.140.
Petrobras announces a 3.6% cut in diesel prices.
On August 4, local time, Petrobras announced a 3.6% cut in diesel prices for refineries, according to which the price per liter of diesel sold by distributors will drop from 5.61 reais (about 7.18 yuan) to 5.41 reais. Er (about 6.92 yuan), an average reduction of 0.20 reais (about 0.26 yuan), the measure will take effect on August 5.
The US plans to declare the monkeypox outbreak a public health emergency.
According to reports, the US government plans to declare the monkeypox outbreak a public health emergency as early as August 4, local time, to increase awareness, release flexibility and funds to handle the event, and curb the spread of the virus. Previously, the World Health Organization declared on July 23 that the monkeypox outbreak had constituted a "public health emergency of international concern," which is also the highest level of warning that the WHO can issue.
Russia's central bank wants SOEs to abandon 'toxic' currencies of unfriendly countries.
Russia's central bank wants the government to order state-owned companies to convert their foreign currency holdings into the currencies of countries that have not imposed sanctions on Russia, arguing that it is reasonable for companies holding currencies of unfriendly countries to exchange "toxic" currencies for other currencies. The Bank of Russia said that Russia faces the huge goals of economic structural transformation, economic modernization, the realization of technological sovereignty, and the repositioning of international economic relations, and the banking system must respond to these challenges by actively participating in the financing of economic development. The central bank also said additional steps might be needed to prompt all non-financial institutions to convert their holdings into currencies outside of what Russia considers "unfriendly" countries.
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