Market News Gold trading reminder: Inflation expectations hit a record high! Continue to pay attention to the resistance of 1834 after "Three Lianyang"
Gold trading reminder: Inflation expectations hit a record high! Continue to pay attention to the resistance of 1834 after "Three Lianyang"
In the Asian session on November 9, spot gold held steady at around 1824. On Monday, the price of gold realized three consecutive rises and rose to a two-month high, mainly supported by the fall of the US dollar and high inflation expectations. The above needs to pay attention to the 1834 line of resistance.
2021-11-09
9290
On Tuesday (November 9) Asian time, spot gold held steady at around 1824. On Monday (November 8), the price of gold rose for three consecutive months and rose to a two-month high, mainly supported by a fall in the US dollar and high inflation expectations, but the strength of US stocks limited the rise in gold prices. Fed officials’ debate on interest rate policy also has a certain impact on gold prices.
In the day, we will focus on the October PPI data of the United States and the speeches of Fed officials.
[The U.S. dollar has fallen from a 15-month high, the market focuses on the Fed’s speech and inflation data]
The dollar fell on Monday and hit a 15-month high after the release of strong employment data in the United States last Friday. Investors digested the report , looked ahead to inflation data, and followed the comments of Fed officials to find clues about interest rate policy.
(Daily chart of the US dollar index)
The Fed insisted on the view that the current high inflation expectations will be temporary last Wednesday, and said that it will begin to reduce the large-scale bond purchase program this month, but will not raise interest rates until more employment growth occurs.
Last Friday, data released by the United States showed that due to the decline in resistance caused by the surge of new crown virus infections in the summer, employment growth in October exceeded expectations, indicating that economic activity resumed its momentum at the beginning of the fourth quarter.
Fed officials turned their focus to interest rate policy on Monday. Vice Chairman Clarida said that as employment returns to pre-epidemic levels and inflation rises above comfortable levels, the US economy may reach the Fed's interest rate hike threshold next year.
St. Louis Federal Reserve Chairman Brad reiterated in another speech that the Fed needs to raise interest rates twice next year.
The next test of the Fed’s wait-and-see attitude towards inflation will be the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data scheduled to be released on Wednesday.
According to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), as of the week of November 2, speculators reduced their net long US dollar positions for the fourth consecutive week.
[Clarida: The U.S. economy will reach the Fed rate hike threshold by the end of next year]
A senior Federal Reserve official said on Monday that as employment returns to pre-epidemic levels and inflation rises above comfortable levels, the US economy may reach the Fed's interest rate hike threshold next year.
Fed Vice Chairman Clarida said that although the Fed is “some distance away from considering raising interest rates”, if his current expectations for the economy prove to be correct, the economy “will meet the target range for raising the federal funds rate by the end of 2022. Necessary conditions".
Clarida said in a speech prepared for the Brookings Institution that by then, an interest rate path similar to the Fed officials’ forecast in September will be the same as the Fed’s new framework for achieving 2% inflation and “full employment”. Exactly the same".
The "dot plot" of interest rates shows that the Fed officials' interest rate expectations are moving towards the direction of raising interest rates next year, but the number of policymakers who are expected to raise interest rates for the first time in 2022 is equal to the number of policymakers who are expected to start raising interest rates in 2023; most of the decisions are made. The author stated that interest rates will be steadily increased in 2023 and 2024.
Clarida's remarks come as the Fed is turning its attention to a conflict that may occur, that is, on the one hand, it wants to maximize employment, on the other hand, it is worried that inflation is already too high.
Clarida said that so far, inflation has “far exceeded the level of'moderately' higher than the current long-term inflation target of 2%.” If this happens again next year, I would not consider this to be a policy success. He said that after excluding the volatile food and energy costs, a Fed's preferred inflation indicator will still be higher than the target in a short period of time, but the pace should slow down.
He said that as the economy continues to expand, employment growth is expected to boost the labor participation rate, and the unemployment rate will reach 3.8% by the end of next year, which will "eliminate the 4.2 million job gap compared to the months before the epidemic."
[Chicago Fed Chairman Evans reiterated that inflation is "temporary", but said there are upside risks]
Chicago Fed Chairman Evans reiterated his view on Monday that the current surge in inflation is largely "temporary" and inflation will subside as supply pressures are resolved, but it sounds like he is concerned about this. This statement is not as confident as before.
