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Market News Gold trading reminder: Gold prices stand at the 200-day moving average, pay attention to the US consumer confidence index in the day
Gold trading reminder: Gold prices stand at the 200-day moving average, pay attention to the US consumer confidence index in the day
In the Asian session on August 31, spot gold held steady at around 1811. On Monday, the price of gold rose and fell back, standing above the 200-day moving average, and there is room for further rise. Pay attention to the US consumer confidence index in August.
2021-08-31
12159
On Tuesday (August 31) Asian session, spot gold held steady at around 1811. On Monday (August 30), the price of gold rose and fell and closed down 0.4%. The US dollar fluctuated within a narrow range. Investors were cautious before the release of the key US employment report later this week. The rise in the stock market has also put pressure on gold prices.
The focus of the day is the Consumer Confidence Index of the US Consultative Chamber of Commerce in August and the official manufacturing PMI of China in August.
[U.S. economy returns to pre-epidemic levels]
The United States will be the first economy in the G7 to return to its pre-epidemic level. The European economies that suffered more severe contraction during the pandemic lag behind. According to the second quarter GDP data of the OECD, the overall economic indicators of its 38 members have not reached the pre-crisis level, although the organization’s economic growth rate has risen from 0.6% at the beginning of the year to 1.6%. Although the UK’s economic expansion in the second quarter was the strongest among the Group of Seven countries, the biggest gap that needs to be bridged is to return to the level of activity before the outbreak of the new crown epidemic.
[European Central Bank Villeroy hints that the scale of anti-epidemic bond purchases may slow]
Francois Villeroy de Galhau, a member of the European Central Bank Management Committee, said that when deciding on the pace of emergency bond purchases next week, policymakers should consider that financing conditions in the euro zone have become more favorable; this suggests that slowing down of purchases may be imminent .
According to Villeroy, who also serves as the governor of the Bank of France, any changes in the so-called PEPP plan will not be the kind of reduction that Fed Chairman Powell announced on Friday.
Villeroy said, "As far as the monthly scale is concerned, we are considering favorable financing conditions. We should emphasize that it is already more favorable than when we met in June. We must decide the monthly purchase volume in the fourth quarter."
The European Central Bank will meet next week, and policymakers will have to decide how much monetary stimulus measures the region needs in the remaining months of 2021. The European Central Bank has been buying bonds at an average rate of 80 billion euros per month. Under its 1.85 trillion euro emergency plan, there are still about 0.5 trillion euros available.
[S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed new record highs]
The U.S. stock market S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq Index once again set a record closing high on Monday. Boosted by technology stocks, the Fed made a dovish statement on the reduction of monetary stimulus measures last week, renewing investors' attention to economic growth.
The S&P 500 index closed up 0.43%, the Nasdaq index closed up 0.9%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Index closed down 0.16%.
(S&P 500 daily chart)
This is the fourth time the S&P 500 index has set a record closing high in five trading days, and the Nasdaq index has set a record closing high for the fifth time in six trading days. The tension before Er's speech was interrupted.
Ed Moya, senior market analyst for OANDA Americas, said, "It is now clear that the US economy will still receive a lot of support, and this may continue until November. Some investors believe that the reduction in debt purchases may not even begin this year. But one thing everyone agrees on is that Chairman Powell has stated that they are not in a hurry to raise interest rates. He did not link the reduction in debt purchases with the timing of interest rate hikes."
With this in mind, investors have turned to high-growth technology stocks, which tend to benefit from low interest rate expectations because their value depends largely on future earnings.
[EU will resume travel restrictions on the United States]
With the surge in new crown cases, EU countries voted to restore travel restrictions on the United States. This will make the tourism industry suffer a new blow.
According to the EU statement, the majority of eligible ambassadors voted in favor to restore the restrictions on non-essential travel from the United States that were lifted in June.
According to data from the European Union's Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the United States had 588 new cases per 100,000 residents in the two weeks as of August 22, which is much higher than the 75 cases set by the EU guidelines.
The EU's guidance is a recommendation, and the governments of each member state have the final decision. Member states can also choose to exempt travel restrictions with a vaccine certificate.
[Cleveland Federal Reserve Chairman said he does not believe that the recent surge in inflation is sufficient to achieve the Fed’s goals]
U.S. Cleveland Federal Reserve Chairman Meester said on Monday that the U.S. economy is recovering strongly, but she still does not believe that the recent inflation readings are sufficient to achieve the price stability target adjusted by the Fed a year ago.
She said that there are upside risks to inflation and officials need to pay close attention to price changes, but she expects that some inflation indicators will fall after some supply chain disturbances caused by the epidemic are resolved.
Meester’s speech highlighted the growing tensions between the Fed’s policymakers, which are now approaching a policy turning point, but they have not reached a broad consensus on some of the key thresholds that define its goals.
It turns out that defining these thresholds is tricky, and there is little evidence that there is broad consensus among policymakers.
Meester said that before she draws any conclusions, she would like to see more data on inflation next year. She will study the performance of inflation in the past five years, but will also use the Cleveland Fed’s forecast and other indicators to see what level of inflation is expected to be in the future.
As for the labor market, Meister said that the US economy has not yet maximized employment. The fact that there are more job openings than unemployed people suggests that there may be a mismatch between the jobs being created and the people who are looking for work.
