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Market News GBP/USD Bulls May Attempt To Defend The 1.2420s

GBP/USD Bulls May Attempt To Defend The 1.2420s

Bears loiter near a potential critical resistance area in the GBP/USD pair. A break of structure to the downside is anticipated on the back of renewed US Dollar strength.

Alina Haynes

2023-04-26

7758

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GBP/USD is presently correcting toward a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level near the 1.2420s as it encounters resistance while the Greenback yields back ground after Tuesday's rally.

In response to earnings concerns in the financial industry, market sentiment turned risk-averse, which drove the US Dollar higher. The DXY index, which measures the US dollar versus a basket of currencies, reached a high of 101.949 as a result of the associated risk-off flows.

Deposit declines at First Republic Bank have reignited concerns about the banking industry's health. In addition, UBS reported a 52% decline in quarterly earnings as it prepared to acquire Credit Suisse. In the meantime, a lackluster consumer confidence report and a decline in Federal Reserve manufacturing data contributed to the decline in Wall Street stock prices, bolstering the US Dollar's safe-haven qualities.

Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman explained that Deputy Governor Broadbent of the Bank of England defended the bank's policies. ''Specifically,'' said the analysts, ''he stated that the BOE's quantitative easing initiative during the pandemic was not accountable for the present high inflation shock. Broadbent observed that "the evidence does not strongly support the claim that QE inevitably leads to rapid growth of commercial bank deposits and that this, in turn, leads to excessive inflation." He added that it was "difficult to see these additional deposits as the primary cause of the subsequent inflation" and that "very large jumps" in import prices, such as those for energy, "seem more likely." We concur. Massive surges of quantitative easing in the aftermath of the financial crisis and the eurozone crisis did not ignite inflation.

Analysts anticipate another 25 basis point increase June 22 is priced at around 80%, while the likelihood of a final 25 basis hike peaks near 75% on September 21. As a result, the apex policy rate is anticipated to be close to 5%, compared to 4.75-4.75% last week and between 4.50-4.75% the week before.