Evans said in a speech, "I originally expected to see more progress now," he added, adding that there are signs that inflationary pressures may be accumulating more broadly, including rising rents. "These developments deserve close attention, and the upside risks to my inflation expectations are greater than I expected last summer," he said.
As one of the Fed’s most dovish policymakers, Evans has expressed concern about rising inflation. This is worth noting, but considering that the price increase indicator has been well above the Fed’s 2% target for several months, this Probably not surprising.
However, Evans also pointed out that inflation expectations based on surveys and financial market pricing also indicate that the current excessive inflation is temporary. He said that the unemployment rate is declining rapidly, and a stronger labor market may attract some of the millions of workers who retire or otherwise withdraw from the labor market during the epidemic to return.
[New York Fed survey: US consumer inflation expectations hit a record high in October]
According to the latest survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, after months of soaring prices, US consumer inflation expectations have risen to a record high.
According to the monthly consumer expectations survey released on Monday, households’ expectations for inflation in the next year rose to 5.7% in October from 5.3% in the previous month. The median inflation expectations for the next three years have remained stable at 4.2%. Both figures are the highest since the survey began in 2013.
These data highlight one of the risk factors that are expected to prompt Fed officials to turn to tightening monetary policy.
The Fed attributed the increase in inflation this year to supply chain bottlenecks and short-term factors related to the reopening of the economy after the epidemic. However, the facts have proved that these forces to promote price increases are greater than expected and longer lasting. The market is worried that households may also have the same expectations, which may make the inflation rate higher than the target of 2%.
The Fed’s preferred inflation indicator reached 4.4% in September, the highest level since 1991. The Department of Labor will announce the October CPI on Wednesday, which is expected to increase by 5.9% year-on-year.
A survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York shows that Americans expect the price of goods such as rent and food to rise faster in the coming year. The increase in food and natural gas is expected to be higher than 9%, and the increase in rent is expected to be 10.1%, a record high.
Americans' optimism about the financial situation of their families in the coming year has also declined slightly. The average probability of failing to reach the minimum debt service ratio in the next three months rose by 1.3 percentage points to 11.2%, the highest level since May 2020.
[St. Louis Federal Reserve Chairman Brad expects the Fed to raise interest rates twice next year]
St. Louis Fed Chairman Brad said on Monday that he expects the Fed to raise interest rates twice in 2022 after ending its bond purchases in the middle of next year, but he said that if necessary, the Fed can speed up the reduction schedule, ending in the first quarter. action.
In an interview with Fox Business Channel, Brad said, "If inflation is longer than what we are talking about now, then I think it may have to act earlier to control inflation." When asked whether the Fed will increase it next year. After three to four breaks, Brad said, "This is not my current baseline forecast."
He said that the Fed has “taken a lot of measures to push policy toward a more hawkish direction.” The Fed announced its plan to curtail asset purchases last week. The start time is advanced and the end time is expected to be earlier than just six months ago. Expectations.
Fearing that the pace and magnitude of the fall in inflation may not be as fast as the expectations of many of his colleagues, Brad has been one of the policymakers most firmly advocating the early end of easing policies.
He said that the US economy may grow at a rate of more than 4% in 2022, pushing the unemployment rate to below 4% in the first quarter . He said that the global supply chain disruption, which is regarded as the main cause of current high inflation, may continue throughout the next year.
He said that the US labor market is already one of the hottest markets after World War II. He estimated that the 3 million people who retire during the epidemic are unlikely to return to the labor market, which will result in a tight labor supply.
"We will see downward pressure on the unemployment rate, we will continue to see a hot job market, and salaries will rise," he said. "Inflation is now very high... We definitely want to see inflation fall back to a level closer to the target. ."
[S&P and Nasdaq record highs for the eighth consecutive day]
The US Wall Street stock market closed slightly higher on Monday and rose in early trading. Investors were happy that the US infrastructure spending bill was passed, but the gains narrowed in late trading, dragged down by Tesla's decline.
The S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq Index set a record closing high for the eighth consecutive day, and the Dow Jones Industrial Index set a record closing high for the second consecutive day.
(Dow daily chart)
Tesla brought the biggest drag on the S&P 500 index, down 4.9%. CEO Musk asked fans on Twitter in a poll on Saturday whether he should sell 10% of Tesla shares. More than 3.5 million people voted, 57.9% of which voted in favor.
Economically sensitive cyclical stocks and chip stocks led the gains, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index setting a record closing high.
The industry and materials sectors were boosted, and the US Congress passed the $1 trillion infrastructure spending bill proposed by President Biden on Saturday.
