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Market News Gold trading reminder: the number of initial requests dropped to a 52-year low! The U.S. dollar soars and the price of gold hits the top
Gold trading reminder: the number of initial requests dropped to a 52-year low! The U.S. dollar soars and the price of gold hits the top
During the Asian session on November 25, spot gold rose slightly, trading around 1791. The gold price closed the cross star on Wednesday. The strong US economic data boosted the yield of the US dollar and U.S. Treasuries, putting gold prices under tremendous pressure. However, the safe-haven funds brought by the epidemic and high inflation supported gold prices to regain lost ground.
2021-11-25
11590
On Thursday (November 25) Asian session, spot gold rose slightly, trading around 1791. On Wednesday (November 24), the price of gold closed the doji, but it once fell to a new low since November 4. As the strong US economic data boosted the yield of the US dollar and US debt, the market’s concerns about the Fed’s earlier-than-expected interest rate hike intensified. Gold prices are under pressure from bulls, but the safe-haven funds brought about by the epidemic and high inflation support gold prices to regain lost ground.
On Thanksgiving Day in the United States today, the U.S. stock market is closed. The trading of precious metals under the Chicago Mercantile Exchange will end ahead of schedule at 02:00 on the 26th GMT+8. Investors need to pay attention.
[The dollar jumped, helped by the Fed’s hawkish views and strong consumer spending data]
The dollar rose across the board on Wednesday as investors bet that the Fed will tighten monetary policy faster than other central banks.
(Daily chart of the US dollar index)
Fed officials have contributed to this more hawkish view that if inflation does not ease, the Fed may act sooner to try to contain rising price pressures, while the European Central Bank is expected to maintain a more dovish attitude due to economic growth in Europe Lag.
The minutes of the Fed’s last policy meeting released on Wednesday showed that many policymakers said that if inflation remains high, they are open to speeding up the end of the bond purchase plan and speeding up the pace of raising interest rates.
The strengthening of the US dollar "reflects the wishful thinking of the ECB leadership and the Fed's more worried about inflation performance, so there may be policy differences," said Lou Brien, market strategist at DRW Trading.
San Francisco Fed Chairman Daley said on Wednesday that if inflation remains high and job growth remains strong, she is open to the Fed's accelerated pace of reducing asset purchases.
Data released on Wednesday showed that German business confidence deteriorated for the fifth consecutive month in November, which hit the euro.
[S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed higher]
The US stock market S&P 500 index and Nasdaq index closed higher on Wednesday, boosted by gains in Nvidia and other technology stocks.
(S&P 500 daily chart)
The S&P 500 index was nearly flat for most of the session and climbed before the close. The S&P 500 index consumer discretionary stocks rose 0.2% after data showed that US consumer spending increased more than expected in October.
The Fed’s favorite inflation indicator, the core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index, also accelerated to 5% in October, setting a 31-year high with the CPI.
The minutes of the Fed's November policy meeting show that many policymakers said that if inflation remains high, they are open to speeding up the end of the bond purchase plan and speeding up the pace of raising interest rates.
Other data showed that the number of initial jobless claims dropped last week, and the gross domestic product (GDP) was revised upwards in the third quarter. A survey by the University of Michigan showed that consumer confidence improved in November.
[More Fed policymakers are open to speeding up debt reduction and raising interest rates early]
The minutes of the Fed's November policy meeting show that more policymakers have hinted that if inflation remains high, they are open to speeding up the end of the bond purchase plan and speeding up the pace of raising interest rates.
The minutes of the meeting released on Wednesday showed that the Fed’s anxiety about rising inflation is deepening. Many officials attending the November 2-3 policy meeting also hinted that the pressure from high prices may be more lasting.
The persistence and expansion of price pressure surprised both the White House and the Federal Reserve and prompted them to respond. U.S. President Biden and Fed Chairman Powell emphasized earlier this week that they will take measures to solve the problem of rising prices of daily necessities such as food, gasoline and rent.
"Many participants pointed out that if the inflation rate continues to be higher than the committee's target level, then the committee should be prepared to adjust the pace of asset purchases and raise the target range of the federal funds rate in advance," the Federal Reserve said in the minutes of the meeting.
With the release of more strong economic data in the past three weeks, all signs indicate that the Fed will clearly raise the issue of speeding up the reduction of debt purchases at its next meeting on December 14-15.
[San Francisco Fed Chairman Daley said he is open to speeding up the pace of reducing debt purchases]
San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Daly said on Wednesday that if inflation remains high and job growth remains strong, she is open to accelerating the Fed's pace of reducing asset purchases.
"If things continue to develop as they are now, then I fully support speeding up the pace of reducing debt purchases," Daly said in an interview with Yahoo Finance published on Wednesday.
Daly said that she is "open" to this idea, but hopes to see more economic reports on inflation and employment, and discuss this approach with colleagues at the Federal Reserve before making a decision.
On the issue of raising interest rates, Daley said that she hopes to look at the economic performance in the first and second quarters of next year before making a decision. She expects the Fed to raise interest rates by the end of 2022, but she pointed out that even after raising interest rates twice, the Fed’s policy will still be loose.
