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Market News GBP/USD Investors Hold The Fort As US Dollar Stays Soft

GBP/USD Investors Hold The Fort As US Dollar Stays Soft

GBP/USD investors are in town as the US Dollar weakness and Brexit noise comes back to the fore. In March, the Bank of England is anticipated to raise Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%.

Daniel Rogers

2023-02-28

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GBP/USD is flat in Asia as markets consolidate the opening range and US "Dollar softness that came in at the start of the week. At the time of writing, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2065 and has adhered to a 1.2042/67 range so far. Sterling is up from a 7-week low due to not only US Dollar weakness but also following British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak signing a new trade agreement with the European Union.

In recent days, the Northern Ireland Protocol has influenced the trajectory of the Pound in the forex market, while a new agreement known as the Windsor Framework has been drafted between the two parties. The agreement is designed to safeguard trade flows within the UK, protecting Northern Ireland’s position within the UK. However, as the Guardian writes, ''the prime minister is plainly not out of the woods. Once the detail emerges, there could be ministerial resignations.''

''Mr Sunak says 'parliament will have a vote at the appropriate time and that vote will be respected'. This gives him the advantage of timing over his would-be opponents who might otherwise find a way to engineer a vote at a moment of maximum danger and compel the government to win with Labour support, which would damage, perhaps fatally, Mr Sunak.''

Meanwhile, the Bank of England is seen increasing Bank Rate by a further 25 bps to 4.25% in March. ''We believe the BoE will be comfortable pivoting to a 25bps hike in March, followed by a pause in May,'' analysts at Standard Chartered argued. They indicate that they will do so, but two factors are crucial:

''(1) just how generous pay rewards are for public-sector unions, and (2) whether government efforts to reduce economic inactivity – to be outlined in the budget on 14 March – are effective. The former could potentially send an unwanted inflationary signal to the private sector, while the latter could help provide some additional slack to the employment market and also help work through lingering labour supply shortages owing to COVID and Brexit,'' the analysts explained.