Gold price can push above $1900 as bullish sentiment pervades (With Trading Strategy)
Israel launches heavy air strikes on Gaza; death toll nears 200; Gold hits 3-month high as dollar, yields ease on U.S. retail sales data.

Gold prices rose to a three-month high on Monday, as a weaker dollar and a dip in Treasury yields boosted metal's appeal after data last week showed U.S. retail sales unexpectedly stalled in April.
Spot gold was up 0.51% at $1,852.63 per ounce by 15:50(GMT+8).
The dollar index slipped from a near one-week high touched last week, making gold less expensive for other currency
holders.
Benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields retreated further from a more than one-month high hit last week.
Lower bond yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-interest bearing gold.
Data on Friday showed U.S. retail sales unexpectedly stalled in April as the boost from stimulus checks faded, but an acceleration is likely in the coming months amid record savings and a reopening economy.
The weak retail sales report curbed rising inflation worries and bets over a sooner-than-expected U.S. Federal Reserve rate hike.
Gold tends to benefit from lower interest rate environment as it reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.
Dallas Federal Reserve President Robert Kaplan on Friday raised the prospect of a worrisome rise in U.S. inflation expectations, as imbalances between supply and demand for labor and goods put upward pressure on prices.
Israeli warplanes have unleashed a series of heavy airstrikes at several locations of Gaza City. Explosions rocked the city from north to south for 10 minutes early on Monday. The airstrikes were heavier, on a wider area, and lasted longer than a series of air raids 24 hours earlier in which 42 Palestinians were killed.
Geopolitical instability would push up gold prices.
The instability of geopolitics will boost the risk of the market, which conducive for gold prices.
Rising inflation pressures and renewed economic uncertainty continue to generate strong bullish sentiment in the gold market among market analysts and retail investors, according to the latest Kitco News Gold Survey.
Volatility picked up in the gold market this week. Still, analysts have said that a Goldilocks environment for the precious metal could push prices back above $1,850 an ounce, a vital technical area representing a critical retracement level and the 200-day moving average.
"The question is: because of rising inflation, will the Federal Reserve's hands be forced to raise interest rates sooner than expected," said Robin Bhar, an independent market analyst. "Although inflation is rising, because of the economic data we have seen, I think the Fed has room to be patient and that will support gold. As economies reopen, it is justified that inflation pushes higher, but the economic data is still uneven."
This week, 13 analysts participated in Kitco News' gold survey. Of those, ten analysts, or 77%, said they were bullish on gold; at the same time, one analyst, or 8%, said they were bearish on prices next week. Two analysts, or 15%, said they see gold prices trading sideways.
Photo: KITCO
Sean Lusk, co-director of commercial hedging at Walsh Trading, said that he is bullish on gold not only because inflation is heating up, but the growing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East as the conflict between Israel and Palestinians in the Gaza Strip continues to escalate.
"I think we can expect gold prices to attract some safe-haven flows in the next few weeks and that could push prices back above $1,850 an ounce," he said.
Lusk added that his target is for gold prices to eventually rally back to $1,900 an ounce and be neutral on the year before it starts a new strong uptrend.
Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management, said that he is bullish on gold as investors once again embrace the precious metal as an inflation hedge.
"The sentiment has changed and investors who abandoned gold in the second half of last year are returning, along with inflation. The Federal reserve may say inflation is only temporary, but the gold market does not believe it," he said.
Darin Newsom, president of Darin Newsom Analysis, said that he is bullish on gold in the near term. He said he expects to see further technical weakness in the U.S. dollar. However, he added that the $1,843 level could represent a near-term resistance level.
However, not everyone is expecting gold prices to break out again. Adam Button said that after breaking above $1,800 an ounce last week, the precious metal could be due for some sideways price action.
"Gold has had a great bounce from the March lows. Now it's time for some consolidation ahead of the next leg," he said.
Marc Chandler, managing director at Bannockburn Global Forex, said that although the precious metal has been stronger than expected, he is still a little cautious when it comes to further upside for gold. He added that the market is a little overstretched.
"Gold looks like it wants to retest the 1845-1850 area, which holds the 200-day moving average," he said. "Momentum indicators are stretched. I would be more inclined to sell into strength at the start of next week, but keeping a watchful eye on yields.”
Trading Strategy (source: Trading Central)
Pivot: 1841.00
Our preference: long positions above 1841.00 with targets at 1866.00 & 1879.00 in extension.
Alternative scenario: below 1841.00 look for further downside with 1833.00 & 1827.00 as targets.
Comment: the RSI calls for a new upleg.
Supports and resistances:
1891.00
1879.00
1866.00
1853.00 Last
1841.00
1833.00
1827.00
Guideline for Trading Central strategy
Trend chart reading guideline
1. First look at the time period in the upper left corner of the chart: ·30MIN and 1H chart shows the trading suggestions for intraday ·Daily chart shows the market trend analysis in next 2-3 days
2. The blue horizontal line on the chart marks the pivot: pivot indicates the reversal of the market. When the price is above the pivot, it indicates an upward trend, when the price is below the pivot , it indicates a downward trend. When the price breaks through the pivot, the trend is reversed.
3. The red and blue thin curves in the Candlestick chart chart are technical indicators: Red line is MA20+Bollinger bands, Blue line is MA50. under the Candlestick chart chart are also the technical indicators: Blue line is RSI, Red line is 9MA;
4. The green horizontal line is the resistance level for a price increase, and is also the profit target for long orders; the red horizontal line is the support level for a price decrease, and is also the profit target for short orders.
How to use TC strategy?
1.[Pivot] is the reversal line of the market trend. When the price up the pivot line which means in Bullish, you can open a long position or Buy. on the contrary, when the price under pivot line which means in bearish. You ‘d better make short positions or Sell.
2. [our preference] is the main trading suggestion for your reference. You can exit your trading refer to this target or close positions before it.
3. [Alternative scenario] is the plan B for your reference.
4. [Comment] is the technical analysis of market trends and technical support for trading strategies.
5. [Supports and resistance] Supports are levels where the price tend to find support as it falls.
Resistances are levels where the price tend to find resistance as it rises. So, exit before the trend reverse.
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