[Market Morning] The PCE in United States Fell Slightly, Gold is Riding a "Roller Coaster" Again, And the Prospects for the Iran Nuclear Talks Are Increasingly Bleak

On Thursday, spot gold went on a roller coaster ride again. Spot gold rose by $22 in the short-term during the US session, then gave up all gains and turned down, and finally closed down 0.54% at $1,807.26 per ounce; spot silver continued to decline, closing down 2.07 %, at $20.28 an ounce.

Comment: Gold fell on Thursday and posted its worst quarterly performance in five, as a hawkish tone from global central banks dented the appeal for the non-yielding asset. Gold ended the quarter lower on the Fed's tightening policy recommendations. In addition, recession fears are likely to lower demand for the entire commodity.

Suggestion: short spot gold at 1805.60, and the target point is 1799.50

The US dollar index fell sharply after hitting an intraday high of 105.56 and below the 105 mark, closing down 0.4% at 104.7; the 10-year US Treasury yield fell sharply, falling below 3% at one point.

Comment: Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of US economic activity, rose 0.2% in May, the Commerce Department said on Thursday, below the 0.4% expected by economists. The dollar's gains were largely unchanged, given heightened fears of a global recession, but today we saw data that didn't dissuade fears that the US economy was headed for a recession within the next year before giving back some gains.

Suggestion: short position of EUR/USD 1.04750, target point 1.03830

In terms of crude oil, the two crude oils continued their decline. WTI crude oil fell about 5 US dollars from the daily high and closed down 3.47% at US$107.53 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed down 2.88% at US$112.19 per barrel.

Comment: Oil prices fell about 3% on Thursday as OPEC+ confirmed that it would only increase output by as much as previously announced despite tight global supplies. The market is wondering about future production volumes.

Suggestion: go short at 104.560 of US crude oil, target at 101.080

The three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed lower in terms of US stocks. The Dow Jones closed down 0.82% at 30,775.43 points; the S&P 500 closed down 0.88% at 3,785.38 points; the Nasdaq Composite closed down 1.33% at 11,028.74 points.

Comment: The three major U.S. stock indexes ended lower in June and the second quarter, with the S&P 500 posting its biggest first-half percentage drop since 1970. The Nasdaq posted its biggest January-June percentage drop on record, and the Dow suffered its biggest first-half percentage drop since 1962.

Suggestion: go short at the 3782.400 positions of the S&P index, and the target point is 3734.190

US core PCE price index misses expectations in May.

On Thursday, the US core PCE price index recorded an annual rate of 4.7% in May, the lowest since November last year, slightly lower than the expected 4.8%, and a decline from the previous value of 4.9%.

US jobless claims for the week ended June 25 beat expectations.

Yesterday, the number of Americans filing initial jobless claims for the week ending June 25 was recorded at 231,000, compared to expectations of 228,000 and the previous value of 229,000.

Fed forecast model: US economy will shrink 1% in Q2

US inflation-adjusted personal spending fell for the first time this year in May, with gains in the first four months of the year being revised, and surveys of home sales and manufacturing also pointed to a bleak picture, suggesting the US economy is on increasingly shaky ground. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model's forecast for second-quarter GDP on Thursday slumped to a 1% contraction after rising 0.3% earlier in the week.