We recently noticed that some third-party companies and individuals impersonated the TOPONE Markets brand and illegally misappropriated our trademarks.

We Hereby Reiterate Our Statement:

  • TOPONE Markets does not provide discretionary account operation trading services, nor does it cooperate with other third-party vendors and/ or agents to provide such services.
  • TOPONE Markets staff will not promise to our customer the definite profit, please do not trust any kind of the profit promise or profit related picture, such as screenshot/ chat history, etc, all investment profit can be only viewed on our official website and application.
  • TOPONE Markets is a professional online trading platform with low spreads and zero handling fees. Be wary of any behavior that asks you for any fees directly and privately. TOPONE Markets does not charge a fee at any stage of its trading process or other fee.

If you have any questions or concerns, please feel free to reach us by clicking the "Online Customer Support" or send an email to our customer care team cs@top1markets.com. We will answer your questions and assist you promptly.

Understood
We use cookies to learn more about how you use our website and what we can improve. Continue to use our website by clicking "Accept". Details
Market News Foreign exchange trading reminder on September 17: Unexpected retail growth boosted expectations for reductions, dollar and U.S. Treasury yields rose

Foreign exchange trading reminder on September 17: Unexpected retail growth boosted expectations for reductions, dollar and U.S. Treasury yields rose

The US dollar exchange rate index rose to a two-week high on September 16, as unexpected growth in US retail sales boosted the Fed’s expectations of reducing bond purchases, and US bond yields also rose. The implied volatility of the dollar is still at a high level due to the FOMC meeting next week.

Eden
2021-09-17
12070

On Thursday (September 16), the U.S. dollar index rose by 0.52% to the highest level since August 27, the largest increase in the past month. The unexpected increase in retail sales in the United States in August has partially alleviated the sharp slowdown in economic growth. Worries. Retail sales in the United States increased by 0.7% in August, and the market is expected to decline by 0.7%; the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Business Survey is also better than expected; the number of first-time jobless claims is close to the estimate.

Bipan Rai, head of North American foreign exchange strategy, Capital Markets, Imperial Bank of Canada, said that if you look at retail sales data, even if it is revised, it is quite profitable. Therefore, we see that the US dollar benefits from it, especially against the euro, Swiss franc and Japanese yen. Waiting for financing currency. This news may boost investors’ expectations for the Fed’s policy meeting next week and how soon the Fed will begin to reduce stimulus measures. It feels like all the lingering worries about the basic economy have diminished. Therefore, when we set our sights on the Fed meeting next week, the evidence supports the idea that the Fed will signal a reduction at the meeting.

The euro to US dollar fell 0.6% to 1.1750, affected by systematic selling and hedging capital flows; European traders noticed solid buying near 1.1740-50. The British "Financial Times" reported that the European Central Bank's unpublished inflation expectations indicated an earlier potential rate hike, which led to the euro's reduction in decline.

The dollar against the yen rose 0.4% to 109.83, driven by short-covering and pattern buying above 109.50, and the gains were constrained by selling pressure near the 100-day moving average.

The pound fell 0.33% to 1.3795 against the US dollar; the US dollar rose 0.42% to 1.2683 against the Canadian dollar, after the previously announced weak housing and wholesale trade data in Canada. The Australian dollar fell 0.56% to 0.7292 against the US dollar. Earlier in the market, data showed that the unemployment rate in Australia unexpectedly dropped to 4.5%, but the Bureau of Statistics said that this change reflects a decline in the labor force participation rate, rather than a strong labor market.

Friday preview


timeareaindexThe former valuePredictive value
14:00U.KMonthly retail sales rate after seasonal adjustment in August (%)-2.50.5
14:00U.KCore retail sales monthly rate after August seasonal adjustment (%)-2.40.8
17:00EurozoneFinal value of CPI annual rate without seasonal adjustment in August (%)3
17:00EurozoneFinal value of core CPI annual rate without seasonal adjustment in August (%)1.61.6
22:00AmericaSeptember University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index Initial Value70.372
01:00 AMAmericaThe total number of wells drilled in the United States for the week ending September 17 (ports)503503
01:00 AMAmericaThe total number of oil rigs (mouth) in the week ending September 17401403



Summary of Institutional Views


Wells Fargo: The U.S. dollar is more likely to strengthen rather than fall in the next few months


Wells Fargo strategist Erik Nelson said that in the next 3-6 months, the probability of the dollar rising 5% or more is greater than a similar decline. Nelson wrote that the possibility of the Fed's accidental eagle is much higher than that of the European Central Bank, which means that the interest rate differential between the United States and Europe has widened. Accordingly, the U.S. dollar is more likely to rise than fall in the next few months. This view is based on Nelson's assumption that monetary policy and short-term interest rate differentials are currently the most important driving factors in the foreign exchange market.

Nelson wrote that either the Fed's accidental dove, or the European Central Bank's accidental eagle, could make the U.S. dollar fall by 5% or more. We expect that the possibility of the ECB's unexpected hawks in the next six months and materially affecting the ECB's interest rate expectations (for example, 25-50 basis points) is very slim. If the US inflation or employment data is significantly lower than expected, the Fed may be unexpectedly biased, but the US short-term interest rate is close to zero, which means that the upside may be greater than the downside; it also said that if the foreign exchange market starts to pay attention to the monetary policy External driving factors may subvert the above view; even so, we suspect that any other factor is unlikely to push the balance of risks to the point where the dollar plummets rather than rises.

Royal Bank of Canada: The Bank of England is expected to stand still next week


Despite the strengthening job market and rising inflation, the Bank of England may maintain monetary policy unchanged next week. Previously, the Bank of Canada currently expects the Bank of England to raise interest rates twice in 2022, 15 basis points to 0.25% at the May 2022 meeting, and 25 basis points to 0.5% at the November 2022 meeting. Analysts said that this change was driven by the rapid improvement in the labor market. Because although the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England is still more convinced that commodity price inflation will be temporary as the supply and demand mismatch problem is resolved, it is not certain whether this will be the case in the labor market.

Westpac: It is advisable to buy the Australian dollar against the US dollar on dips


Westpac believes that because the mining dividend conversion has ended and the U.S. dollar may remain resilient during the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the risk of the Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar testing the 0.7200/50 support downward still exists. From a monthly perspective, this is still a good buying opportunity; the Reserve Bank of Australia has no intention to do anything beneficial for the Australian dollar. Chairman Lowe strongly opposes the market’s pricing of interest rate hikes at the end of 2022 and 2023. If, as the Reserve Bank of Australia believes, The cash interest rate at the end of 2023 is still 0.1%. Australia’s domestic data is a bit mixed. Resilient business and consumer confidence support people’s expectations that as long as New South Wales and Victoria finally relax their restrictions on the new crown epidemic, the economy will It rebounded sharply, but working hours fell by 3.7% in August and jobs fell by 146,000, which was the worst month since May 2020. Australia’s growth prospects in 2022 are still very optimistic, but even in October in the short term The speed of reopening will also trigger a fierce battle when the vaccination target is started.

Previous
Next

Bonus rebate to help investors grow in the trading world!

Need Assistance?

7×24 H

Download the APP for Free