[Market Morning] The Fed's Hawkish Bet Is Unprecedented, the US Index Broke Above 109, Gold Broke Below 1730, And The Euro Continued to Hit a New Low Since 2002

On Monday, spot gold fell sharply before the European market. The high point once fell by about $21 and fell below the $1730 mark. It finally closed down 0.61% at $1736.47 per ounce. It is worth noting that gold has closed for six consecutive days. Overcast; spot silver closed down 0.28% at $18.99 an ounce.

Comment: Gold prices fell to their lowest level in nearly a month on Monday, as the dollar strengthened, precious metals fell sharply, and the Federal Reserve's imminent interest rate hike also weakened gold's appeal.

Suggestion: short spot gold 1734.95 position, target point 1723.20.

The US dollar index achieved four consecutive positives and rose to a high of 109.11 for the first time since July 14, and finally closed up 0.78% at 108.94; the 10-year U.S. bond yield rose to more than 3%, for July The highest since the 21st, closing at 3.24%. The euro fell below the previous low of 0.9952 against the dollar, continuing to hit a new low since 2002.

Comment: The dollar rose across the board on Monday, rising above parity against the euro again. Investors are increasingly worried that the US and European interest rate hikes to curb inflation will weaken the global economy, so they stay away from riskier assets. The dollar rose 0.8% against a basket of currencies to hit a more than five-week high of 109.02, not far from a 20-year high of 109.29 hit in mid-July.

Suggestion: short position of EUR/USD 0.99355, target point 0.99050.

In terms of crude oil, the two oil prices fluctuated greatly in the day, and the two oil prices dived before the US market. WTI crude oil once fell by 4%, then rose sharply and once turned up nearly 1%, and finally closed up 0.8% at US$90.59/barrel; Brent crude oil also extended its daily decline to 3%, and then sharply rose by more than 1%, and finally closed up 0.96% at $96.68 a barrel.

Comment: Oil prices rebounded from session lows on Monday, almost flat in choppy trade, as markets weighed Saudi Arabia's warnings about possible output cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, OPEC+, and the possibility that a nuclear deal could make sanctioned The possibility of Iranian oil returning to the market.

Suggestion:  long US crude oil at 90.620, the target point is 92.350.

US stocks fell throughout the day, the Dow closed down 1.91%, the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 closed down 2.55% and 2.14%, respectively. Most sectors such as chips and WSB concepts generally closed lower. AMC Cinemas closed down about 42%, and 3B Home closed down about 16%.

Comment: U.S. stocks ended sharply lower on Monday as investors jittered about a Fed seminar in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, later this week, where the U.S. central bank is expected to underscore its firm commitment to curbing inflation. All 11 sectors of the S&P 500 fell, led by consumer discretionary stocks, which fell 2.84%, followed by information technology stocks, which fell 2.78%. Nvidia fell 4.6%, Amazon fell 3.6%, Microsoft and Apple both fell more than 2%, and the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury bond hit its highest since July 21. The CBOE market volatility index, known as Wall Street's fear gauge, rose to 23.9, the highest in more than two weeks.

Suggestion: go short at 12929.900 of the Nasdaq index, target point at 12930.400.

EU agency report: Russia cuts gas supply or pays 2.5% GDP loss to Germany and Germany

Italian media quoted the assessment and analysis of the European Stability Mechanism, an EU institution, and reported that if Russia stopped gas supply in August, it may lead to the exhaustion of gas reserves in euro zone countries by the end of the year, and the GDP of Italy and Germany, the two most at-risk countries. Or lose 2.5%. According to the analysis, Russia's cessation of natural gas supply may trigger energy rationing and economic recession in euro zone countries. If no measures are taken, the GDP of the euro area may lose 1.7%; if the EU requires countries to reduce their natural gas consumption by up to 15%, the GDP loss of euro area countries may be 1.1%.

Survey shows 72% of economists expect next U.S. recession to begin in mid-2023

A new survey by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) shows that 72% of economists surveyed expect the next U.S. recession to begin in mid-2023. The survey also showed that 73% of economists said they were "not at all confident" or "not very confident" about the Fed's claim to reduce inflation to 2% within the next two years without causing a recession, compared with only 13%. Economists said they were "confident" or "very confident" the Fed could achieve that goal. In addition, according to the judgment of the National Institute of Economic Research (NBER), 19% of economists said the U.S. economy is already in recession, and only 20% of economists expect the U.S. recession will not begin before the second half of 2023.

Saudi energy minister: Oil futures market caught in a self-perpetuating vicious circle

Asked if he was concerned about current market conditions, the Saudi energy minister said that the oil futures market is caught in a self-perpetuating vicious circle, with very thin liquidity and extreme volatility, undermining the market’s basic function of regulating prices and making it difficult for the market to adjust prices. Physical users cannot afford the cost of hedging and managing risk. This negatively affects the smooth and efficient functioning of oil markets, energy commodities and other commodities, creating new types of risks. This vicious circle is amplified by a number of factors, including unsubstantiated reports of demand destruction, recurring news of substantial supply recovery, and ambiguity and uncertainty about the potential impact of price caps, embargoes and sanctions.