(Spot gold daily chart)
In general, the Fed's reduction of QE and continuous record highs in the stock market did not affect the buying interest of gold. Instead, the market's concerns about inflation helped the price of gold hit a two-month high. In the short-term, attention should be paid to whether the price of gold can break through the first-line resistance of 1834.
GMT+8 8:32, spot gold was quoted at US$1824.34 per ounce.
In the day, we will focus on the October PPI data of the United States and the speeches of Fed officials.
Fundamentals are bullish
[The U.S. dollar has fallen from a 15-month high, the market focuses on the Fed’s speech and inflation data]
The dollar fell on Monday and hit a 15-month high after the release of strong employment data in the United States last Friday. Investors digested the report , looked ahead to inflation data, and followed the comments of Fed officials to find clues about interest rate policy.
(Daily chart of the US dollar index)
The Fed insisted on the view that the current high inflation expectations will be temporary last Wednesday, and said that it will begin to reduce the large-scale bond purchase program this month, but will not raise interest rates until more employment growth occurs.
Last Friday, data released by the United States showed that due to the decline in resistance caused by the surge of new crown virus infections in the summer, employment growth in October exceeded expectations, indicating that economic activity resumed its momentum at the beginning of the fourth quarter.
Fed officials turned their focus to interest rate policy on Monday. Vice Chairman Clarida said that as employment returns to pre-epidemic levels and inflation rises above comfortable levels, the US economy may reach the Fed's interest rate hike threshold next year.
St. Louis Federal Reserve Chairman Brad reiterated in another speech that the Fed needs to raise interest rates twice next year.
The next test of the Fed’s wait-and-see attitude towards inflation will be the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data scheduled to be released on Wednesday.
According to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), as of the week of November 2, speculators reduced their net long US dollar positions for the fourth consecutive week.
[Clarida: The U.S. economy will reach the Fed rate hike threshold by the end of next year]
A senior Federal Reserve official said on Monday that as employment returns to pre-epidemic levels and inflation rises above comfortable levels, the US economy may reach the Fed's interest rate hike threshold next year.
Fed Vice Chairman Clarida said that although the Fed is “some distance away from considering raising interest rates”, if his current expectations for the economy prove to be correct, the economy “will meet the target range for raising the federal funds rate by the end of 2022. Necessary conditions".
Clarida said in a speech prepared for the Brookings Institution that by then, an interest rate path similar to the Fed officials’ forecast in September will be the same as the Fed’s new framework for achieving 2% inflation and “full employment”. Exactly the same".
The "dot plot" of interest rates shows that the Fed officials' interest rate expectations are moving towards the direction of raising interest rates next year, but the number of policymakers who are expected to raise interest rates for the first time in 2022 is equal to the number of policymakers who are expected to start raising interest rates in 2023; most of the decisions are made. The author stated that interest rates will be steadily increased in 2023 and 2024.
Clarida's remarks come as the Fed is turning its attention to a conflict that may occur, that is, on the one hand, it wants to maximize employment, on the other hand, it is worried that inflation is already too high.
Clarida said that so far, inflation has “far exceeded the level of'moderately' higher than the current long-term inflation target of 2%.” If this happens again next year, I would not consider this to be a policy success. He said that after excluding the volatile food and energy costs, a Fed's preferred inflation indicator will still be higher than the target in a short period of time, but the pace should slow down.
He said that as the economy continues to expand, employment growth is expected to boost the labor participation rate, and the unemployment rate will reach 3.8% by the end of next year, which will "eliminate the 4.2 million job gap compared to the months before the epidemic."
[Chicago Fed Chairman Evans reiterated that inflation is "temporary", but said there are upside risks]
Chicago Fed Chairman Evans reiterated his view on Monday that the current surge in inflation is largely "temporary" and inflation will subside as supply pressures are resolved, but it sounds like he is concerned about this. This statement is not as confident as before.
Evans said in a speech, "I originally expected to see more progress now," he added, adding that there are signs that inflationary pressures may be accumulating more broadly, including rising rents. "These developments deserve close attention, and the upside risks to my inflation expectations are greater than I expected last summer," he said.
As one of the Fed’s most dovish policymakers, Evans has expressed concern about rising inflation. This is worth noting, but considering that the price increase indicator has been well above the Fed’s 2% target for several months, this Probably not surprising.
