Global aviation fuel demand is slowly recovering. Oil prices rose strongly last week (with trading strategy)
The two major crude oil futures both closed up on the day. Before the deadline, US WTI crude oil futures for August rose 97 cents, or 1.33%, to close at $74.05 per barrel; Brent August futures rose 99 cents, or 1.31%, to $76.18 per barrel. This week, U.S. oil closed up more than 3.0%, and Bursa oil rose 3.63%.

Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at the Price Futures Group, said, “The reason for the successive increase in oil prices is simple. Global oil demand is recovering faster than supply. U.S. oil production is declining, and OPEC seems reluctant to increase production too much, even if the global oil market is very Obviously pray for more supplies."
In an interview this week, Willie Walsh, Director General of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), said: "I think Europe may open up faster than we expected."
Institutional Comment: Although the outlook for the aviation industry this year looks more optimistic than this time in 2020, it will still take years, not months, for aviation fuel demand to return to the levels before the outbreak. For example, consulting firm FGE Energy told Reuters that in Europe, refiners continue to blend aviation fuel with diesel and still limit crude oil production.
Focus on OPEC+ meeting
OPEC+ will hold several meetings this week to assess global oil market conditions and finalize production policies for the next few months on Thursday. It is widely expected that OPEC+ will increase production again due to the continued improvement in demand prospects.
Last Friday, the price of WTI crude oil in the United States climbed to a new high since October 2018, and at the same time, it rose for the fifth consecutive week.
Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA, said: "Due to improved demand prospects and continued tight market conditions, OPEC+ may only increase production slightly at the July 1 ministerial meeting, so crude oil prices have risen."
Marshall Steeves, an energy market analyst at IHS Markit, said that even if OPEC+ decides to increase production in August, "the facts may prove that this is not enough to meet the expected increase in demand. Global inventories have tightened, and this is also the case in the United States.”
"The oil market may respond to unexpected OPEC+ news, whether it is a substantial increase in production quotas since August, or only a small increase or even no increase in production." Steeves said.
Trading strategy (Source: Trading Central)
Pivot: 73.65
Our preference: long positions above 73.65 with targets at 74.45 & 75.00 in extension.
Alternative scenario: below 73.65 look for further downside with 73.15 & 72.80 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is bullish and calls for further upside.
Supports and resistances:
75.60
75.00
74.45
74.20 Last
73.65
73.15
72.80
Guideline for Trading Central strategy
Trend chart reading guideline
1. First look at the time period in the upper left corner of the chart:
‧30MIN and 1H chart shows the trading suggestions for intraday
‧Daily chart shows the market trend analysis in next 2-3 days
2. The blue horizontal line on the chart marks the pivot: pivot indicates the reversal of the market. When the price is above the pivot, it indicates an upward trend, when the price is below the pivot , it indicates a downward trend. When the price breaks through the pivot, the trend is reversed.
3. The red and blue thin curves in the Candlestick chart chart are technical indicators: Red line is MA20+Bollinger bands, Blue line is MA50. under the Candlestick chart chart are also the technical indicators: Blue line is RSI, Red line is 9MA;
4. The green horizontal line is the resistance level for a price increase, and is also the profit target for long orders; the red horizontal line is the support level for a price decrease, and is also the profit target for short orders.
How to use TC strategy?
1.[Pivot] is the reversal line of the market trend. When the price up the pivot line which means in Bullish, you can open a long position or Buy. on the contrary, when the price under pivot line which means in bearish. You ‘d better make short positions or Sell.
2. [our preference] is the main trading suggestion for your reference. You can exit your trading refer to this target or close positions before it.
3. [Alternative scenario] is the plan B for your reference.
4. [Comment] is the technical analysis of market trends and technical support for trading strategies.
5. [Supports and resistance] Supports are levels where the price tend to find support as it falls.
Resistances are levels where the price tend to find resistance as it rises. So, exit before the trend reverse.
Bonus rebate to help investors grow in the trading world!