"I don't want to be bound by a single number," Daley said when asked if he insisted on raising interest rates once next year. "If interest rates are raised once or twice in the second half of next year, I won't be surprised at all. "
[U.S. initial jobless claims fell to the lowest in 52 years last week]
The number of initial jobless claims in the United States fell to the lowest in 52 years last week, which shows that economic activity is accelerating as a year marked by shortages, high inflation and a relentless epidemic draws to a close.
In the week ending November 20, initial claims for unemployment benefits fell by 71,000 to 199,000 after seasonal adjustment, the lowest since mid-November 1969.
The interviewing economists predict that the initial number of applicants is 260,000. The number of applicants is currently lower than the average level of approximately 220,000 before the pandemic.
The number of initial jobless claims has fallen from a record high of 6.149 million in early April 2020, and is currently in the range of a healthy labor market, even though the severe labor shortage caused by the epidemic has hindered faster employment growth.
[U.S. consumer confidence index fell to a 10-year low in November]
As price increases continue to erode Americans’ spending power, the US Consumer Confidence Index fell to a 10-year low in November from the previous month.
Data released on Wednesday showed that the final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index fell from 71.7 in October to 67.4, slightly higher than the initial value of 66.8 and the median expected value of economists surveyed.
Richard Curtin, who is in charge of the investigation, said in a statement that "although the shortage of supply caused by the epidemic is the primary cause, the foundation of inflation has become more stable and has spread more widely throughout the economy."
Respondents said that they expect the inflation rate to rise by 3% in the next 5-10 years, which is slightly higher than the initial value. The expected inflation rate for the next year is 4.9%, the highest since 2008.
As the labor market continues to improve, consumer prices are rising at the fastest rate in decades. Personal spending, which slowed sharply in the third quarter, will accelerate again in the last three months of this year, but some people worry that the recent decline in consumer confidence may herald weaker demand in the future.
An indicator of household durable goods purchases fell to the second lowest level in history since the release of the data in 1978.
The indicator for measuring current conditions fell to 73.6, and the indicator for future expectations fell to 63.5.
[The President of Germany emphasizes that the crisis of the new crown epidemic is far from over and calls on the public to pay attention to it]
On November 24, local time, German President Steinmeier said that the new crown epidemic is far from over, and asked the whole society to face up to the harm of the epidemic.
Steinmeier said: "In the fall of 2021, we should realize that we are still a long way from overcoming this crisis."
The current situation of the epidemic in Germany continues to deteriorate, and the cumulative death toll is about to reach 100,000. Steinmeier said that this is an “incredible number”. He asked the whole society to face the harm of the epidemic, “As a society as a whole, We cannot and should not turn a blind eye to this."
Overall, the US data on Wednesday is generally optimistic, but high inflation does not cause Fed officials and consumers to worry about it. The Fed may raise interest rates ahead of schedule, which will continue to support the strength of the US dollar and the downward pressure on gold prices. It is expected that gold prices will continue in the short term. Weak operation.
(Spot gold daily chart)
GMT+8 8:41, spot gold was quoted at US$1791.83 per ounce.
On Thanksgiving Day in the United States today, the U.S. stock market is closed. The trading of precious metals under the Chicago Mercantile Exchange will end ahead of schedule at 02:00 on the 26th GMT+8. Investors need to pay attention.
Fundamentals are bad
[The dollar jumped, helped by the Fed’s hawkish views and strong consumer spending data]
The dollar rose across the board on Wednesday as investors bet that the Fed will tighten monetary policy faster than other central banks.
(Daily chart of the US dollar index)
Fed officials have contributed to this more hawkish view that if inflation does not ease, the Fed may act sooner to try to contain rising price pressures, while the European Central Bank is expected to maintain a more dovish attitude due to economic growth in Europe Lag.
The minutes of the Fed’s last policy meeting released on Wednesday showed that many policymakers said that if inflation remains high, they are open to speeding up the end of the bond purchase plan and speeding up the pace of raising interest rates.
The strengthening of the US dollar "reflects the wishful thinking of the ECB leadership and the Fed's more worried about inflation performance, so there may be policy differences," said Lou Brien, market strategist at DRW Trading.
San Francisco Fed Chairman Daley said on Wednesday that if inflation remains high and job growth remains strong, she is open to the Fed's accelerated pace of reducing asset purchases.
Data released on Wednesday showed that German business confidence deteriorated for the fifth consecutive month in November, which hit the euro.
[S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed higher]
The US stock market S&P 500 index and Nasdaq index closed higher on Wednesday, boosted by gains in Nvidia and other technology stocks.
(S&P 500 daily chart)
The S&P 500 index was nearly flat for most of the session and climbed before the close. The S&P 500 index consumer discretionary stocks rose 0.2% after data showed that US consumer spending increased more than expected in October.
The Fed’s favorite inflation indicator, the core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index, also accelerated to 5% in October, setting a 31-year high with the CPI.
The minutes of the Fed's November policy meeting show that many policymakers said that if inflation remains high, they are open to speeding up the end of the bond purchase plan and speeding up the pace of raising interest rates.
