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Market News From April 18th to April 22nd, the heavy information and data forecast for the week
From April 18th to April 22nd, the heavy information and data forecast for the week
From April 18th to April 22nd, the data that investors need to pay attention to: China's first quarter GDP, US housing starts in March, API and EIA crude oil inventory changes in the week of April 15th, the United States as of April 16th The number of people who filed for unemployment benefits at the beginning of the week. In terms of major events, we need to pay attention to the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary policy meeting, and the Federal Reserve will announce the Beige Book of economic conditions. In addition, a number of Fed officials and Bank of England Governor Bailey will speak next week, and investors need to keep an eye on it. Finally, investors also need to pay attention to the Easter closing announcements of major exchanges.
2022-04-15
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From April 18th to April 22nd, the data that investors need to pay attention to: China's first quarter GDP, US housing starts in March, API and EIA crude oil inventory changes in the week of April 15th, the United States as of April 16th The number of people who filed for unemployment benefits at the beginning of the week. In terms of major events, we need to pay attention to the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary policy meeting, and the Federal Reserve announced the Beige Book of economic conditions. In addition, a number of Fed officials and Bank of England Governor Bailey will speak next week, and investors need to keep an eye on it. Finally, investors also need to pay attention to the Easter closing announcements of major exchanges.
Monday (April 18) Keywords: China's first-quarter GDP, retail sales of consumer goods, Easter closed announcement
Next Monday, China will release GDP data for the first quarter of 2022. China's fourth-quarter GDP increased by 4% year-on-year, compared with the previous value of 4.9%.
Credit Suisse chief China economist Wang Yi predicts that China's GDP growth rate this year may reach 5.9%. It was the most optimistic number among economists surveyed by Bloomberg. His view is based on three foundations: first, the impact of lockdowns on production will be smaller than consumption; second, government and business investment will grow strongly; and third, housing investment will grow despite sluggish property sales because Existing projects still need to be completed. He said that the biggest domestic risk facing the Chinese economy right now is the lockdown, "but its impact is still unclear and cannot be fully incorporated into our forecast." Once the impact of the lockdown becomes clearer, he may revise the forecast to Close to 5.6%.
Due to the Easter holiday next Monday, investors need to pay attention to the announcement of the closure of major exchanges.
Tuesday (April 19) Keywords: U.S. housing starts in March, building permits in March, the Reserve Bank of Australia released the minutes of its monetary policy meeting
U.S. construction permits fell 10.8% month-on-month in February, compared with an expected decline of 7.2%, and a 10.4% increase in the previous value. In the United States, new housing starts were 1.421 million in February, compared with an expected 1.56 million and the previous value of 1.58 million.
U.S. housing starts rebounded to their highest level since 2006 in February, suggesting builders have had greater success in overcoming constraints on raw materials and labor.
The data showed that residential construction activity strengthened in February after weather factors and worker absenteeism due to mutant omicron strains weighed on construction activity in January. Still, builders are struggling to keep up with buyer demand in the face of volatile supply chains, high commodity prices and continued difficulty recruiting skilled workers.
The Reserve Bank of Australia kept the official cash rate (OCR) unchanged at 0.1% at its April interest rate meeting, but no longer mentioned "patient wait" on interest rate hikes in its post-meeting monetary policy statement. Boosted by the news, the Australian dollar rose to its highest level against the US dollar since July last year. Investors can learn more details from the RBA meeting minutes on April 19.
In addition, investors need to pay attention to the World Bank/IMF report on the world economic outlook and global financial stability, and St. Louis Fed President Bullard's speech on the US economy and monetary policy.
Wednesday (April 20) Keywords: U.S. API crude oil inventory changes for the week ended April 15, EIA crude oil inventory changes for the week ended April 15, U.S. March existing home sales
For the week ended April 8, U.S. API crude oil inventories rose by 7.8 million barrels, gasoline inventories fell by 5.1 million barrels, and distillate inventories fell by 5 million barrels.
According to data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), as of April 8, commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 9.382 million barrels to 421.8 million barrels, an increase of 2.3%, partly due to the release of crude oil from the national strategic reserve; gasoline inventories A decrease of 3.649 million barrels was the largest since the week of October 15, 2021; refined oil inventories decreased by 2.902 million barrels; strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) inventories decreased by 3.899 million barrels to 560.7 million barrels, a decrease of 0.69%.
According to data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), as of April 8, commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 9.382 million barrels to 421.8 million barrels, an increase of 2.3%, partly due to the release of crude oil from the national strategic reserve; gasoline inventories A decrease of 3.649 million barrels was the largest since the week of October 15, 2021; refined oil inventories decreased by 2.902 million barrels; strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) inventories decreased by 3.899 million barrels to 560.7 million barrels, a decrease of 0.69%. U.S. crude oil exports fell by 1.513 million barrels per day to 2.18 million barrels per day last week; commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves last week were 5.995 million barrels per day, a decrease of 305,000 barrels per day from the previous week.