However, Evans also pointed out that inflation expectations based on surveys and financial market pricing also indicate that the current excessive inflation is temporary. He said that the unemployment rate is declining rapidly, and a stronger labor market may attract some of the millions of workers who retire or otherwise withdraw from the labor market during the epidemic to return.
[New York Fed survey: US consumer inflation expectations hit a record high in October]
According to the latest survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, after months of soaring prices, US consumer inflation expectations have risen to a record high.
According to the monthly consumer expectations survey released on Monday, households’ expectations for inflation in the next year rose to 5.7% in October from 5.3% in the previous month. The median inflation expectations for the next three years have remained stable at 4.2%. Both figures are the highest since the survey began in 2013.
These data highlight one of the risk factors that are expected to prompt Fed officials to turn to tightening monetary policy.
The Fed attributed the increase in inflation this year to supply chain bottlenecks and short-term factors related to the reopening of the economy after the epidemic. However, the facts have proved that these forces to promote price increases are greater than expected and longer lasting. The market is worried that households may also have the same expectations, which may make the inflation rate higher than the target of 2%.
The Fed’s preferred inflation indicator reached 4.4% in September, the highest level since 1991. The Department of Labor will announce the October CPI on Wednesday, which is expected to increase by 5.9% year-on-year.
A survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York shows that Americans expect the price of goods such as rent and food to rise faster in the coming year. The increase in food and natural gas is expected to be higher than 9%, and the increase in rent is expected to be 10.1%, a record high.
Americans' optimism about the financial situation of their families in the coming year has also declined slightly. The average probability of failing to reach the minimum debt service ratio in the next three months rose by 1.3 percentage points to 11.2%, the highest level since May 2020.
Fundamentals are bad
[St. Louis Federal Reserve Chairman Brad expects the Fed to raise interest rates twice next year]
St. Louis Fed Chairman Brad said on Monday that he expects the Fed to raise interest rates twice in 2022 after ending its bond purchases in the middle of next year, but he said that if necessary, the Fed can speed up the reduction schedule, ending in the first quarter. action.
In an interview with Fox Business Channel, Brad said, "If inflation is longer than what we are talking about now, then I think it may have to act earlier to control inflation." When asked whether the Fed will increase it next year. After three to four breaks, Brad said, "This is not my current baseline forecast."
He said that the Fed has “taken a lot of measures to push policy toward a more hawkish direction.” The Fed announced its plan to curtail asset purchases last week. The start time is advanced and the end time is expected to be earlier than just six months ago. Expectations.
Fearing that the pace and magnitude of the fall in inflation may not be as fast as the expectations of many of his colleagues, Brad has been one of the policymakers most firmly advocating the early end of easing policies.
He said that the US economy may grow at a rate of more than 4% in 2022, pushing the unemployment rate to below 4% in the first quarter . He said that the global supply chain disruption, which is regarded as the main cause of current high inflation, may continue throughout the next year.
He said that the US labor market is already one of the hottest markets after World War II. He estimated that the 3 million people who retire during the epidemic are unlikely to return to the labor market, which will result in a tight labor supply.
"We will see downward pressure on the unemployment rate, we will continue to see a hot job market, and salaries will rise," he said. "Inflation is now very high... We definitely want to see inflation fall back to a level closer to the target. ."
[S&P and Nasdaq record highs for the eighth consecutive day]
The US Wall Street stock market closed slightly higher on Monday and rose in early trading. Investors were happy that the US infrastructure spending bill was passed, but the gains narrowed in late trading, dragged down by Tesla's decline.
The S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq Index set a record closing high for the eighth consecutive day, and the Dow Jones Industrial Index set a record closing high for the second consecutive day.
(Dow daily chart)
Tesla brought the biggest drag on the S&P 500 index, down 4.9%. CEO Musk asked fans on Twitter in a poll on Saturday whether he should sell 10% of Tesla shares. More than 3.5 million people voted, 57.9% of which voted in favor.
Economically sensitive cyclical stocks and chip stocks led the gains, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index setting a record closing high.
The industry and materials sectors were boosted, and the US Congress passed the $1 trillion infrastructure spending bill proposed by President Biden on Saturday.
(Spot gold daily chart)
In general, the Fed's reduction of QE and continuous record highs in the stock market did not affect the buying interest of gold. Instead, the market's concerns about inflation helped the price of gold hit a two-month high. In the short-term, attention should be paid to whether the price of gold can break through the first-line resistance of 1834.
GMT+8 8:32, spot gold was quoted at US$1824.34 per ounce.
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