[Market Morning] Two US Economic Data Hit A New Two-Year Low, Gold Once Rebounded to $24, And the US Index Stopped Rising For Four Days

On Tuesday, spot gold rose sharply by about $24 during the U.S. session, rising above $1,750 at one point, and then fell back, finally closing up 0.69% at $1,748.40 per ounce; spot silver closed up 0.65% at $19.11/oz. ounce.

Comment: Gold prices rose on Tuesday, snapping a six-day losing streak, after data showed weakness in U.S. business activity, dragging the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields lower. U.S. private business activity shrank for a second straight month in August to its weakest level in 27 months.

Suggestion: short spot gold at 1745.70, the target point is 1727.60.

The US dollar index rose to a high of 109.29 and then retreated, extending its decline during the U.S. session, and finally closed down 0.4% at 108.52; the 10-year U.S. bond yield was on a roller coaster ride, still above 3.0%, closing at 3.24%.

Comment: The U.S. dollar index fell 0.376% to 108.58 on Tuesday, after hitting 109.27 earlier, the highest level since hitting a 20-year high in mid-July; against the euro fell from a 20-year high on Tuesday after data showed that U.S. private sector activity in August The weaker-than-expected move fueled bets that the Fed might be less aggressive in its rate-hike cycle.

Suggestion: short position of EUR/USD 0.99640, target point 0.99220.

In terms of crude oil, affected by the news, the two oils rebounded and expanded their gains during the U.S. session. WTI crude oil rose 3.8% during the day, and finally closed up 3.49% at $93.76 per barrel; Brent crude oil stood at 100. The dollar mark, a new high since August 12, finally closed up 3.67% at $100.09 per barrel.

Comment: Oil prices surged nearly 4 percent on Tuesday after Saudi Arabia floated the idea of OPEC+ production cuts to support prices on the prospect of a return of Iranian crude to the market and a drop in U.S. inventories. Crude oil inventories fell by about 5.6 million barrels in the week ended Aug. 19, gasoline inventories rose by about 268,000 barrels, and distillate inventories rose by about 1.1 million barrels.

Suggestion: long US crude oil at 93.500, the target point is 95.550.

The Dow closed down 0.47%, the S&P 500 closed down 0.22%, the Nasdaq closed flat, oil and gas stocks and education stocks rose, and vaccine stocks fell. Xiaopeng Motors closed down about 11% after the results, the biggest one-day drop since May. Shell closed up about 7%, and JD.com closed up about 3%.

Comment: U.S. stocks closed lower on Tuesday as investors focused on data showing an economic slowdown ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting later in the week in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. The S&P 500 fell after data showed U.S. private sector business activity contracted for a second straight month in August, with the services sector particularly weak as demand weakened amid high inflation and tighter financial conditions.

Suggestion: go short at 12882.900 of the Nasdaq index, target point at 12707.800.

OPEC+ considers output cuts as Iran nuclear deal nears resumption

Nine OPEC sources said on Tuesday that the OPEC+ production cuts considered by Saudi Arabia this week may not be implemented immediately, and if Iran reaches a nuclear deal with the West, the production cuts may be synchronized with the return of Iranian oil to the market.

OPEC's de facto leader, Saudi Arabia, on Monday hinted at the possibility of a production cut to balance what it described as a "schizophrenic" market in which paper and physical markets have become increasingly disconnected. Announcing output cuts at the upcoming OPEC+ meeting on Sept. 5 may be premature, but may be necessary if the 2015 Iran nuclear deal is likely to resume, leading to increased supply in the oil market, the sources said. OPEC+ should prepare for the return of Iranian oil to the market after sanctions are lifted.

Italian homesteaders association predicts 2.6 million people in the country will be at risk of starvation this autumn

On August 23, local time, the Italian Homestead Farmers Association released an analysis report saying that affected by high energy prices and inflation, an estimated 2.6 million people in Italy are at risk of starvation this autumn. The Italian Homestead Farmers Association pointed out that due to high energy prices, rising prices, and drought leading to poor agricultural harvests, Italian household food consumption will increase by an average of 564 euros (about 3,800 yuan) in 2022. Among them, the food that Italians spend the most is bread, pasta and rice, and their annual expenditure has risen by nearly 115 euros (about 780 yuan). (CCTV News)

U.S. natural gas daily electricity generation hits record high in mid-July

Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) hourly grid monitoring system shows that in the 48 contiguous U.S. states, natural gas generation reached 6.37 million megawatt-hours on July 21. Despite relatively high natural gas prices, demand for natural gas for power generation has been strong in July due to above-normal temperatures, a reduction in coal-fired power generation and a recent increase in natural gas production capacity.