Gold price outlook in 2021: Can Bitcoin surpass gold?

Spot gold rose slightly by 0.1% to US$1,894.66 per ounce. US gold futures rose 0.3% to $1,899.10. Spot silver fell 0.3% to $26.54 per ounce. Platinum rose 0.1% to US$1,066.91 and palladium rose 0.2% to US$2,366.01.

Gold has risen by more than 24% this year, marking its best year since 2010. The unprecedented stimulus measures and low interest rates implemented to cushion the impact of the epidemic have boosted the charm of gold as a hedge against inflation and a safe-haven asset. The dollar fell and hit its lowest level since April 2018, which also supported gold prices.

At the same time, because the new crown epidemic and vaccines are still in a hedged state, there is no clear direction that makes it difficult for risk indicators to drive the price of gold, but Bitcoin is getting higher and higher.

Analysis: Gold price will rebound to $1950 in V shape

Looking to the future, FX Empire analyst Christopher Lewis pointed out that the price of gold is currently undergoing cyclical shocks. He believes that it is only a matter of time before it hits $1,950. This is also the biggest resistance and selling area that investors currently encounter. He said: "I think the market will continue to be higher than the current price in the end, but it is not something that can be reached in a short time. In fact, as long as the price of gold can remain above the 200-day moving average of $1813, it will be long-term. Generally speaking, it will continue to rise. When you look at the recent gold price structure, you can see that the V-shaped trend that is present means that the decline will lead to greater trading volume."

He believes that the U.S. dollar index is still the biggest indicator, because the decline in the U.S. dollar will not only affect itself, but will continue to support gold, which also shows that many investors are trying to preserve wealth through safe-haven assets.

It takes time for Bitcoin to surpass gold

Bitcoin surpassed an all-time high of $28,900. Even though Ethereum is also trending strong, Bitcoin still occupies a 70.4% dominant position in the market. With the entire cryptocurrency market reaching US$754, the total market value of Bitcoin has now exceeded US$535 billion, which is getting closer and closer to the historical high of US$827 billion. After enjoying a return of up to 94% in 2019, Bitcoin investors broke new highs again this year, and now they have received a large number of institutional investment, of which Micro Strategy and Square invested US$475 million and US$50 million respectively. Sean Sanders, CEO of investment company Revix, pointed out that a few years ago, the argument that Bitcoin might surpass the $9 trillion market value of gold seemed far-fetched, but the current situation has proven otherwise.

Historically, gold has maintained its value for a long time and is known as a safe-haven asset. Gold has existed for a long time, Bitcoin has existed for more than a decade, so Bitcoin only accounts for 3.1% of the $9 trillion market value of gold. To exceed the current market value of gold, Bitcoin must rise 25 times from current levels. Sanders explained that this kind of price increase is unlikely to happen within a year or two, and it will take time. However, based on the growth in demand from investment institutions, coupled with the change in investors' perceptions of cryptocurrency, this is not unimaginable.