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Market News International oil prices continue to pull back; but the supply and demand gap persists, and the United States can’t help but OPEC’s “slow work”
International oil prices continue to pull back; but the supply and demand gap persists, and the United States can’t help but OPEC’s “slow work”
On September 29, the international oil price continued its overnight correction. As a result, the previously announced US API inventory unexpectedly increased, and the number of global new crown cases continued to increase. However, some regions are facing a gasoline shortage, and the oil-producing countries are not willing to increase production, which is expected to limit the downside of oil prices. Barclays Bank raised its forecast for 2022 oil prices on Tuesday, citing the continued recovery in demand that may widen the supply gap. The limited threat of US production growth to market share means that OPEC+ oil-producing countries have no sense of urgency.
2021-09-29
8939
On Wednesday (September 29), international oil prices continued their overnight pullback momentum. As a result, the previously announced US API inventory unexpectedly increased, and global new crown cases continued to increase. However, some regions are facing a gasoline shortage, and the oil-producing countries are not willing to increase production, which is expected to limit the downside of oil prices.
At 15:15 GMT+8, NYMEX crude oil futures fell 1.90% to US$73.86/barrel; ICE Brent crude oil futures fell 1.81% to US$76.93/barrel.
NYMEX crude oil and Brent crude oil closed down 1.48% and 1.53% respectively overnight, but the intraday highs of 76.67 USD/barrel since July 6 and the high of 79.95 USD/barrel since October 22, 2018 were respectively refreshed. Data released overnight by the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed that US crude oil and distillate stocks unexpectedly increased last week, and gasoline stocks increased more than expected.
API data shows that as of the week of September 24, crude oil inventories increased by 4.127 million barrels, an expected decrease of 2.333 million barrels; gasoline inventories increased by 3.555 million barrels, an expected increase of 1.233 million barrels; distillate stocks increased by 2.483 million barrels, an expected decrease of 1.612 million bucket. The official inventory data of the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) will be released at 22:30 GMT+8 on Wednesday.
Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at OANDA, said: "Relative Strength Index... Both contracts were in the overbought zone yesterday, and speculators are highly likely to push back."
But oil prices have been surging before, because major economies have recovered from the epidemic blockade, fuel demand has rebounded, and some oil-producing countries have experienced supply disruptions.
OPEC said on Tuesday (September 28) that oil demand will grow strongly as the global economy recovers from the epidemic in the next few years. The transition is underway.
ANZ Bank’s Research Department said in a report: “Although the supply background has not changed much, when the oil price reaches US$80/barrel, the pressure on OPEC+ countries to increase production quotas will increase.”
Barclays Bank raised its forecast for 2022 oil prices on Tuesday, citing the continued recovery in demand that may widen the supply gap. The bank raised its 2022 Brent crude oil price forecast by $9 to $77 per barrel, partly because of "decreased confidence" in the restoration of the US-Iran nuclear agreement.
Barclays said in a report: “OPEC+ relaxes its production cuts, but the oil supply gap cannot be filled at least until the first quarter of 2022, because demand recovery may continue to exceed the rate of capacity release, and some oil-producing countries have limited capacity to increase production.” The agency also pointed out that the threat of US production growth to market share is limited, which means that OPEC+ oil-producing countries have no sense of urgency.
After Brent crude oil broke through $80 per barrel for the first time in nearly three years, White House Press Secretary Psaki said on Tuesday that the White House is in communication with OPEC on oil prices and is studying various tools to solve its cost issues.
At 15:15 GMT+8, NYMEX crude oil futures fell 1.90% to US$73.86/barrel; ICE Brent crude oil futures fell 1.81% to US$76.93/barrel.
NYMEX crude oil and Brent crude oil closed down 1.48% and 1.53% respectively overnight, but the intraday highs of 76.67 USD/barrel since July 6 and the high of 79.95 USD/barrel since October 22, 2018 were respectively refreshed. Data released overnight by the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed that US crude oil and distillate stocks unexpectedly increased last week, and gasoline stocks increased more than expected.
API data shows that as of the week of September 24, crude oil inventories increased by 4.127 million barrels, an expected decrease of 2.333 million barrels; gasoline inventories increased by 3.555 million barrels, an expected increase of 1.233 million barrels; distillate stocks increased by 2.483 million barrels, an expected decrease of 1.612 million bucket. The official inventory data of the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) will be released at 22:30 GMT+8 on Wednesday.
Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at OANDA, said: "Relative Strength Index... Both contracts were in the overbought zone yesterday, and speculators are highly likely to push back."
But oil prices have been surging before, because major economies have recovered from the epidemic blockade, fuel demand has rebounded, and some oil-producing countries have experienced supply disruptions.
OPEC said on Tuesday (September 28) that oil demand will grow strongly as the global economy recovers from the epidemic in the next few years. The transition is underway.
ANZ Bank’s Research Department said in a report: “Although the supply background has not changed much, when the oil price reaches US$80/barrel, the pressure on OPEC+ countries to increase production quotas will increase.”
Barclays Bank raised its forecast for 2022 oil prices on Tuesday, citing the continued recovery in demand that may widen the supply gap. The bank raised its 2022 Brent crude oil price forecast by $9 to $77 per barrel, partly because of "decreased confidence" in the restoration of the US-Iran nuclear agreement.
Barclays said in a report: “OPEC+ relaxes its production cuts, but the oil supply gap cannot be filled at least until the first quarter of 2022, because demand recovery may continue to exceed the rate of capacity release, and some oil-producing countries have limited capacity to increase production.” The agency also pointed out that the threat of US production growth to market share is limited, which means that OPEC+ oil-producing countries have no sense of urgency.
After Brent crude oil broke through $80 per barrel for the first time in nearly three years, White House Press Secretary Psaki said on Tuesday that the White House is in communication with OPEC on oil prices and is studying various tools to solve its cost issues.
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