[Market Morning] Russia and Iran Jointly Challenged the Hegemony of the US Dollar, the US Dollar Index Nearly Fell Below 107, and the Oil Price Returned to the 100 Yuan Mark!

On Monday, spot gold rose at the opening, once broke through the 1720 mark and turned, and finally closed down 0.02% at $1709.99 per ounce. 

Comment: Gold prices recovered on Monday, boosted by a retreat in the dollar, and aftermarket bets on the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 100 basis points next week weakened. Gold prices hit their lowest in nearly a year last week as a sharp rise in the US dollar made gold more expensive for holders of other currencies.

Suggestion: short spot gold at 1707.20, and the target point is 1700.00.

The US dollar index continued to weaken, rebounded after falling below the 107 mark, and finally closed down 0.509% at 107.46; the 10-year US bond yields faced off against the bulls and the bears by 3%, and finally closed at 2.989%.

Comment: The dollar hit a one-week low against a basket of currencies on Monday, retreating from a 20-year high last week, as traders lowered bets for an aggressive rate hike by the Federal Reserve at its meeting later this month. Fed policymakers signaled on Friday that they might hold on to raising rates by 75 basis points at their July 26-27 meeting. Still, recent high inflation readings suggest a more significant rate hike may be needed later this year. Traders in futures contracts linked to the Fed's short-term federal funds policy rate, which had been leaning toward a 100 basis point hike, are now firmly shifting their bets to 75 basis points.

Suggestion: the euro against the dollar is short at 1.01410, and the target point is 1.01000.

In terms of crude oil, the two natural oils benefited from the weakening of the US dollar. WTI crude oil returned to above US$100 and finally closed up 4.63% at US$101.38 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed up 4.78% at US$106.84 per barrel.

Comment: Oil prices surged more than $5 on Monday, boosted by a weaker dollar and expectations that the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates by a whole percentage point at its next meeting to fight inflation. Two Fed officials said on Friday that only a 75 basis point rate hike is likely at their July 26-27 meeting. Markets were lower late last week after reports that the Federal Reserve was considering a decision to raise interest rates by 100 basis points.

Suggestion: short US crude oil at 98.430; the target point is 95.010.

The three major stock indexes accelerated their decline in late trading in terms of US stocks. The Dow closed down 0.69%, the Nasdaq fell 0.81%, and the S&P 500 lost 0.84%. Apple closed down 2.06%, and the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index closed up 1.8%.

Comment: US stocks ended lower on Monday after banks pared earlier gains, and Apple fell on a report that the company plans to slow hiring and spending growth next year. S&P financial stocks started to fall late in the session, having rallied strongly in early trade after Bank of America and Goldman Sachs reported results. Apple reversed its intraday gains and closed down 2.1 percent at $147.1. Earlier, Bloomberg News reported, citing people familiar with the matter, that Apple intends to slow hiring and spending growth in some divisions next year in response to a potential economic downturn.

Suggestion: Go short at the 11908.000 positions of the Nasdaq index, and the target point is 11709.920.

EU plans embargo on Russian gold, gold jewelry excluded from the sanctions list

According to foreign media reports, the European Commission formulated a draft ban on exporting Russian gold on Friday. The draft shows that the EU will only ban the import of gold powder, unprocessed or semi-finished gold, gold coins, and scrap gold but does not list the ban on Importing gold jewelry, such as gold necklaces or gold rings, which could leave an opportunity to "drill holes" for Russia, which exports billions of euros worth of gold every year. According to several diplomats, the draft is likely to be adopted by EU ambassadors at a meeting this Wednesday or Friday.

The NAHB housing market index in the United States recorded 55 in July, the lowest since May 2020

The National Association of Home Builders said the US NAHB housing market index plunged in July to its lowest level since the early months of the coronavirus outbreak, as high inflation and borrowing costs hit their highest level in more than a decade, bringing customer traffic to a near standstill. . The index has fallen for the seventh straight month, to 55 from 67 in June, the lowest level since May 2020.

The two major U.S. overseas creditors continued to sell US debt, and China's holdings fell below the $1 trillion mark

On Monday, the US Treasury Department released its May report on international capital flows. The report shows that the two major U.S. overseas creditors continued to sell US Treasuries. China's holdings of US Treasuries fell below the $1 trillion mark for the first time since June 2010 and traded the most among all countries in May, reaching $22.6 billion, with a continuous reduction in holdings. $100 billion in six months. Japan's US bond holdings fell for three consecutive months, hitting a new low in more than two years.