Market News Gold trading reminder: the impact of inflation continues to ferment, gold prices may challenge 1900
Gold trading reminder: the impact of inflation continues to ferment, gold prices may challenge 1900
In the Asian session on November 12, spot gold held steady at around 1861. Gold prices ushered in six consecutive positives on Thursday, and inflation concerns continued to boost the attractiveness of gold, even though the US dollar index continued to rise. Citi strategists expect gold prices may challenge the 1900 mark.
2021-11-12
9185
On Friday (November 12) Asian time, spot gold held steady at around 1861. On Thursday (November 11), the price of gold welcomes six consecutive positives. The previous strong US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data pushed investors to rush to buy gold, which is regarded as a hedge against inflation. The decline in stock market sentiment also supported the price of gold. However, the strengthening of the US dollar dragged down the rise in gold prices.
The main focus of the day is the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index and job vacancy data. In addition, the speech of New York Fed President Williams also needs attention.
[Citi: Gold price is expected to challenge US$1,900 in the short term]
A team of Citi strategists headed by Aakash Doshi issued a report on Wednesday that if the price of gold stays at around US$1,850 per ounce this week, new investors may further influx, and US$1,900 is expected to become the next target price.
Even with inflationary factors providing solid support for gold, Doshi also said that the strengthening of the U.S. dollar coupled with the Fed's aggressive pricing of short-term interest rates may cause resistance to this wave of gold prices.
The United States announced on Wednesday that the annual CPI rate in October reached a new high for more than 30 years, and the monthly growth rate was also much higher than market expectations, indicating that inflation is still high.
Citigroup raised its gold target price for 0 to 3 months by 11% to US$1,900 per ounce, and raised its Q4 gold price forecast from US$1,700 per ounce to US$1,800.
[The Dow fell for three consecutive days, the stock market sentiment faded]
The US stock market S&P 500 index closed slightly higher on Thursday, the Dow fell for three consecutive times, and the stock market sentiment no longer . The day before, the higher-than-expected inflation report hit investor sentiment, bringing the trend of record closing highs to a halt.
(Dow daily chart)
Disney fell after announcing disappointing results, dragging down the Dow.
The bond market is closed, and in the absence of economic data and the end of the third quarter financial reporting season, there is a lack of catalysts to promote the market.
Peter Tuz, President of Chase Investment Counsel, said: "It is really difficult to judge the trend on a day like today, because basically half of the market is closed, and specific company and industry events are driving today's trend."
Tuz added: "Tomorrow's transaction volume will be much more than today, so we have to wait and see."
[November 11 gold ETF holdings: SPDR gold holdings increased by 0.58 tons]
According to the data of gold ETFs on November 12, the world's largest gold ETF-SPDR Gold Trust held 975.41 tons of gold as of November 11, an increase of 0.58 tons from the previous trading day.
[The U.S. dollar hits its highest in the past 16 months, and high inflation readings in the US push the Fed to raise interest rates early to bet]
The U.S. dollar hit its highest in nearly 16 months against the euro and other currencies on Thursday, after the United States announced its highest inflation reading in 30 years, triggering bets that the Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policy faster than expected.
Data released on Wednesday showed that the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose the most year-on-year in October since 1990. This intensified speculation that the Fed will raise interest rates earlier than expected. Traders questioned the Fed’s current high inflation. The "temporary" position.
The U.S. dollar index is set to rise for the second consecutive trading day, rising to 95.19, the highest since July 22, 2020.
Vassili Serebriakov, a foreign exchange strategist at UBS, said that trading is still affected by the CPI. The path of least resistance in the short term seems to be a higher US dollar. Strong inflation weakens the temporary theory, which means that the Fed may need to tighten monetary policy sooner.
Joseph Trevisani, a senior analyst at FXstreet.com, a website that tracks financial markets, said that inflation-related bets appeared for the second day in a row, and the U.S. bond market was closed for Memorial Day, which could lead to reduced trading and amplify price volatility.
He said that in general, when the bond market is closed, liquidity will decrease, and the trend tends to be enlarged, because the liquidity that absorbs any particular trend will be reduced.
