International oil prices hit a new high since the beginning of August, but investors must be wary of three negative aspects

On Tuesday (September 14), international oil prices continued to hit a new high since the beginning of August because of concerns that another storm this week might affect the production of Texas. After Hurricane Ida caused severe damage to the Gulf Coast area, The U.S. petroleum industry is striving to restore normal production levels.

GMT+8 14:22, NYMEX crude oil futures rose 0.84% to 71.04 US dollars / barrel; ICE Brent crude oil futures rose 0.78% to 74.08 US dollars / barrel. The two cities respectively hit a new high of US$71.06/barrel since August 3 and a new high of US$74.11/barrel since August 2.


The U.S. Gulf of Mexico oil platform began to evacuate staff on Monday (September 13). According to the National Hurricane Center, tropical storm "Nicholas" (Nicholas) was moving northward at a speed of 70 miles per hour in the waters off the southern coast of Texas on Monday. It may evolve into a hurricane before making landfall.

Satoru Yoshida, a commodity analyst at Rakuten Securities, said: “Investors are worried that as they try to figure out how long crude oil production will be affected by Ada, Nicholas will further damage the production environment in the Gulf Coast region.”

"Nicholas" is the second hurricane this month to threaten energy facilities on the U.S. Gulf Coast. In late August and early September, Hurricane Ada caused severe damage to crude oil production and refining facilities. According to data from the Bureau of Security and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE), two weeks after Hurricane Ida crossed the border, more than 40% of the oil production capacity in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico was still suspended on Monday.

The price increase also stems from concerns about the disruption of Libyan oil. The National Oil Company of Libya (NOC) stated that loading operations at the Es Sider and Ras Lanuf oil terminals in Libya resumed last Friday after a one-day stoppage. However, an engineer at Hariga port said that the port is still closed due to anti-epidemic activities.

Three aspects are bad

However, Hiroyuki Kikukawa, general manager of Nissan’s research department, predicts that oil price increases may be unsustainable: “Market upside will be limited because the summer driving season in the United States is gradually over, and the United States and China plan to release strategic oil reserves, and Iran may resume oil exports. , May increase supply."

The US Department of Energy said the government agreed to use the National Emergency Reserve to sell crude oil to eight companies to raise funds for the federal budget, including ExxonMobil and Chevron. This move is expected to ease the tight supply caused by the hurricane ravaged the Gulf of Mexico.

The U.S. Department of Energy stated in a statement issued on September 10 that these contracts totaling 20 million barrels of oil will be transferred from the strategic oil reserves of Texas and Louisiana between October 1 and December 15. Site delivery.

Earlier this month, the U.S. Department of Energy authorized a total of 3.3 million barrels of strategic reserve crude oil loans to Exxon Mobil and Placid Refinery's refineries in the Baton Rouge area to help them deal with oil from the Gulf of Mexico. Supply shortages.

Previously, China had announced plans to release oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). China hopes to continue to maintain crude oil imports at a level that will not add bullish factors to prices, so it has decided to release crude oil reserves to curb potential import growth.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reached an agreement with Iran last Sunday (September 12) to solve the "most pressing problem" of both parties, namely, overdue maintenance to keep monitoring equipment running, which ignited Iran and Western countries more widely Hope for new negotiations on the agreement.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) monthly drilling productivity report released on Monday showed that U.S. shale oil production in October is expected to increase by approximately 66,000 barrels per day to 8.1 million barrels per day, the highest since April 2020.

The Permian Basin, which produces the largest shale oil, has the largest increase. Data shows that crude oil production in this area is expected to increase by 53,000 barrels per day in October to 4.8 million barrels per day, the highest since March last year. Production in most other shale oil producing areas is expected to remain stable or increase slightly.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on Monday lowered its global oil demand forecast for the fourth quarter of 2021, due to the raging new crown mutant strain Delta. At the same time, the demand for 2022 will be raised to 4.15 million barrels per day from the 3.28 million barrels per day expected last month.