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GBP/USD Consolidates Recent Losses To a Multi-Month Low And Appears Weak Near 1.2500
GBP/USD persists in a defensive posture close to a three-month low reached on Wednesday. Bets for more Fed rate hikes continue to underpin the USD and weigh on the major. The softer tone is a result of the BoE's signal that rate hikes may be approaching their conclusion.
During Thursday's Asian session, the GBP/USD pair enters a bearish consolidation phase and oscillates just above a three-month low reached the day before. Spot prices are currently trading near the psychological 1.2500 level and appear susceptible to extending a nearly two-month-old downward trend.
The US Dollar (USD) takes a brief hiatus following its recent rally to its highest level since March 9 and emerges as a significant factor supporting the GBP/USD pair. In the wake of growing expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain higher interest rates for an extended period of time, any significant USD correction remains unlikely. The overnight release of the optimistic US ISM Services PMI, which exceeded even the most optimistic estimates and rose to a six-month high of 54.5 in August, confirmed the predictions.
Additional details of the report indicated an increase in new orders and a robust US economy. In addition, the higher Prices Paid subcomponent was viewed as a possible indication of persistently elevated inflationary pressures. This should enable the Fed to maintain its hawkish stance and increase the likelihood of a November interest rate hike. In the meantime, the outlook remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields, which, along with a generally weakened risk tone, supports the likelihood of the dollar appreciating further.
In contrast, the British Pound (GBP) is weakened by Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey's dovish signal on Wednesday, in which he indicated that the central bank is much closer to terminating its string of interest rate hikes. Bailey and two MPC members testified before Parliament that the BoE is concerned that further tightening could cause an unnecessarily severe recession. This, coupled with the USD-supportive fundamental environment mentioned previously, suggests that the path of least resistance for the GBP/USD pair is to the downside.
On Thursday, the United Kingdom is not scheduled to disclose any market-moving economic data, leaving spot prices at the mercy of USD price dynamics. Later in the early North American session, traders will take cues from the US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims data and influential FOMC members' speeches. Along with the US bond yields and broader risk sentiment, this will impact the USD price dynamics and create short-term trading opportunities in the GBP/USD pair.
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