India is set to ban Bitcoin, and bitcoin hovers around $60,000 (With Trading Strategy)

Bitcoin consolidated around $60,000 on Monday, taking a breather from the weekend’s record high as investors prepared for inflation worries and U.S. stimulus spending to propel it even higher.

Bitcoin rose 2.76% to $58318.015:50(GMT+8) on Monday.

Bitcoin has more than doubled in 2021, after quadrupling last year.

“Investment by institutional investors and corporates is increasing. It’s what I call the financialisation of bitcoin,” said Masafumi Yamamoto, chief currency strategist at Mizuho Securities.

“It’s becoming an asset that investors can no longer ignore.”

Bitcoin’s weekend surge was helped by an improvement in risk appetite in financial markets after President Joe Biden signed his $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus package into law and ordered an acceleration in vaccinations.

That momentum carried into thinner markets on the weekend, with technical factors magnifying the move higher, according to Justin d’Anethan, sales manager at digital asset company Diginex in Hong Kong.

“The crypto market is derivatives heavy,” he noted.

India will propose a law banning cryptocurrencies, fining anyone trading in the country or even holding such digital assets, a senior government official told Reuters in a potential blow to millions of investors piling into the red-hot asset class.

The bill, one of the world’s strictest policies against cryptocurrencies, would criminalize possession, issuance, mining, trading and transferring crypto-assets, said the official, who has direct knowledge of the plan.

The measure is in line with a January government agenda that called for banning private virtual currencies such as bitcoin while building a framework for an official digital currency. But recent government comments had raised investors’ hopes that the authorities might go easier on the booming market.

Instead, the bill would give holders of cryptocurrencies up to six months to liquidate, after which penalties will be levied, said the official, who asked not to be named as the contents of the bill are not public.

Officials are confident of getting the bill enacted into law as Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government holds a comfortable majority in parliament.

If the ban becomes law, India would be the first major economy to make holding cryptocurrency illegal. Even China, which has banned mining and trading, does not penalize possession.

‘Greed’ Over ‘Panic’

In India, despite government threats of a ban, transaction volumes are swelling and 8 million investors now hold 100 billion rupees ($1.4 billion) in crypto-investments, according to industry estimates. No official data is available.

“The money is multiplying rapidly every month and you don’t want to be sitting on the sidelines,” said Sumnesh Salodkar, a crypto-investor. “Even though people are panicking due to the potential ban, greed is driving these choices.”

User registrations and money inflows at local crypto-exchange Bitbns are up 30-fold from a year ago, said Gaurav Dahake, its chief executive. Unocoin, one of India’s oldest exchanges, added 20,000 users in January and February, despite worries of a ban.

A government panel in 2019 recommended jail of up to 10 years on people who mine, generate, hold, sell, transfer, dispose of, issue or deal in cryptocurrencies.

The official declined to say whether the new bill includes jail terms as well as fines, or offer further details but said the discussions were in their final stages.

In March 2020, India’s Supreme Court struck down a 2018 order by the central bank forbidding banks from dealing in cryptocurrencies, prompting investors to pile into the market. The court ordered the government to take a position and draft a law on the matter.

The Reserve Bank of India voiced its concern again last month, citing what it said were risks to financial stability from cryptocurrencies. At the same time, the central bank has been working on launching its own digital currency, a step the government’s bill will also encourage, said the official.

Despite the market euphoria, investors are aware that the boom could be in danger.

“If the ban is official we have to comply,” Naimish Sanghvi, who started betting on digital currencies in the last year, told Reuters, referring to existing concerns about a potential ban. “Until then, I’d rather stack up and run with the market than panic and sell.”

Seth Melamed, the Tokyo-based chief operating officer of cryptocurrency exchange Liquid, said legislation of the sort India is proposing won’t be an impediment to further gains for bitcoin.

“Because it’s decentralised, government bans or acceptance is somewhat irrelevant,” Melamed said. “Capital will find a way.”

Binance Holdings Ltd., the largest cryptocurrency exchange, is being investigated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission over concerns that it allowed Americans to place wagers that violated U.S. rules, according to people familiar with the matter.

Bitcoin’s surge past $50,000 has been a boon for Binance, as the exchange is raking in new users faster than ever. The crypto behemoth has been attracting more than 300,000 user registrations a day, exceeding its previous peak reached in 2017, Zhao told Bloomberg TV last month.

Binanance co-founder Changpeng Zhao said Friday that the company closely follows American rules and has strong controls to prevent its customers from laundering funds. Speaking during an event on the social media platform Clubhouse, he declined to comment on whether the CFTC is investigating Binance.

“We’ll continue to improve our compliance,” Zhao said. “We’ll also work very actively with regulators around the world to improve the compliance standards of the industry.”

Trading Strategy (source: Trading Central)

60929 is our pivot point.

Our preference: the downside prevails as long as 60929 is resistance.

Alternative scenario: above 60929, look for 62969 and 64183.

Comment: the RSI is below 50. The MACD is below its signal line and negative. The configuration is negative. Moreover, the price stands below its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 59915 and 60126).

Supports and resistances:

64183 **

62969 *

60929 **

60127

59300 last

56592

55384 **

Guideline for Trading Central strategy 

Trend chart reading guideline

1. First look at the time period in the upper left corner of the chart: ·30MIN and 1H chart shows the trading suggestions for intraday ·Daily chart shows the market trend analysis in next 2-3 days

2. The blue horizontal line on the chart marks the pivot: pivot indicates the reversal of the market. When the price is above the pivot, it indicates an upward trend, when the price is below the pivot , it indicates a downward trend. When the price breaks through the pivot, the trend is reversed.

3. The red and blue thin curves in the Candlestick chart chart are technical indicators: Red line is MA20+Bollinger bands, Blue line is MA50. under the Candlestick chart chart are also the technical indicators: Blue line is RSI, Red line is 9MA;

4. The green horizontal line is the resistance level for a price increase, and is also the profit target for long orders; the red horizontal line is the support level for a price decrease, and is also the profit target for short orders.

How to use TC strategy？

1.[Pivot] is the reversal line of the market trend. When the price up the pivot line which means in Bullish, you can open a long position or Buy. on the contrary, when the price under pivot line which means in bearish. You ‘d better make short positions or Sell. 

2. [our preference] is the main trading suggestion for your reference. You can exit your trading refer to this target or close positions before it.

3. [Alternative scenario] is the plan B for your reference. 

4. [Comment] is the technical analysis of market trends and technical support for trading strategies. 

5. [Supports and resistance] Supports are levels where the price tend to find support as it falls.

Resistances are levels where the price tend to find resistance as it rises. So, exit before the trend reverse.