Gold Market Analysis: U.S. Treasury Yields Fall, Gold Slightly Rise

The U.S. dollar index held steady on September 13 and rose to 92.88 earlier, the highest since August 27. The fall in U.S. bond yields gave up the gains. Spot gold rose slightly, but failed to regain the US$1,800 mark. The US dollar index remained strong, limiting the growth of gold prices.



The focus will be on the monthly U.S. Consumer Price Index to be announced on Tuesday, which is the Fed’s preferred indicator for measuring inflation. Economists surveyed by FactSet expect the consumer price index in August to rise 5.3% from the same period last year. Retail and production data for August will also be announced this week. "Supply bottlenecks, inventory shortages, rising commodity prices and rising freight rates have all contributed to rising input costs," said Charlie Ripley, senior investment strategist at Allianz Investment Management. Last Friday's wholesale price data should be an eye-opener for the Fed, as inflationary pressures still seem to have not eased, and consumers may continue to feel inflationary pressures in the coming months. This makes the market pay attention to what the Fed will do at its next meeting from September 21st to 22nd. Cleveland Federal Reserve Chairman Meester said on Friday that she still hopes that the central bank will begin to reduce the scale of asset purchases this year. Despite weak employment growth in August, policymakers still indicated that they plan to start reducing support measures. There is even a view that if inflation really gets out of control, the Fed will have to control it, which means that it will reduce debt purchases faster and raise interest rates earlier than expected, which is not a good thing for gold.

From a technical point of view, given that the relative strength index is firmer and transactions continue to exceed short-term key support levels, gold buyers seem to have not given up resistance unless they fall below the trend line support level near $1,783. If the price of gold falls below US$1,783, the 50-period moving average may fall below the 100-period moving average, forming a dead cross, which will expand the gold price to the five-week support level near US$1760-58. However, if the short-term gold price can rise effectively to break through 1800, it may gain more room for upside.

Bank of China Guangdong Branch Wang Gang

Original title: 20210914-U.S. Treasury yields fell, gold rose slightly

Source: Bank of China official website