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Market News GBP/JPY Follows Declining Yields And BoJ Worries As Sellers Attack 184.00 Amid Volatile Market Conditions

GBP/JPY Follows Declining Yields And BoJ Worries As Sellers Attack 184.00 Amid Volatile Market Conditions

GBP/JPY exhibits a three-day losing trend and persists with moderate losses at a two-week low as of late. Yields will be impacted by diminishing fears of higher interest rates, US-China optimism, and BOJ intervention concerns. Risk catalysts and Japan's inflation are examined for directionality.

TOP1 Markets Analyst
2023-08-24
7910

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During Thursday's opening hours in Tokyo, GBP/JPY sellers flirted with the 184,000.00 round number. In doing so, the cross-currency pair validates the market's cautious disposition ahead of the top-tier data/event, while maintaining the previous day's adverse bias in the face of declining Treasury bond yields and expectations of Bank of Japan (BoJ) intervention.

 

GBP/JPY remains defensive around 184.00, near 184.15 as of press time, as sentiment weakens ahead of the annual two-day Jackson Hole Symposium.

 

Nonetheless, August data for the UK's Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) were weaker than Japan's, which exacerbated concerns of a British recession and weighed on the GBP/JPY exchange rate. Additionally, the decline in US Treasury bond yields weighs on the cross-currency pair.

 

On Wednesday, the UK S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI fell to 42.5 from 45.3 and market expectations of 45.0, while the Services PMI dipped to 48.7 from 50.8 and 51.5 the month before. With this, the S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI for the United Kingdom decreased to 47.9 for the month in question, down from 50.8 and analysts' expectations of 50.3.

 

At home, Japan's first reading of the Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI for August improved to 49.7 from 49.6, versus 49.5 expected, while the Services counterpart increased to 54.3 from 53.8 for the same month.

 

Elsewhere, US 10-year Treasury bond yields displayed the largest daily decline in three weeks, reflecting the market's optimism; they were sluggish around 4.19 percent at the time of publication.

 

In addition to the aforementioned factors, optimistic news regarding US-China trade relations boosted sentiment and weighed on the GBP/JPY exchange rate. The upcoming trip to Beijing by US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo raises optimism for an improvement in US-China trade relations. In the same vein are the early-week reports indicating that the United States removed 27 Chinese entities from its Unverified List, lifted sanctions against those entities, and signalled a desire to improve diplomatic relations.

 

The recent easing of the Bank of England's (BoE) hawkish bias versus expectations of the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) departure from ultra-easy monetary policy favours GBP/JPY bears. Therefore, the Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and the central bankers' speech on Friday will be crucial in determining near-term trends.


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