Gold market analysis: U.S. bonds and U.S. indexes have fallen from high levels, and gold is showing a V-shaped rebound

On Monday (May 16), as the yields of the U.S. dollar and U.S. government bonds both fell, spot gold fluctuated and closed up, having previously fallen below the $1,800 mark. In late U.S. trading, spot gold closed at 1,823.82 yuan per ounce, up $12.41 or 0.69%, with the intraday high of $1,826.788 per ounce and the lowest of $1,786.58 per ounce.



On the news, former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said that the problem of high inflation has developed into the most serious event since the early 1980s. In North American markets, money market futures are pricing in a 100% chance that the Fed will raise rates by 50 basis points at its June meeting. Earlier in the day, New York Fed President Williams said the number one issue is inflation, which is currently too high and remains high. Williams said a 50 basis point rate hike would make sense at the upcoming meeting, adding to comments from central bank policymakers that China's fight against the coronavirus and the war in Ukraine were important drivers of market volatility. In terms of data, the New York Fed announced on Monday that the New York Fed manufacturing sentiment index fell 36.2 points to minus 11.6 in May. In Europe, the EU lowered its forecast for euro zone economic growth in 2022 to 2.7% from an earlier forecast of 4%. Gold prices pulled off session lows on Monday as the dollar retreated from morning highs. U.S. Treasury yields traded near 3-1/2-year highs earlier last week before retreating. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rate fell 5 basis points to about 2.88% earlier this week after a string of disappointing global economic data. Gold's modest rebound was attributed to lower U.S. Treasury yields and a modest pullback in the dollar. But the dollar's overall trend "remains high as the Fed aggressively raises interest rates. In the evening, the release of U.S. retail sales data will be in the spotlight. The preliminary estimate for U.S. monthly retail sales is 0.7%, compared to the previous reading of 0.7%. 0.5%. If the data is higher than expected, it may continue to be good for the dollar, on the contrary, it may give gold a chance to continue to rebound at a low level.

Yesterday, the gold market first fell and then rose. The market opened at 1810.7 in the early trading, and then the market rose slightly. After giving the position of 1817.8, the market quickly fell back during the European trading period. The daily line was the lowest at 1786.3. , the daily line reached the highest position of 1826.8 and the market was sorted out. After the daily line finally closed at the position of 1823.7, the market closed in the shape of a hammer with a very long lower shadow, and after such a pattern ended, on the daily chart There is yang and yin and there is a bottom-up structure. If the top can break through 1831, it will further challenge the resistance strength of 1845-1850.

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Bank of China Guangdong Branch Wang Gang Source: Bank of China official website