According to the latest data released by the National Association of Realtors, the total number of existing home sales in the United States fell 7.2% year-on-year to 6.02 million units in February on a seasonally adjusted basis, compared with an expected 6.1 million units. The drop was much larger than expected, the biggest drop since February 2021.
Real estate experts widely expect trends similar to those of the past two years to continue this year - scarce inventory and strong demand will continue to push up home prices; while record home prices and rising mortgage rates will continue to erode home purchases affordability.
On April 20, investors will also need to pay attention to speeches from San Francisco Fed President Daly and Chicago Fed President Evans on the outlook for the U.S. economy.
Thursday (April 21) Keywords: U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ended April 16, the Federal Reserve announced the Beige Book of economic conditions
The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits rose to 185,000 in the week ended April 9, from 166,000 in the previous week and an expected 171,000. While data showed initial jobless claims rose slightly more than expected, they remained close to a 54-year low hit earlier this month. Initial jobless claims fell to the lowest level since 1968 at 167,000 the previous week. That compares with an average weekly increase of 218,000 jobless claims before the 2019 pandemic.
However, underlying trends in the jobless claims data suggest that the labor market still lacks sufficient labor supply to meet demand. As a result, labor costs for businesses in every industry are rising, causing inflation to soar further.
On April 21, the Federal Reserve will also announce the Beige Book of economic conditions, and investors also need to keep an eye on it.
Friday (April 22) Keywords: Manufacturing PMI of many European countries in April, Bank of England Governor Bailey and ECB President Lagarde speak
Manufacturing recovery in Europe and Asia slowed in March, mainly due to the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the introduction of economic sanctions by Western countries against Russia, which led to a deepening of global supply shortages and soaring production costs.
The euro zone's manufacturing PMI fell to a 14-month low in March, and while 56.5 was still well above the 50 dividing line between prosperity and decline, the data showed that the euro zone's two largest economies, Germany and France, both appeared to be struggling. Separately, the European Commission's Eurozone Economic Confidence Index fell to 108.5 in March from a downwardly revised 113.9 in February, while consumer confidence plummeted to -18.7 from -8.8.
As the epidemic continues, the manufacturing PMI of many countries in the euro zone is expected to remain unsatisfactory in April.
Bank of England Governor Bailey said recently that the shock from energy prices this year will be bigger than any year in the 1970s. Signs of a slowdown in growth and demand are starting to be seen, with pressure on demand affecting domestic inflation. Under the current circumstances, tightening the policy is appropriate.
The European Central Bank announced at its policy meeting that ended on April 14 that it would continue to keep three key interest rates unchanged, namely the main refinancing rate at 0%, the marginal lending rate at 0.25%, and the deposit rate at -0.50%. How the euro zone economy develops will depend critically on how the conflict evolves, the impact of current sanctions and possible further steps, ECB President Christine Lagarde said at a news conference after the meeting.
On April 22, Bank of England Governor Bailey and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will deliver the latest speeches, and investors still need to pay attention.
In addition to the above data and major events, investors also need to pay attention to the development of the epidemic and related news of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which are expected to have a certain impact on the market.
Monday (April 18) Keywords: China's first-quarter GDP, retail sales of consumer goods, Easter closed announcement
Next Monday, China will release GDP data for the first quarter of 2022. China's fourth-quarter GDP increased by 4% year-on-year, compared with the previous value of 4.9%.
Credit Suisse chief China economist Wang Yi predicts that China's GDP growth rate this year may reach 5.9%. It was the most optimistic number among economists surveyed by Bloomberg. His view is based on three foundations: first, the impact of lockdowns on production will be smaller than consumption; second, government and business investment will grow strongly; and third, housing investment will grow despite sluggish property sales because Existing projects still need to be completed. He said that the biggest domestic risk facing the Chinese economy right now is the lockdown, "but its impact is still unclear and cannot be fully incorporated into our forecast." Once the impact of the lockdown becomes clearer, he may revise the forecast to Close to 5.6%.
Due to the Easter holiday next Monday, investors need to pay attention to the announcement of the closure of major exchanges.
Tuesday (April 19) Keywords: U.S. housing starts in March, building permits in March, the Reserve Bank of Australia released the minutes of its monetary policy meeting
U.S. construction permits fell 10.8% month-on-month in February, compared with an expected decline of 7.2%, and a 10.4% increase in the previous value. In the United States, new housing starts were 1.421 million in February, compared with an expected 1.56 million and the previous value of 1.58 million.
U.S. housing starts rebounded to their highest level since 2006 in February, suggesting builders have had greater success in overcoming constraints on raw materials and labor.
The data showed that residential construction activity strengthened in February after weather factors and worker absenteeism due to mutant omicron strains weighed on construction activity in January. Still, builders are struggling to keep up with buyer demand in the face of volatile supply chains, high commodity prices and continued difficulty recruiting skilled workers.