In general, inflation concerns still support the continued rise of gold prices, while the cooling of market risk sentiment has also strengthened the dollar. In the case that the inflation crisis is temporarily difficult to eliminate, the gold price outlook will continue to be strong.
(Spot gold daily chart)
GMT+8 8:32, spot gold was quoted at US$1,860.10 per ounce.
The main focus of the day is the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index and job vacancy data. In addition, the speech of New York Fed President Williams also needs attention.
Fundamentals are bullish
[Citi: Gold price is expected to challenge US$1,900 in the short term]
A team of Citi strategists headed by Aakash Doshi issued a report on Wednesday that if the price of gold stays at around US$1,850 per ounce this week, new investors may further influx, and US$1,900 is expected to become the next target price.
Even with inflationary factors providing solid support for gold, Doshi also said that the strengthening of the U.S. dollar coupled with the Fed's aggressive pricing of short-term interest rates may cause resistance to this wave of gold prices.
The United States announced on Wednesday that the annual CPI rate in October reached a new high for more than 30 years, and the monthly growth rate was also much higher than market expectations, indicating that inflation is still high.
Citigroup raised its gold target price for 0 to 3 months by 11% to US$1,900 per ounce, and raised its Q4 gold price forecast from US$1,700 per ounce to US$1,800.
[The Dow fell for three consecutive days, the stock market sentiment faded]
The US stock market S&P 500 index closed slightly higher on Thursday, the Dow fell for three consecutive times, and the stock market sentiment no longer . The day before, the higher-than-expected inflation report hit investor sentiment, bringing the trend of record closing highs to a halt.
(Dow daily chart)
Disney fell after announcing disappointing results, dragging down the Dow.
The bond market is closed, and in the absence of economic data and the end of the third quarter financial reporting season, there is a lack of catalysts to promote the market.
Peter Tuz, President of Chase Investment Counsel, said: "It is really difficult to judge the trend on a day like today, because basically half of the market is closed, and specific company and industry events are driving today's trend."
Tuz added: "Tomorrow's transaction volume will be much more than today, so we have to wait and see."
[November 11 gold ETF holdings: SPDR gold holdings increased by 0.58 tons]
According to the data of gold ETFs on November 12, the world's largest gold ETF-SPDR Gold Trust held 975.41 tons of gold as of November 11, an increase of 0.58 tons from the previous trading day.
Fundamentals are bad
[The U.S. dollar hits its highest in the past 16 months, and high inflation readings in the US push the Fed to raise interest rates early to bet]
The U.S. dollar hit its highest in nearly 16 months against the euro and other currencies on Thursday, after the United States announced its highest inflation reading in 30 years, triggering bets that the Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policy faster than expected.
Data released on Wednesday showed that the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose the most year-on-year in October since 1990. This intensified speculation that the Fed will raise interest rates earlier than expected. Traders questioned the Fed’s current high inflation. The "temporary" position.
The U.S. dollar index is set to rise for the second consecutive trading day, rising to 95.19, the highest since July 22, 2020.
Vassili Serebriakov, a foreign exchange strategist at UBS, said that trading is still affected by the CPI. The path of least resistance in the short term seems to be a higher US dollar. Strong inflation weakens the temporary theory, which means that the Fed may need to tighten monetary policy sooner.
Joseph Trevisani, a senior analyst at FXstreet.com, a website that tracks financial markets, said that inflation-related bets appeared for the second day in a row, and the U.S. bond market was closed for Memorial Day, which could lead to reduced trading and amplify price volatility.
He said that in general, when the bond market is closed, liquidity will decrease, and the trend tends to be enlarged, because the liquidity that absorbs any particular trend will be reduced.
In general, inflation concerns still support the continued rise of gold prices, while the cooling of market risk sentiment has also strengthened the dollar. In the case that the inflation crisis is temporarily difficult to eliminate, the gold price outlook will continue to be strong.
(Spot gold daily chart)
GMT+8 8:32, spot gold was quoted at US$1,860.10 per ounce.
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