Market News June 6 Futures Market Morning Commentary
June 6 Futures Market Morning Commentary
June 6 Futures Market Morning Commentary
2022-06-06
10215
1. The main news of the day
1) International News US non-farm payrolls increased by 390,000 in May, higher than expected by 320,000; US unemployment rate was 3.6% in May, compared with 3.5% expected; US average hourly wages in May increased by 5.2% year-on-year, expected was 5.2%. The U.S. jobs report for May showed U.S. job growth remained healthy, with labor force participation rising and wage growth moderate. This combined performance should convince the Fed that it can continue to raise interest rates at a rate of 50 basis points ahead of time to reach the neutral rate level. Given that June and July are largely settled, the report increases the odds of a 50bps rate hike in September as well. To gauge how far the Fed is likely to preempt rate hikes, the next data to watch is next Friday's CPI report.
2) Domestic news According to the China Manned Space Engineering Office, at 10:44 GMT+8 on June 5, 2022, the Long March 2F Yao 14 carrier rocket carrying the Shenzhou 14 manned spacecraft was launched at the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center. About 577 seconds after the ignition and launch, the Shenzhou 14 manned spacecraft successfully separated from the rocket and entered the predetermined orbit. The flight crew was in good condition and the launch was a complete success.
3) Industry news Saudi Arabia will increase the price of all types of crude oil sold to Asia in July, and the price of Arab light crude oil for Asian customers in July will be raised to a premium of $6.5 per barrel over the price of Dubai Oman.
Second, the main varieties of early comments
1) Finance
【Stock Index】
Stock index: During the Dragon Boat Festival, the capital market at home and abroad was relatively calm as a whole, and no major risk events occurred. During this period, the US Dow rose slightly by 0.28%, the Nasdaq rose by 0.22%, the S&P rose by 0.21%, and the A50 futures rose by 0.15%. It is expected that the opening of A-shares will be less volatile after the holiday. Before the holiday, A-shares continued to fluctuate and rose. The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 weakened. The transaction volume of the two cities was 891.7 billion yuan. In terms of capital, the net inflow of northbound funds was 1.246 billion yuan. On June 1, the financing balance increased by 477 million yuan to 1,444.271 billion yuan. The current economic situation is relatively severe. Under the stimulus of the national bottom-up policy, the stock index has stepped out of the rebound trend. Before the economy has a clear inflection point, it is expected that the stock index will remain volatile. In terms of operation, it is recommended to buy long on dips in the short term.
【National debt】
Treasury bonds: Continued to fall, the yield of 10-year treasury bonds rose by 0.77bp to 2.8075%. The central bank continued to carry out 10 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, Shibor remained low, and funds were relaxed. In May, various PMI indexes generally rebounded, and the market sentiment improved after the epidemic was brought under control. Shanghai issued an action plan to speed up economic recovery and revitalization, resume access to residential quarters, and fully resume work and production. A package of policies and measures to speed up the stabilization of the economy was deployed by the National Standing Committee, and credit policies continued to be relaxed in various regions. The central bank and other ministries issued an announcement to facilitate foreign institutional investors to invest in China's bond market to promote the opening of the bond market to the outside world. Overseas, the Bank of Canada raised interest rates again by 50bp. The European Central Bank is expected to start raising interest rates in July. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates significantly to suppress inflation. As the epidemic is gradually brought under control, the issuance of special bonds is accelerated, and measures to stabilize growth continue to be implemented. It is expected that the price of treasury bond futures will continue to adjust. It is recommended to focus on short-selling and focus on cross-variety arbitrage opportunities.
