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GBP/USD maintains a defensive stance above 1.2400, with attention on US inflation, BoE's Bailey, and Fed minutes
GBP/USD struggles to prolong yesterday's rebound from a one-week low, as it has been subdued recently. Positive housing sales and labor force growth in the UK, combined with muddled Fed comments, encourage purchasers of the cable. Bulls are bolstered by the IMF's support for hawkish central bank actions and the cautious sentiment preceding US-UK Brexit negotiations in Northern Ireland. US CPI for March and FOMC Minutes will be crucial in light of diminishing hawkish wagers on a Fed rate hike in May.
GBP/USD fluctuates near 1.2415-20 as bulls struggle to maintain control in the early hours of Wednesday's crucial session. In doing so, the Cable pair reflects a cautious outlook ahead of the March US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the minutes from the most recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Monetary Policy Meeting. Governor of the Bank of England (BoE) Andrew Bailey's speech is also essential to follow.
However, the most recent headlines from Bloomberg indicate that the British labor market is no longer constrained. "The number of people available for work in the United Kingdom increased for the first time in two years, easing one of the tightest labor markets in more than a decade," reported the news.
In the same vein, Reuters reported optimistic UK housing prices, allowing GBP/USD purchasers to maintain optimism ahead of high-profile data events. Reuters reported on Wednesday that British home sales recovered to within a hair's breadth of pre-crisis levels in March, indicating a rebound from September, when the failed economic plan of former prime minister Liz Truss triggered market turmoil.
Neel Kashkari, president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, recently stated, "The 2% inflation target should not be changed." However, other Fed policymakers have recently signaled conflicting concerns and pushed the Cable bulls back. Patrick Harker, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, stated that the Federal Reserve will continue to scrutinize available data to determine if additional action is required. Before him, John Williams, president of the New York Fed, stated that we will need to reduce interest rates if inflation falls. In addition, the president of the Chicago Fed, Austan Goolsbee, stated on Tuesday that they should be circumspect about raising interest rates in light of recent banking sector developments.
It should be noted that the IMF reduced its forecast for global real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for 2023 from 2.9% in its January report to 2.8%. However, the global lender defends the efforts of the major central banks to combat inflation and provides no significant indications to GBP/USD pair traders.
In this environment, S&P 500 Futures remain directionless after Wall Street's muddled close, while US Treasury bond yields move higher and encourage US Dollar sellers.
Moving forward, market forecasts indicate that headline CPI will decline to 5.2% YoY from 6.0% previously, while the FOMC Minutes must defend the rate rise trajectory to halt GBP/USD bulls. Also noteworthy is the Northern Ireland meeting between US President Joe Biden and British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. (NI).
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