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Market News GBP/USD Fails to Close Below 1.2750 Ahead of the Fed Rate and US CPI Announcement

GBP/USD Fails to Close Below 1.2750 Ahead of the Fed Rate and US CPI Announcement

The US Dollar is firmer on Wednesday, resulting in a modest adverse bias in the GBP/USD market, which is trading at approximately 1.2740. Rates are expected to remain unchanged at the June monetary policy meeting of the United States Federal Reserve. The BoE's prospective interest rate path was impacted by the weakened UK employment data.

TOP1 Markets Analyst

2024-06-12

12380

GBP:USD 2.jpeg

During the early Asian session on Wednesday, the GBP/USD pair is trading with slight losses at approximately 1.2740. The main pair is being impacted by the cautious mood and the extended gains in the US Dollar (USD). Investors will intently monitor the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data in the hours leading up to the FOMC meeting.

The expectation that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin reducing interest rates in September was dampened by the stronger US employment report last week. Nevertheless, a less-than-anticipated inflation report could potentially persuade Fed Chair Jerome Powell to maintain his commitment to three interest rate reductions by the end of the year. Consequently, the Greenback may be subjected to selling pressure. The core CPI is anticipated to increase by 3.5% YoY in the same report period, while the US CPI figure is anticipated to increase by 3.4% YoY in May.

It is widely anticipated that the Federal Reserve will maintain rates at its June meeting on Wednesday. Traders will derive additional insights from the most recent interest rate projections regarding the frequency with which the Federal Reserve anticipates reducing rates in 2024. The markets anticipate only one to two reductions in 2024, as indicated by the CME FedWatch Tool.

Conversely, the labor market in the United Kingdom has experienced contraction for the fourth consecutive year. The employment change decreased by 140K in the three months leading up to April, which is a smaller decrease than the 177K observed in the previous reading. In the interim, the ILO Unemployment Rate rose from 4.3% to 4.4% in the three months leading up to April, which was more than the market's expectation of 4.3%. In May, the number of individuals claiming unemployment benefits increased by 50.4K, following an 8.4K increase in April. The Unemployment Rate and May Claimant data provided a concerning depiction of the UK labor market, resulting in a slight decline in the Pound Sterling (GBP) following the weaker reports.