2) Energize
【crude】
Crude oil: The market believes that OPEC's plan to increase production will not immediately improve the global supply shortage, and oil prices continue to rise in external disks. The peak driving season in the United States has begun, and the demand for transportation fuel has surged, and the price of refined oil has exacerbated the rally in crude oil futures. U.S. crude and refined product inventories fell sharply last week, partly reflecting stronger demand due to the arrival of the peak summer driving season. A meeting of OPEC and its allies on production cuts on Thursday decided to split the September output increase evenly between July and August to ease the fuel crunch. But analysts believe that while the move may help fill the supply gap, it will not be enough to fully offset the expected loss of crude supply. In addition, OPEC and its allies to cut production have struggled to meet their output increase targets in recent months. Some institutions estimate that in June and July, the actual monthly increase in crude oil production of OPEC and its allies to cut production was about 230,000 barrels per day, and it has dropped to less than 100,000 barrels per day since August. In the week ended June 3, 574 oil wells were drilled online in the United States, the same as the previous week and an increase of 215 over the same period last year.
【Methanol】
Methanol: The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol)-to-olefins units this week was 84.78%, down 0.58 percentage points from last week. This week, except for the decrease in the load of individual installations along the coast, most of the starts fluctuated little, and the overall start of domestic CTO/MTO installations dropped slightly. As of June 2, the operating load of the overall domestic methanol plant was 72.94%, up 0.86 percentage points from last week and 1.30 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating load in the northwest region was 86.09%, up 2.19 percentage points from It rose by 7.24 percentage points in the same period last year. Overall, the methanol inventory in coastal areas was 981,500 tons, down 12,000 tons or 1.21% from last week, up 24.15% year-on-year. The overall supply of methanol in the coastal areas is estimated to be around 282,000 tons. It is estimated that from June 3 to June 19, the arrival of imported cargoes in coastal areas will be 679,000-680,000 tons.
【asphalt】
Asphalt: Asphalt 2209's main contract has basically been released due to the credit stimulus policy, and the market has begun to pull back slightly a few days ago. It closed at 4,637 yuan per ton on June 2, up 21 yuan per ton, or 0.45%. On May 31, the State Council issued the "Notice on Printing and Distributing a Package of Policies and Measures to Stabilize the Economy". The notice proposes that the people's governments of all provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government should rely on the previous efforts and appropriate efforts to promote the implementation of the "Package of Policy Measures for Solidly Stabilizing the Economy" as soon as possible to ensure that they are implemented in a timely manner. and so on to have a greater policy effect. As of this week, the operating rate of domestic asphalt plants was 26.65%, down 0.51% from the previous week. At the same time, the inventory rate of domestic asphalt refineries reached 37.98%, down 1.49% from the previous week; the domestic social inventory rate recorded 43.7%, down 0.4% from the previous week. From the demand side, but with the support of the cost and supply side, the flood season after the Dragon Boat Festival is coming, and the market demand may fall. Shanghai will be fully unblocked from the 1st, and the living needs of residents will be basically released, which will benefit domestic oil prices. However, considering that the rainy season in the south is approaching, and the expectation of infrastructure construction in the second quarter has passed the high point, we believe that the asphalt futures price has been in a sideways trend recently, and it is recommended to buy more on dips.
【pulp】
Pulp: The last trading day before the Pulp Festival rebounded sharply. Metsä Fibre announced that its AKI pulp mill was forced to suspend production due to the failure of the recovery boiler, and it is expected to reduce its supply to China by 50% in June. The news supports the pulp market; the price of imported wood pulp is still strong, and the cost also continues to support the domestic market. The price of downstream household paper has risen, the price of cultural paper and white cardboard has shown signs of loosening, the off-season atmosphere has increased, and the port inventory has accumulated in a narrow range, and the market demand is expected to be pessimistic. In the short term, due to the high import cost, there is still a certain support below the pulp price, and high fluctuations are the mainstay.
【rubber】
Rubber: Rubber continued to rebound last week, and the spot full latex reached 12925, up 50. The supply of foreign production areas continued to increase, the price of raw materials fell slightly, the domestic raw material end was relatively strong to support the rubber price in the far month, the downstream construction data rebounded, the market had high expectations for economic stimulus policies, the Shanghai area fully resumed work, and consumer services such as supermarkets and department stores were opened. And the recovery of transportation has strengthened the demand support, the domestic fundamentals have improved, and the continuous rise in the price of thick milk in Hainan has promoted the strength of the domestic whole milk price. It is expected that the recent trend of Hujiao will continue to be strong. .
