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[Market Morning] The "Eagle King" of the Federal Reserve Made a Hawkish Voice Again. The Group of Seven Countries Plans to Announce a Ban on Russian Gold Imports and A Cap on Russian Oil Prices.
The S&P recorded its biggest daily gain in two years last Friday, with the S&P Nasdaq rising more than 3% and the Dow rising more than 800 points, reversing a three-week losing streak, thanks to the receding expectations of Fed rate hikes. Meta rose more than 7%, its sector rose nearly 4%, Tesla rose 13% for a week, its sector rose more than 8% for the week, and the energy sector fell alone for the week. The pan-European stock index recorded its biggest gain in six weeks, ending a three-week losing streak. The technology sector rose nearly 4% and rose more than 5% for the week, while the mining sector fell nearly 5% for the week. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was up 3.1 percent, up more than 10 basis points from Thursday's low, and still halted a three-week winning streak. The dollar index snapped a three-week winning streak. U.S. oil rose more than 3% to shake off a six-week trough and still fell for two weeks in a row. European natural gas fell off a three-month high and was still
On Friday, spot gold failed to break through the $1,830 mark several times, finally closing up 0.21% at $1,826.18 per ounce; spot silver continued to fluctuate and closed up 0.84% at $21.11 per ounce. On Monday, spot gold jumped $10 at the open before retreating; silver jumped with gold but has given up most of its gains.
Comment: The hourly line shows that the short-term gold price has risen and fallen back below the pressure level of the technical indicator. With the continuation of the short-term downward trend, the hourly line has been further brought into a more orderly downward divergence and bearish arrangement, maintaining a relatively strong bearish guidance reference. In the days below, we should pay attention to the support strength near the lower edge of the large sideways range near $1810. If it breaks below, I am afraid that gold will further test the low support area.
Suggestion: short Spot gold at 1831.40, and the target point is 1815.20.
The US dollar index fluctuated downward, fell below the 104 mark during the US market session, and finally closed down 0.239% at 104.15; the 10-year US bond yield continued its rebound trend and rose to a high of 3.136%.
Comment: The US dollar index fell slightly in the week of June 24, mainly due to rising concerns about the US economic recession. At the same time, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell also acknowledged the possibility of a recession. Elsewhere, the euro edged higher against the dollar, but investors were concerned about the euro zone's prospects.
Suggestion: short the euro/dollar at 1.05700, and the target point is 1.04830.
In terms of crude oil, the two oil prices rose in the short term during the US session. WTI crude oil finally closed up 2.56% at $109.16 per barrel; Brent crude oil finally closed up 2.15% at $122.19 per barrel. On Monday, WTI crude oil fell 0.8 US dollars, the decline rapidly expanded to 1.5%, and then recovered; Brent crude oil fell by 1.5 US dollars in the short-term and has recovered some lost ground.
Comment: OPEC+ agreed at its June 2 meeting to increase production in July by 648,000 barrels per day, or 7% of global demand, and maintain the same increase in August, higher than the original plan of 432,000 barrels per day month-to-month Yield increase. But the group has struggled to meet its monthly output increase target due to a lack of investment in some producers and a recent drop in Russian output.
Suggestion: short US crude oil at 105.300; the target point is 101.840.
The Dow closed up 2.7%, the Nasdaq closed up 3.34%, and the S&P 500 rose 3.06%. Eleven sectors of the S&P 500 rose across the board, with financial, industrial, and materials stocks performing the strongest. Popular Chinese concept stocks and star technology stocks generally rose. Xiaopeng Motors rose nearly 7%, and Tesla rose more than 4%. The S&P 500 posted its first weekly gain in four weeks, up 6.5%. The Dow rose 5.40% for the week, and the Nasdaq rose 7.49% for the week.
Comment: Thanks to the anticipation of the Fed raising interest rates, the S&P recorded its largest daily gain in two years on Friday. The S&P Nasdaq rose more than 3%, and the Dow rose more than 800 points, reversing a three-week losing streak. Meta rose more than 7%, its sector rose nearly 4%, Tesla rose 13% for the week, its sector rose more than 8% the week, and the energy sector fell alone for the week.
Suggestion: Go short at 12073.400 of the Nasdaq index and target at 11697.900.
Fed's Bullard: Wants to raise rates to 3.5% this year.
The Fed's "Eagle King" Bullard said on the 24th that he believes that raising interest rates will slow down economic growth. For now, rates are still far from neutral. In this case, rising interest rates early is a good idea. But it is too early to start a debate on the possibility of a recession. Raising rates early means the Fed can nip inflation before it takes root. He also said he wanted to raise interest rates to 3.5% this year. However, once disinflationary momentum builds, the Fed may lower its policy rate.
Fed's Daly: No recession expected.
The 2024 FOMC vote commissioner Daly said that discussions may begin in 2024 for the end of the reduction. He doesn't expect a recession in the US economy. He also said that if the Fed's preemptive rate hikes are effective, the Fed will ultimately need to do less.
US University of Michigan consumer confidence index hits record low in June.
On the 24th, the final value of the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index in June was further revised down to 50, a record low, down 14.4% from the May data. About 79% of consumers expect bad business conditions in the year ahead, the highest percentage since 2009.
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