Meister reiterated her view that the threshold for the Fed to start reducing asset purchases has been reached, and she hopes to slow down the pace of purchases this year and complete the reduction action before the middle of next year.
In general, the price of gold is still standing above 1800, which is relatively beneficial to the bulls, and there is still a chance for the price of gold to rise further in the market outlook.
(Spot gold daily chart)
GMT+8 8:30, spot gold was quoted at 1811.36 US dollars per ounce.
The focus of the day is the Consumer Confidence Index of the US Consultative Chamber of Commerce in August and the official manufacturing PMI of China in August.
Fundamentals are bad
[U.S. economy returns to pre-epidemic levels]
The United States will be the first economy in the G7 to return to its pre-epidemic level. The European economies that suffered more severe contraction during the pandemic lag behind. According to the second quarter GDP data of the OECD, the overall economic indicators of its 38 members have not reached the pre-crisis level, although the organization’s economic growth rate has risen from 0.6% at the beginning of the year to 1.6%. Although the UK’s economic expansion in the second quarter was the strongest among the Group of Seven countries, the biggest gap that needs to be bridged is to return to the level of activity before the outbreak of the new crown epidemic.
[European Central Bank Villeroy hints that the scale of anti-epidemic bond purchases may slow]
Francois Villeroy de Galhau, a member of the European Central Bank Management Committee, said that when deciding on the pace of emergency bond purchases next week, policymakers should consider that financing conditions in the euro zone have become more favorable; this suggests that slowing down of purchases may be imminent .
According to Villeroy, who also serves as the governor of the Bank of France, any changes in the so-called PEPP plan will not be the kind of reduction that Fed Chairman Powell announced on Friday.
Villeroy said, "As far as the monthly scale is concerned, we are considering favorable financing conditions. We should emphasize that it is already more favorable than when we met in June. We must decide the monthly purchase volume in the fourth quarter."
The European Central Bank will meet next week, and policymakers will have to decide how much monetary stimulus measures the region needs in the remaining months of 2021. The European Central Bank has been buying bonds at an average rate of 80 billion euros per month. Under its 1.85 trillion euro emergency plan, there are still about 0.5 trillion euros available.
[S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed new record highs]
The U.S. stock market S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq Index once again set a record closing high on Monday. Boosted by technology stocks, the Fed made a dovish statement on the reduction of monetary stimulus measures last week, renewing investors' attention to economic growth.
The S&P 500 index closed up 0.43%, the Nasdaq index closed up 0.9%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Index closed down 0.16%.
(S&P 500 daily chart)
This is the fourth time the S&P 500 index has set a record closing high in five trading days, and the Nasdaq index has set a record closing high for the fifth time in six trading days. The tension before Er's speech was interrupted.
Ed Moya, senior market analyst for OANDA Americas, said, "It is now clear that the US economy will still receive a lot of support, and this may continue until November. Some investors believe that the reduction in debt purchases may not even begin this year. But one thing everyone agrees on is that Chairman Powell has stated that they are not in a hurry to raise interest rates. He did not link the reduction in debt purchases with the timing of interest rate hikes."
With this in mind, investors have turned to high-growth technology stocks, which tend to benefit from low interest rate expectations because their value depends largely on future earnings.
Fundamentals are bullish
[EU will resume travel restrictions on the United States]
With the surge in new crown cases, EU countries voted to restore travel restrictions on the United States. This will make the tourism industry suffer a new blow.
According to the EU statement, the majority of eligible ambassadors voted in favor to restore the restrictions on non-essential travel from the United States that were lifted in June.
According to data from the European Union's Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the United States had 588 new cases per 100,000 residents in the two weeks as of August 22, which is much higher than the 75 cases set by the EU guidelines.
The EU's guidance is a recommendation, and the governments of each member state have the final decision. Member states can also choose to exempt travel restrictions with a vaccine certificate.
[Cleveland Federal Reserve Chairman said he does not believe that the recent surge in inflation is sufficient to achieve the Fed’s goals]
U.S. Cleveland Federal Reserve Chairman Meester said on Monday that the U.S. economy is recovering strongly, but she still does not believe that the recent inflation readings are sufficient to achieve the price stability target adjusted by the Fed a year ago.
She said that there are upside risks to inflation and officials need to pay close attention to price changes, but she expects that some inflation indicators will fall after some supply chain disturbances caused by the epidemic are resolved.
Meester’s speech highlighted the growing tensions between the Fed’s policymakers, which are now approaching a policy turning point, but they have not reached a broad consensus on some of the key thresholds that define its goals.
It turns out that defining these thresholds is tricky, and there is little evidence that there is broad consensus among policymakers.
Meester said that before she draws any conclusions, she would like to see more data on inflation next year. She will study the performance of inflation in the past five years, but will also use the Cleveland Fed’s forecast and other indicators to see what level of inflation is expected to be in the future.
As for the labor market, Meister said that the US economy has not yet maximized employment. The fact that there are more job openings than unemployed people suggests that there may be a mismatch between the jobs being created and the people who are looking for work.
Meister reiterated her view that the threshold for the Fed to start reducing asset purchases has been reached, and she hopes to slow down the pace of purchases this year and complete the reduction action before the middle of next year.
In general, the price of gold is still standing above 1800, which is relatively beneficial to the bulls, and there is still a chance for the price of gold to rise further in the market outlook.
(Spot gold daily chart)
GMT+8 8:30, spot gold was quoted at 1811.36 US dollars per ounce.
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