【Polyolefin】
Polyolefins (LL, PP): Linear LL, Sinopec is stable, and PetroChina is partially raised by 100. Coal chemical industry 8760 reached the source, and the transaction rebounded. Drawing PP, Sinopec's part is lowered by 100, and PetroChina's part is raised by 50. The rebound in polyolefins slowed on Friday. From a fundamental point of view, Shanghai has issued a policy to stimulate the economy by resuming work, and the resumption of work in the Yangtze River Delta will promote the recovery of demand. 6-1 cities lifted the lockdown, and the economic recovery accelerated. The petrochemical inventory of polyolefin itself was stable and slightly lower. Although the news of OPEC's increase in production was released during the small holiday, crude oil continued to rebound. From the perspective of this week, polyolefins pay attention to the rhythm of terminal purchases and the price fluctuation trend of crude oil. From a short-term perspective, it may rebound or enter a high level, and rallies can moderately reduce the long configuration.
【Polyester】
Polyester: PTA or rebound, MEG or rebound. Crude oil prices on the overseas cost side rose again, and the epidemic's disruption to terminal demand may gradually diminish. In the industry, the start-up of PTA has fallen sharply, the processing fee is low, and there may be unplanned equipment maintenance; some ethylene glycol short-stop plants are restarted, and the import volume is expected to decline. On the demand side, the recovery kinetic energy of the downstream polyester and terminal looms is insufficient. In terms of inventory, PTA went to warehouses slightly, and MEG ports kept warehouses. On the whole, cost dominates price, downstream interference is gradually weakened, and attention is paid to the cost end and changes in polyester demand.
3) black
【Steel】
Steel: During the Dragon Boat Festival, the price of scrap steel was temporarily stable, and the market sentiment was relatively stable. Under the expectation that the resumption of work and production in Shanghai will make up for the repressed demand in the early stage, the steel disk rebounded rapidly. From a practical point of view, the watch needs to recover to more than 3.2 million tons, and the slope of the total thread inventory depletion is significantly steeper than the previous period. If the recovery process of demand can be continued, and there is no obvious increase in output under the policy guidance of crude steel level control, the process of destocking of threads may run through June, bringing support to prices. But at the same time, there is no sign of systematic repair on the real estate side for the time being, and the rigid demand for real estate steel needs to be treated with caution. The space for rebound repair in the short term is temporarily concerned with the cost of electric furnaces.
【iron ore】
Iron ore: Singapore's iron ore swaps tend to be strong during the holidays. The market's expectations for stable macro growth have continued to improve recently, and more policies are expected to be implemented gradually in the later period. In terms of fundamentals, the monthly average of the global shipments of the four major mines has reached the level of the same period last year. Compared with the year-on-year decrease of about 8% from February to March, it has significantly improved. At the same time, the imported iron ore arrivals at the North Port have continued to recover, and the iron ore port inventory has decreased. The storage speed has eased. Considering that it is difficult for molten iron to maintain a high level for a long time, the weakening trend of iron ore demand is difficult to change. From the perspective of the disk, based on the fundamentals, the price is expected to be under pressure due to the rebound in medium and long-term shipments. However, more transactions may be based on macro expectations and the valuation logic of the capital.
【Coke】
Bifocals: Prices rose sharply before the holiday. In terms of policy, this year's policy has preempted coal price regulation. It is expected that coal supply will maintain steady growth this year, so coking coal production is still expected to be released. In terms of coke, the profit of coke enterprises is currently meager, and the scope of losses of coke enterprises in some regions has expanded. Due to the rigid demand of downstream steel mills, and the active purchase of goods by intermediate speculative traders, the mood of coke enterprises has improved. In terms of coking coal, the current profit of coal mines is relatively good, and due to factors such as safety inspections in some areas, the supply of coking coal is relatively tight, which supports the relatively strong price of coking coal. From the perspective of the disk, it is expected that the coke will rise after more transactions in the current market have stabilized, and it is expected that the market price is expected to show a strong trend.