The Reserve Bank of Australia kept the official cash rate (OCR) unchanged at 0.1% at its April interest rate meeting, but no longer mentioned "patient wait" on interest rate hikes in its post-meeting monetary policy statement. Boosted by the news, the Australian dollar rose to its highest level against the US dollar since July last year. Investors can learn more details from the RBA meeting minutes on April 19.
In addition, investors need to pay attention to the World Bank/IMF report on the world economic outlook and global financial stability, and St. Louis Fed President Bullard's speech on the US economy and monetary policy.
Wednesday (April 20) Keywords: U.S. API crude oil inventory changes for the week ended April 15, EIA crude oil inventory changes for the week ended April 15, U.S. March existing home sales
For the week ended April 8, U.S. API crude oil inventories rose by 7.8 million barrels, gasoline inventories fell by 5.1 million barrels, and distillate inventories fell by 5 million barrels.
According to data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), as of April 8, commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 9.382 million barrels to 421.8 million barrels, an increase of 2.3%, partly due to the release of crude oil from the national strategic reserve; gasoline inventories A decrease of 3.649 million barrels was the largest since the week of October 15, 2021; refined oil inventories decreased by 2.902 million barrels; strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) inventories decreased by 3.899 million barrels to 560.7 million barrels, a decrease of 0.69%.
According to data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), as of April 8, commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 9.382 million barrels to 421.8 million barrels, an increase of 2.3%, partly due to the release of crude oil from the national strategic reserve; gasoline inventories A decrease of 3.649 million barrels was the largest since the week of October 15, 2021; refined oil inventories decreased by 2.902 million barrels; strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) inventories decreased by 3.899 million barrels to 560.7 million barrels, a decrease of 0.69%. U.S. crude oil exports fell by 1.513 million barrels per day to 2.18 million barrels per day last week; commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves last week were 5.995 million barrels per day, a decrease of 305,000 barrels per day from the previous week.
According to the latest data released by the National Association of Realtors, the total number of existing home sales in the United States fell 7.2% year-on-year to 6.02 million units in February on a seasonally adjusted basis, compared with an expected 6.1 million units. The drop was much larger than expected, the biggest drop since February 2021.
Real estate experts widely expect trends similar to those of the past two years to continue this year - scarce inventory and strong demand will continue to push up home prices; while record home prices and rising mortgage rates will continue to erode home purchases affordability.
On April 20, investors will also need to pay attention to speeches from San Francisco Fed President Daly and Chicago Fed President Evans on the outlook for the U.S. economy.
Thursday (April 21) Keywords: U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ended April 16, the Federal Reserve announced the Beige Book of economic conditions
The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits rose to 185,000 in the week ended April 9, from 166,000 in the previous week and an expected 171,000. While data showed initial jobless claims rose slightly more than expected, they remained close to a 54-year low hit earlier this month. Initial jobless claims fell to the lowest level since 1968 at 167,000 the previous week. That compares with an average weekly increase of 218,000 jobless claims before the 2019 pandemic.
However, underlying trends in the jobless claims data suggest that the labor market still lacks sufficient labor supply to meet demand. As a result, labor costs for businesses in every industry are rising, causing inflation to soar further.
On April 21, the Federal Reserve will also announce the Beige Book of economic conditions, and investors also need to keep an eye on it.
Friday (April 22) Keywords: Manufacturing PMI of many European countries in April, Bank of England Governor Bailey and ECB President Lagarde speak
Manufacturing recovery in Europe and Asia slowed in March, mainly due to the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the introduction of economic sanctions by Western countries against Russia, which led to a deepening of global supply shortages and soaring production costs.
The euro zone's manufacturing PMI fell to a 14-month low in March, and while 56.5 was still well above the 50 dividing line between prosperity and decline, the data showed that the euro zone's two largest economies, Germany and France, both appeared to be struggling. Separately, the European Commission's Eurozone Economic Confidence Index fell to 108.5 in March from a downwardly revised 113.9 in February, while consumer confidence plummeted to -18.7 from -8.8.
As the epidemic continues, the manufacturing PMI of many countries in the euro zone is expected to remain unsatisfactory in April.
Bank of England Governor Bailey said recently that the shock from energy prices this year will be bigger than any year in the 1970s. Signs of a slowdown in growth and demand are starting to be seen, with pressure on demand affecting domestic inflation. Under the current circumstances, tightening the policy is appropriate.
The European Central Bank announced at its policy meeting that ended on April 14 that it would continue to keep three key interest rates unchanged, namely the main refinancing rate at 0%, the marginal lending rate at 0.25%, and the deposit rate at -0.50%. How the euro zone economy develops will depend critically on how the conflict evolves, the impact of current sanctions and possible further steps, ECB President Christine Lagarde said at a news conference after the meeting.
On April 22, Bank of England Governor Bailey and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will deliver the latest speeches, and investors still need to pay attention.
In addition to the above data and major events, investors also need to pay attention to the development of the epidemic and related news of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which are expected to have a certain impact on the market.
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