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Market News GBP/USD Price Analysis: The Ascending Two-Month-Old Trend-Line Holds The Key Ahead Of FOMC

GBP/USD Price Analysis: The Ascending Two-Month-Old Trend-Line Holds The Key Ahead Of FOMC

The GBP/USD pair encounters some supply on Wednesday, erasing a portion of the overnight gains. The USD maintains its position near a two-week high and exerts some pressure ahead of the FOMC meeting. A diminution in the likelihood of more aggressive BoE rate increases contributes to the modest decline.

TOP1 Markets Analyst

2023-07-26

11095

GBP:USD.png

During Wednesday's Asian session, the GBP/USD pair struggles to capitalise on Tuesday's decent recovery move from the vicinity of a two-week low and attracts some sellers near the 1.2900 level. Spot prices are currently trading within the range of 1.2880-1.2875, down nearly 0.20% on the day, but the downside appears to be capped as traders eagerly await the outcome of the highly anticipated two-day FOMC policy meeting.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) when it announces its decision Wednesday evening. Investors remain sceptical as to whether the US central bank will adopt a more dovish posture or maintain its forecast for a 50 basis point rate hike by the end of the year. Together with Tuesday's buoyant Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, this helps the US Dollar (USD) maintain its position just below its two-week high. In addition, diminished wagers on more aggressive policy tightening by the Bank of England (BoE) continue to weigh on the British Pound (GBP) and exert some pressure on the GBP/USD pair.

From a technical standpoint, spot prices were able to defend an ascending trend-line extending from May's swing low and halted the recent steep corrective decline from this month's highest level since April 2022. The aforementioned support, which is presently located around 1.2800, should serve as a pivot point for short-term traders. A convincing break below could alter the bias towards bearish traders and drag the GBP/USD pair to the 1.2755-1.2750 level of intermediate support en route to the 1.2700 level.

The latter is closely followed by the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which is presently located in the region of 1.2675. Some follow-through selling could expose the 1.2600 level before spot prices decline to test the next significant support in the region of 1.2530-1.2525.

In contrast, movement above the 1.2900 round number is likely to encounter firm resistance near the 1.2930 area, which corresponds to 38.2% Fibo. However, sustained strength beyond will indicate that the recent downtrend observed over the past two weeks or so has reached its conclusion. The GBP/USD pair may then attempt to reclaim the psychological level of 1,3000, which is also the 23.6% Fibonacci level. The succeeding increase has the potential to push spot prices beyond the 1.3040 region and towards the 1.3100 round number.