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[Market Morning] Ten-Year US Bond Yields Climbed Back Above 2.9%, and Gold Once Plummeted by About $23
In early Asian trading on August 18, the U.S. dollar index traded around 106.65. The U.S. dollar pared its gains on Wednesday after the Fed released the minutes of its July meeting, because the minutes showed that Fed officials were worried that they may raise interest rates excessively in the process of fulfilling their pledge to control inflation. Gold fell nearly 1 percent, falling for a third straight session, as oil prices turned higher after hitting their lowest in six months, as a sharp drop in U.S. crude inventories overshadowed concerns about rising Russian output and exports and a recession.
On Wednesday, spot gold rose to a daily high of $1,782.16 and then plummeted by about $23, falling below the $1760 mark at one point, and finally closed down 0.78% at $1,761.68 per ounce; spot silver fell with gold and fell below the $20 mark, and finally closed down 1.77% at $19.79 an ounce.
Comment: The decline in gold prices narrowed on Wednesday after the minutes of the Fed meeting showed that the pace of future interest rate hikes will depend on future economic data, and the rising dollar still put pressure on gold prices.
Suggestion: short spot gold at 1764.10; the target point is 1750.70
The US dollar index fluctuated upward, dived by about 30 points in the late session, then recovered some of the losses, and finally closed up 0.17% at 106.65; the 10-year US bond yield started a rise in the European session and returned to above 2.9%. It finally closed at 2.902%.
Comment: The dollar pared gains on Wednesday after the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve's July meeting, which showed that Fed officials feared that they might raise interest rates too much in the process of delivering on their pledge to control inflation.
Suggestion: short position of EUR/USD 1.01760, target point 1.01210
In terms of crude oil, the two oils showed a volatile market. WTI crude oil fluctuated around US$87 and finally closed up 0.21% at US$87.29 per barrel; Brent crude oil finally closed up 0.23% at US$92.82 per barrel.
Comment: Oil prices reversed gains after hitting a six-month low on Wednesday, rising about 1.5%, as a sharp drop in US crude inventories overshadowed concerns about rising Russian output and exports and a recession.
Suggestion: short the position of US crude oil 87.310, the target point is 85.400
The Dow closed down 0.50%, the S&P 500 closed down 0.72%, and the Nasdaq closed down 1.25%. Takeaway, lidar, and charging pile concept stocks were among the top losers, and the oil and gas sector rose against the market.
Comment: US stocks ended lower on Wednesday, with major indexes in choppy trading after minutes of the Federal Reserve's July meeting showed policymakers may not be as aggressive as previously thought in raising interest rates in September. The major indexes pared losses sharply following the release of the minutes, with the Dow briefly turning higher before returning to lows hit earlier.
Suggestion: go short at 13439.400 of the Nasdaq index, target point at 13272.400
The minutes of the Fed meeting revealed that the Fed might cut interest rate hikes, and Fed officials mentioned the risk of excessive policy tightening.
Fed officials in July argued that the pace of rate hikes would eventually need to ease at some point. They want to assess the role of policy tightening in containing inflation. Minutes from the July 26-27 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting stated: "With the stance of monetary policy tightening further, it is likely that a slower pace of rate hikes will be appropriate at some point in the future, while Assess the impact of cumulative policy adjustments on economic activity and inflation." Many participants said that given the changing economic environment and the long and variable lag in the impact of monetary policy on the economy, the stance of monetary policy risked tightening too much, possibly beyond what is needed to maintain price stability, the minutes said. The wording used in the minutes was similar to Powell's remarks at a post-meeting news conference in July. At the time, Powell's comments about a potential rate hike in the future ignited the stock market rally. But even so, Powell did not close the door on the possibility of another extraordinary rate hike in September, revealing that it would depend on the performance of economic data.
US crude exports rise to record as Europe braces for Russian oil ban.
US crude exporters saw record exports as European refiners prepared new supply routes ahead of the region's move to ban oil imports from Russia. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed that the country exported 5 million BPD of oil overseas for the week, surpassing the highs set a month ago. The rise in exports highlights how far the world is turning to US suppliers for its energy needs. In addition to Europe's growing dependence on oil, global markets are also turning to oil to meet electricity needs.
WHO openly solicits new names for the monkeypox virus
According to Reuters, the WHO has the power to assign new names to exist diseases listed in the International Classification of Diseases. These disease names are usually chosen behind closed doors by a technical committee, but this time WHO has decided to open a call for new names for the monkeypox virus. WHO has received dozens of naming proposals from various groups, including academics and doctors. "It is very important to find a new name for monkeypox," WHO spokesman Fadra Shayb said on the 16th, to ensure that it does not offend any particular group of people, animals, countries, regions, etc.
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