【Manganese Silicon】
Manganese and silicon: On the last trading day before the holiday, the main contract of manganese and silicon fluctuated and strengthened, finally closing at 8,530 yuan/ton. The Jiangsu market price was slightly raised by RMB 20/ton to RMB 8,580/ton, and the purchase price of Hegang in June was RMB 8,450/ton. The current spot cost of northern manufacturers is 8185 yuan / ton. Some factories that stopped production in the early stage have completed maintenance. Recently, the operating level of factories has rebounded slightly. Guangxi's incremental electricity consumption enjoys preferential electricity prices, and it is necessary to pay attention to the resumption of production of local factories. The output of crude steel is restricted by the reduction policy and the low profit of steel mills, and it is difficult for the downstream demand of manganese and silicon to increase significantly. On the whole, the market inventory needs to be digested, and the price of manganese and silicon may still be under pressure.
【Ferrosilicon】
Ferrosilicon: On the last trading day before the festival, the main contract of ferrosilicon dropped slightly and then rebounded and strengthened, finally closing at 9390 yuan/ton. The price of Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon qualified block remained at 9250 yuan / ton. At present, the cost of the main production area is around 8,000 yuan/ton, the overall profit of the industry is acceptable, and the production level of ferrosilicon is still high. Crude steel output is constrained by the reduction policy and the low profit of steel mills, the increase in the demand for ferrosilicon by steel mills is limited, and the support for prices by non-steel demand may gradually weaken. On the whole, the market supply remains at a high level, and the rebound of ferrosilicon prices may be limited. Considering the cost, there may still be room for a return.
【Power Coal】
Thermal coal: On the last trading day before the holiday, the main thermal coal contract ran in shock, closing at 879 yuan/ton. Under the policy of guaranteeing supply, the output and transportation capacity are inclined to the long-term cooperation, and the coal resources in the market are tight. The 5500K coal price in Qingang has been raised by 10 yuan / ton to 1300 yuan / ton, and the inventory of Bohai Rim ports has continued to rise. Coal production continued to be high, but the supplementary effect of imported coal on supply was still relatively limited. Temperatures have risen, industrial construction has gradually resumed, and the daily consumption of power plants has rebounded from a low level. On the whole, the coal price of the port is under pressure under the price limit policy, but the downstream demand will increase as the peak season approaches, and the tight coal resources in the market will still support the coal price.
4) Metal
【Precious Metals】
Precious Metals: The non-farm payroll report was stronger than expected, the dollar rebounded again, and gold and silver were under pressure. Several Fed officials continued to comment on rate hikes last week, saying that they should continue to raise interest rates to fight inflation, but even Bullard, who has been hawkish, only suggested a 50bp hike. Under inflationary pressure, there is a high probability that interest rates will continue to increase by 50bp in June and July. The current market will enter a state of superposition of de facto rapid monetary tightening and tightening expectations peaks, but considering that the market's pricing of the pace of interest rate hikes is already close to the peak, the Fed For the time being, it is difficult to convey a more hawkish policy path than current market expectations (a rate hike to 2.75-3% this year), after a speech by Fed officials may signal a slowdown in rate hikes in September. In terms of transaction logic, the current market is pricing in the possibility of an economic recession to a certain extent, but despite the negative GDP growth in the first quarter, the endogenous growth such as consumption and private investment remain resilient, and it may be too early to hype a recession. In terms of rhythm, under the rapid tightening cycle in the second quarter, gold is under pressure to a certain extent, and the overall may remain weak and fluctuated. After the third quarter, if inflation can show signs of control and economic data show weakness, the Fed may release a marginal dovish signal, and gold and silver may perform better.
【copper】
Copper: Copper prices closed higher for the holiday due to the fire at the Lasbambas mine, but there is a view that the start of the market was far behind the time of the incident. Judging from the current situation, downstream demand has gradually recovered, and logistics has improved compared with the previous period. The introduction of domestic support measures to support consumption such as car going to the countryside and tax reduction and exemption has made the market full of expectations for the recovery of demand and demand. The spot concentrate processing fee is around US$80, and the concentrate supply is generally performing well. Inventories on the LME and the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued to decline. After the sudden rise in copper prices, the short-term copper prices may fall back, and in the medium and long term, they are still supported by the demand for new energy. It is recommended to pay attention to the domestic epidemic situation, spot demand, copper downstream construction, inventory and other conditions.