Other data showed that the number of initial jobless claims dropped last week, and the gross domestic product (GDP) was revised upwards in the third quarter. A survey by the University of Michigan showed that consumer confidence improved in November.
[More Fed policymakers are open to speeding up debt reduction and raising interest rates early]
The minutes of the Fed's November policy meeting show that more policymakers have hinted that if inflation remains high, they are open to speeding up the end of the bond purchase plan and speeding up the pace of raising interest rates.
The minutes of the meeting released on Wednesday showed that the Fed’s anxiety about rising inflation is deepening. Many officials attending the November 2-3 policy meeting also hinted that the pressure from high prices may be more lasting.
The persistence and expansion of price pressure surprised both the White House and the Federal Reserve and prompted them to respond. U.S. President Biden and Fed Chairman Powell emphasized earlier this week that they will take measures to solve the problem of rising prices of daily necessities such as food, gasoline and rent.
"Many participants pointed out that if the inflation rate continues to be higher than the committee's target level, then the committee should be prepared to adjust the pace of asset purchases and raise the target range of the federal funds rate in advance," the Federal Reserve said in the minutes of the meeting.
With the release of more strong economic data in the past three weeks, all signs indicate that the Fed will clearly raise the issue of speeding up the reduction of debt purchases at its next meeting on December 14-15.
[San Francisco Fed Chairman Daley said he is open to speeding up the pace of reducing debt purchases]
San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Daly said on Wednesday that if inflation remains high and job growth remains strong, she is open to accelerating the Fed's pace of reducing asset purchases.
"If things continue to develop as they are now, then I fully support speeding up the pace of reducing debt purchases," Daly said in an interview with Yahoo Finance published on Wednesday.
Daly said that she is "open" to this idea, but hopes to see more economic reports on inflation and employment, and discuss this approach with colleagues at the Federal Reserve before making a decision.
On the issue of raising interest rates, Daley said that she hopes to look at the economic performance in the first and second quarters of next year before making a decision. She expects the Fed to raise interest rates by the end of 2022, but she pointed out that even after raising interest rates twice, the Fed’s policy will still be loose.
"I don't want to be bound by a single number," Daley said when asked if he insisted on raising interest rates once next year. "If interest rates are raised once or twice in the second half of next year, I won't be surprised at all. "
[U.S. initial jobless claims fell to the lowest in 52 years last week]
The number of initial jobless claims in the United States fell to the lowest in 52 years last week, which shows that economic activity is accelerating as a year marked by shortages, high inflation and a relentless epidemic draws to a close.
In the week ending November 20, initial claims for unemployment benefits fell by 71,000 to 199,000 after seasonal adjustment, the lowest since mid-November 1969.
The interviewing economists predict that the initial number of applicants is 260,000. The number of applicants is currently lower than the average level of approximately 220,000 before the pandemic.
The number of initial jobless claims has fallen from a record high of 6.149 million in early April 2020, and is currently in the range of a healthy labor market, even though the severe labor shortage caused by the epidemic has hindered faster employment growth.
Fundamentals are bullish
[U.S. consumer confidence index fell to a 10-year low in November]
As price increases continue to erode Americans’ spending power, the US Consumer Confidence Index fell to a 10-year low in November from the previous month.
Data released on Wednesday showed that the final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index fell from 71.7 in October to 67.4, slightly higher than the initial value of 66.8 and the median expected value of economists surveyed.
Richard Curtin, who is in charge of the investigation, said in a statement that "although the shortage of supply caused by the epidemic is the primary cause, the foundation of inflation has become more stable and has spread more widely throughout the economy."
Respondents said that they expect the inflation rate to rise by 3% in the next 5-10 years, which is slightly higher than the initial value. The expected inflation rate for the next year is 4.9%, the highest since 2008.
As the labor market continues to improve, consumer prices are rising at the fastest rate in decades. Personal spending, which slowed sharply in the third quarter, will accelerate again in the last three months of this year, but some people worry that the recent decline in consumer confidence may herald weaker demand in the future.
An indicator of household durable goods purchases fell to the second lowest level in history since the release of the data in 1978.
The indicator for measuring current conditions fell to 73.6, and the indicator for future expectations fell to 63.5.
[The President of Germany emphasizes that the crisis of the new crown epidemic is far from over and calls on the public to pay attention to it]
On November 24, local time, German President Steinmeier said that the new crown epidemic is far from over, and asked the whole society to face up to the harm of the epidemic.
Steinmeier said: "In the fall of 2021, we should realize that we are still a long way from overcoming this crisis."
The current situation of the epidemic in Germany continues to deteriorate, and the cumulative death toll is about to reach 100,000. Steinmeier said that this is an “incredible number”. He asked the whole society to face the harm of the epidemic, “As a society as a whole, We cannot and should not turn a blind eye to this."
Overall, the US data on Wednesday is generally optimistic, but high inflation does not cause Fed officials and consumers to worry about it. The Fed may raise interest rates ahead of schedule, which will continue to support the strength of the US dollar and the downward pressure on gold prices. It is expected that gold prices will continue in the short term. Weak operation.
(Spot gold daily chart)
GMT+8 8:41, spot gold was quoted at US$1791.83 per ounce.
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