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Market News [Market Morning] European and American manufacturing data rekindled recession panic, U.S. index and U.S. bond yields fell together, and gold surged above 1770

[Market Morning] European and American manufacturing data rekindled recession panic, U.S. index and U.S. bond yields fell together, and gold surged above 1770

In early Asian trading on August 2, the US dollar was trading around 105.40, and the US dollar weakened on Monday, as investors increased their bets that the Fed's aggressive policies would plunge the US economy into recession; gold prices extended gains, approaching a one-month high, Coupled with the impact of geopolitical tensions, gold prices may have further room to rise; crude oil fell more than 4%, and investors prepared for the supply meeting of OPEC and its oil-producing allies this week.

TOPONE Markets Analyst
2022-08-02
671

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On Monday, spot gold continued its rally, breaking through the 1770 mark, and finally closed up 0.57% at $1,772.26 per ounce; spot silver fluctuated within a narrow range and finally closed up 0.71% at $20.36 per ounce.


Comment: Gold prices were near a one-month high on Monday as the dollar fell as investors awaited economic data that could affect the Fed's path to tightening policy. Gold has more upside given major issues like Russia, Ukraine, and some headwinds for the U.S. dollar.


Suggestion: Do more spot gold at 1771.50 and target at 1783.90.


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The U.S. dollar index fluctuated downwards, dropping as low as 105.25, and finally closed down 0.425% at 105.4; supported by safe-haven demand, U.S. Treasury bonds closed higher, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield finally closed at 2.588%, the highest since April 7. minimum level.


Comment: The dollar weakened on Monday as investors ramped up bets that the Fed’s aggressive policies will tip the U.S. economy into recession, U.S. manufacturing activity slowed less than expected in July, signs that supply constraints are easing, manufacturing inputs A sub-item of prices fell to a two-year low, suggesting inflation may have peaked.


Suggestion: the euro against the dollar is short at 1.02590, the target point is 1.01470.


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In terms of crude oil, the two crude oils fell sharply. WTI crude oil once fell 5.41% in the day, then rebounded weakly, and finally closed down 4.3% at US$94.05/barrel; Brent crude oil closed down 3.59% at US$99.91/barrel.


Comment: Oil prices fell more than 4% on Monday as weak manufacturing data from several countries affected the demand outlook, while investors prepared for a supply meeting this week between OPEC and its oil-producing allies.


Suggestion: US crude oil is long at 92.870, and the target point is 95.560.


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US stocks fell collectively, the Dow closed down 0.14%, the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500 closed down 0.18% and 0.28% respectively. On the disk, most of the popular Chinese concept stocks and oil and gas stocks fell, while WSB concept stocks and airline stocks were the top gainers.


Comment: U.S. stocks closed lower on Monday in a volatile session, with Exxon Mobil and other energy stocks lower, while Boeing rose, as investors digested the largest monthly gain in two years for U.S. stocks in July.


Suggestion: go short at 12923.700 of the Nasdaq index, target point at 12605.900


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US ISM manufacturing performs well for 26th straight month, new orders rate falls


The U.S. July ISM manufacturing PMI recorded 52.8, the 26th consecutive month of good performance. The U.S. July ISM new orders index fell to the lowest level since May 2020; the U.S. July ISM manufacturing price payment index fell from August 2020. the lowest level since a month. The agency sees signs that the rate of new orders has fallen, as experts grow increasingly concerned about excess inventories and continued record delivery times.


The manufacturing PMIs of France, Germany and Europe both fell below the line of prosperity and decline, and the manufacturing industry is falling into a growing downturn


The final value of the French manufacturing PMI in July was 49.5, the lowest since May 2020; the final value of the German manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3, the lowest since June 2020; the final value of the euro zone's July manufacturing PMI was recorded It was 49.8, the lowest since June 2020. Institutional analysis shows that the rate of decline in new industrial orders in the euro zone has reached the largest level since the debt crisis in 2012, excluding the months of the epidemic blockade, and worse situations may appear.


Treasury raises quarterly borrowing forecast to $444 billion.


The U.S. Treasury Department raised its forecast for federal government borrowing in the three months through September, as the Fed's balance sheet reduction boosted Treasury's need for private sector financing. Quarterly borrowing estimates were raised by about $262 billion to $444 billion, compared with the original estimate of $182 billion, and the September-end cash balance estimate was unchanged at $650 billion, according to a Treasury Department press release on Monday. The change reflects the fact that the Treasury Department did not assume in May that the Fed would reduce its Treasury holdings.

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