【Zinc】
Zinc: LME zinc prices fluctuated during the holidays. With the domestic epidemic under control and downstream production gradually recovering, domestic demand is expected to return to normal, and market expectations have also changed. LME inventories fell slightly, and spot premiums were slightly higher. The impact of European smelting production cuts on supply is particularly significant. In the short term, zinc prices may fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to pay attention to downstream construction, inventory, spot premiums and discounts, and smelting starts.
【aluminum】
Aluminum: Aluminum prices may continue to rebound. The concerns of the purchasing market brought about by the South China warehouse incident have been eased. In terms of industry, on June 2, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 910,000 tons, and the destocking continued to be 44,000 tons. On the supply side, alumina production capacity gradually increased in May, the growth rate of electrolytic aluminum operating capacity slowed down, and logistics and transportation in East China's Wuxi region have been effectively restored. On the demand side, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises has maintained a month-on-month increase, and downstream aluminum profile, recycled aluminum alloy, and aluminum cable enterprises have started to improve. In April, aluminum exports increased significantly year-on-year. On the whole, downstream demand is gradually recovering, and it is recommended to choose to buy on dips.
【nickel】
Nickel: Nickel prices are expected to rebound. At present, the tight supply of pure nickel in overseas markets has not changed, and overseas nickel inventories are still at a low level. Domestic imports of pure nickel have turned profitable, but the domestic supply of electrolytic nickel is expected to increase, the amount of imported ferronickel from Indonesia and other countries has dropped, the supply of high-grade nickel matte and wet-process intermediates has increased, and domestic nickel sulfate production capacity has gradually been released. Recently, domestic logistics and transportation have reached a certain level improve. In terms of stainless steel, downstream demand is expected to pick up, but it is still affected by the epidemic, and consumption is slightly insufficient. On the whole, supply is loose, demand is to be recovered, and nickel prices fluctuate at a high level.
【tin】
Tin: Tin prices rebounded in shock. The import window of tin ingots in overseas markets continued to open, and domestic imports of tin increased significantly in May. In overseas markets, tin production in Southeast Asia, Malaysia and other places has basically recovered, but there are still disturbances in other regions. The import of tin concentrate has increased significantly after the domestic dumping of reserves in Myanmar. At present, the domestic refined tin production capacity is expected to increase after maintenance. Imported tin ingots bring about loose supply expectations, and the consumption of semiconductors and other goods is relatively good. Inventories remain low or support prices. On the whole, the supply of tin prices is expected to be loose, and the Shanghai tin range fluctuates widely.
5) Agricultural products
【cotton】
Cotton: The outer disk holiday is weaker. The main cotton producing areas of the United States ushered in precipitation, the planting progress was ahead of last year, and the external disk fell under pressure. Although the domestic epidemic situation has been gradually brought under control and the yarn purchase and sales have improved, the downstream start-up rate has not increased significantly. In the short term, Zheng cotton has the possibility of repairing after the continuous sharp decline, but the height is expected to be limited. Next, the domestic textile industry is in the off-season, the foreign trade export situation is severe under the cotton ban in Xinjiang, and the pressure on gins to repay loans continues to increase, and the expectation of medium and long-term decline in cotton prices remains unchanged.
【White sugar】
Sugar: Raw sugar edged lower during the holiday season. In general, the global sugar market is concerned about Brazil's fuel tax policy, sugarcane crushing volume in the new season, and the price of ethanol to guide the sugar production ratio of sugar mills in the new season. Fluctuations in crude oil prices will also have an impact on sugar prices. In the new season, the increase in domestic sugar production costs and the reduction in production will benefit the price of polysaccharides. In the near future, it is necessary to pay attention to the impact on consumption after the domestic epidemic subsides. Strategically, due to domestic production reduction and import losses, the current investment value of sugar is increasing, and the SR09 contract can be bought at 5800-6000 on dips.
