Inflation data CPI is higher than expected while oil prices reach highs in more than two years

Crude oil futures were lower in Asian trading hours on Friday. New York Mercantile Exchange July crude oil futures, the transaction price fell by 0.85% before the deadline, trading at USD69.69 per barrel.

The low of the previous period was USD69.67 per barrel. Crude oil is expected to find support at USD68.47 and USD70.64 will meet resistance.

The August transaction price of Nymex Brent crude oil fell 0.88% to USD71.88 per barrel; while the contract price of Brent crude oil and crude oil was set at USD2.19 per barrel.

Analysts predict that crude oil prices will gradually rise in the future. Ryan said that BCA Research predicts that the average price of Brent crude oil will reach US$73/barrel in 2022, and the average price of WTI crude oil will be between US$70-71/barrel. The company also predicts that the average price of Brent crude oil in 2023 will be $78/barrel.

Will the oil price soar to $100?

Ryan said that in addition, with the decline in capital expenditures in the oil industry since 2014, the possibility of oil prices moving to 100 US dollars per barrel or higher has increased.

In 2008, oil prices climbed to an all-time high of more than US$145 per barrel.

Phil Flynn, an analyst at PriceFuturesGroup, believes that oil prices may reach $100/barrel within a few years, because climate issues and the transition from fossil fuels will make oil very expensive.

On Thursday (June 10), the U.S. government lifted sanctions on an Iranian oil official and two other Iranians associated with the oil industry, including the executive director and general manager of the National Iranian Oil Company Ahmad Ghalehbani, and lifted them. Sanctions on certain entities located in Dubai. US oil futures subsequently plunged in a short-term.

U.S. lifts sanctions on Iranian oil officials

OPEC’s monthly oil market report released on Thursday showed that with the gradual relaxation of production cuts beginning last month, crude oil production in May 2021 increased by 390,000 barrels per day to 25.46 million barrels per day. The largest monthly increase in oil production was in Saudi Arabia, the largest producer, followed by two of the three OPEC members exempted from the OPEC+ agreement-Iran and Venezuela.

Libya, the third country not affected by production cuts, also had an increase in crude oil production in May from April. In April, due to force majeure at an oil export terminal for several days, crude oil production declined.

Saudi Arabia is the world's largest oil exporter and the leader of the OPEC+ alliance. Second-hand data obtained by OPEC shows that Saudi Arabia's oil production in May increased by 345,000 barrels per day to 8.466 million barrels per day. In addition to the higher production allowed by the agreement, Saudi Arabia last month also began to cancel the unilateral additional 1 million barrels/day plan implemented between February and April. Saudi Arabia is gradually easing additional production cuts between May and July, with monthly output in May and June both increasing by 250,000 barrels per day.

Saudi Arabia claims that its production in May was higher than the data learned by OPEC. Saudi Arabia told OPEC that its crude oil production increased by 410,000 barrels per day from April to an average of 8.544 million barrels per day in May.

On the other hand, Nigeria and Angola had the largest decline in output last month, at 72,000 barrels per day and 60,000 barrels per day, respectively.