Gold’s Downtrend Continues: Resistance Holds, Bears Remain in Control

Friday is "Gold goes outside day." The 100-Day EMA (1,939) served as resistance earlier in the session, and gold rebounded above yesterday's high of 1,935 to test it once more, achieving a daily high of 1,937. Gold retreated to below yesterday's low of 1,912 as resistance maintained. As of this writing, the day's low was 1,911.

Hits the Correction's Cheapest Price

Today's low marks the lowest price for the current correction, and a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement was also finished at 1,911. Gold was down 8.3% from its peak and record high of 2,082 reached seven weeks ago at today's low.

Price to the Downside Rejected by the 100-Day Line

The downtrend is undeniably in place as seen by today's resistance test of the 100-Day line. Additionally, gold is on course to complete a bearish inverted hammer candlestick pattern today as of the time of this writing, which might lead to price declines. Of course, a decline below today's low and a daily close below it are necessary for a bearish confirmation signal to appear.

Potential Support and Low nearby

In the meantime, if the retracement hasn't already been completed, gold may be on the verge of finding a support level. The 200-Day EMA, a more important long-term trend indicator, is just a touch below the day's low at 1,895. Given the bigger bullish pattern that has been developing in the precious metal, it should hold as support once more during the approach in late-February/early-March. Support should ideally be located above the 200-Day line for the bulls, as this would indicate relative strength compared to the line's previous test, which occurred earlier this year.

Is the Bull Still There?

A positive outlook would require gold to first close above the 3-Day high at 1,939 and the 100-Day EMA. It has a potential of a positive reversal if it can then maintain itself above the level and continue to show additional signs of strength. A daily closing above this week's high of 1,959 will thereafter confirm strength on a longer time frame and raise the probability that the correction is over, allowing gold to maintain its uptrend.