【Pig】
Live pigs: The number of purchases and storages was low, and the futures of live pigs fell first and then rose, and the spot rose slightly. According to the data of Yongyi Consulting, the average price of domestic live pigs was 15.62 yuan/kg, down 0.07 yuan/kg from the previous day. In general, the epidemic prevention situation has gradually improved. The domestic pork supply guarantee policy and the hoarding demand of residents have made the spot price rebound recently, and the market sentiment has improved. At the same time, due to the low ratio of pig grains in the long run, the downward space for pig prices is limited, but the current price difference is large in the current period, and the long-term reversal of the disk still needs to wait, and we will be concerned about policy changes in the later period. Short-term investors can deal with shocks, while long-term investors can wait for a price correction to gradually enter the market.
【apple】
Apple: Apple futures fluctuated throughout the day. In terms of spot, according to the data of my agricultural product network, the market price of Shandong Qixia 80# paper bag in the primary and secondary market is 4.1 yuan/catties, which is the same as the previous day; the market price of Shaanxi Luochuan 70# paper bag semi-commodity is 4 yuan/catties, which is the same as the previous day. day is flat. As of June 2, the national cold storage volume was 256,800 tons, and the national cold storage destocking rate was 80.27%, which was basically the same as last week. Strategically, wait for the bagging situation to gradually become clear by the end of June. Investors can wait for the 2210 contract to pull back and buy on dips near the 60-day line.
【grease】
Oil: Mapan closed down slightly during the holiday, closing at 6,445 ringgit per ton on June 3. RVO policy was bullish, and US soybean oil closed up at 81.93 cents/lb. EPA raised the total renewable fuel blending obligation to 18.84 billion gallons in 2021, lowered the blending requirements for advanced biofuels and cellulosic fuels, and lowered the 2022 renewable fuel blending obligation to 20.63 billion gallons, all of which came from The blending obligations of cellulosic fuels and biomass diesel among advanced biofuels have not been adjusted, and the blending obligations of conventional renewable fuels based on ethanol have also increased steadily. EPA also officially rejected the 2016-2021 period. All 69 small refinery exemption applications. On June 5, the Indonesian government set the ratio of palm oil export to domestic sales at 5:1, which will increase exports. As of June 5, a total of 251 licenses have been issued to 23 companies to export 300,000 tons of palm oil. The government said it would revise the export tax on palm oil. At present, Indonesia's palm oil exports have not returned to the previous normal level. Although the export ratio has increased, it is also necessary to pay attention to the progress of subsequent export license issuance. Reuters and Bloomberg estimated that Malaysia's palm oil production in May was 1.4 million tons, down 4%, exports were 1.27 million tons, up 21% month-on-month, and inventories were 1.51-1.54 million tons, down 6%-7%. In recent months, the domestic palm oil import inversion deepened, the spot price remained tight, and the basis and monthly differences were relatively strong. Pay attention to the follow-up export policy of Indonesia and the recovery of Ukrainian grain and oil exports.
【Soybean meal】
Soybean and rapeseed meal: During the holiday, U.S. soybeans rose and fell, and finally closed down at 1699.5 cents/bu. Less than the previous week's 280,000 tons, net sales of new crops 280,000 tons, less than the previous week's 440,000 tons. U.S. soybean crush was 5.43 million tons (181 million bushels combined) in April, compared with 5.79 million tons (193 million bushels combined) last month and 5.1 million tons (170 million bushels combined) a year earlier. In the next period of time, there will be more rainfall in the northern parts of the United States, especially in North Dakota and Minnesota, and the temperature will rise and be close to normal. Domestic soybeans in June are expected to arrive in Hong Kong more, soybean meal continues to accumulate, and the spot basis continues to weaken. However, the arrival in Hong Kong in July and later is still relatively small, and the corresponding spot basis is relatively strong. Recently, the price of domestic rapeseed has increased a lot, and the crushing profit has narrowed. After the domestic epidemic situation is gradually controlled, the demand for aquatic products is waiting to recover, and the short-term soybean and rapeseed meal spread may continue to fall.
(Article source: Shenyin Wanguo Futures)
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