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Market News Foreign exchange trading reminder on November 26: The U.S. dollar fell from a 16-month high, and the Swedish Krona strengthened
Foreign exchange trading reminder on November 26: The U.S. dollar fell from a 16-month high, and the Swedish Krona strengthened
The U.S. dollar fell slightly on November 25. It has risen by about 2.7% so far this month. It hit a 16-month high on Wednesday. The previously announced minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting prompted the market to expect the Fed to raise interest rates earlier than other major central banks. The Riksbank announced on Thursday that it would maintain its policy unchanged, and the Swedish Krona strengthened slightly. During the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States, CME's foreign exchange contract transactions ended ahead of schedule at 02:15 on the 27th, GMT+8
2021-11-26
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On Thursday (November 25), the U.S. dollar index fell 0.08% to 96.78. The U.S. dollar has risen this month. Investors prefer hawkish central bank national currencies and dominate the currency market; many include Fibonacci retracements. This technical pattern supports the basic factors that helped the dollar strengthen.
The minutes of the Fed’s policy meeting on November 2-3 showed that the Fed’s concerns about rising inflation have increased. Many officials said that if inflation remains high, they are open to speeding up the end of the bond purchase plan and speeding up the pace of interest rate hikes.
Data released on Wednesday showed that the number of initial jobless claims in the United States fell to the lowest in 52 years last week, consumer spending rose more than expected in October, and inflation rose.
ANZ Bank strategists John Bromhead and Daniel Been stated in a client report that the U.S. dollar dominates the G10 currency. With the Thanksgiving holiday approaching, we believe that a period of strategic consolidation may be ushered in.
The ING currency strategist team wrote in the client report that the Fed is more hawkish and the fourth wave of epidemics in Europe makes the US dollar index look very attractive.
The dollar fell 0.06% to 115.36 against the yen, close to a five-year high. The dollar rose 0.15% to 0.9359 against the Swiss franc.
The euro rebounded slightly against the US dollar, rising 0.09% to 1.1209. However, the euro still fell by about 3% this month. Expectations that the European Central Bank may be more dovish than the Fed, and the recent resurgence of a new wave of new crown epidemics in Europe have suppressed the euro.
A survey on Thursday showed that the surge in new crown cases in Germany and the unusually high inflation rate are dragging down consumer confidence in Europe’s largest economy and inhibiting the business prospects of the upcoming Christmas shopping season.
The Riksbank announced on Thursday that it will maintain its policy unchanged, believing that the current inflation rate above the target will fall back next year, and expects to raise interest rates for the first time since the new crown epidemic at the end of 2024. The Swedish Krona strengthened slightly, rising about 0.46% against the U.S. dollar to 9.0876; against the Euro, it rose 0.4% to 10.1780, but it is still expected to record its worst monthly performance against the Euro since March 2020.
Seen as an approximate indicator of liquidity that reflects risk appetite, the Australian dollar stabilized at US$0.7189; the New Zealand dollar fell 0.25% against the US dollar to trade at 0.6858, hovering near the three-month low of US$0.6856 set the day before, when the Reserve Bank of New Zealand set the indicator The 25 basis point increase in interest rates disappointed the bulls who wanted the central bank to raise interest rates by 50 basis points.
07:30 Japan announces November Tokyo CPI
16:00 Switzerland announces third quarter GDP
16:00 European Central Bank President Lagarde delivered a speech at the central bank's 2021 legal meeting. US stocks, CME and ICE some contract transactions closed early
Goldman Sachs Group economists said that as inflationary pressures are rising, the Fed is expected to tighten monetary policy sooner than previously expected next year. Goldman Sachs economists such as Jan Hatzius told clients in a report on Thursday that the Fed will double the reduction of its large-scale asset purchase plan to $30 billion per month starting from January next year, and will start to reduce interest rates from zero in June. Increase nearby. They stated that the Fed will subsequently raise interest rates in September and December, and raise interest rates twice in 2023. They previously expected to raise interest rates in July and November.
According to Goldman Sachs' new forecast scenario, the Fed will end its asset purchase program in mid-March. They stated that the Fed "has a realistic possibility" to raise interest rates starting in May, and then further raise interest rates in July and November.
Fed Vice Chairman Rich Clarida and San Francisco Fed Chairman Mary Daly have both expressed in recent days that they are open to accelerating downsizing. Data released this week show that consumer spending is strong, the labor market is tight, and the inflation rate has reached its highest level in three decades.
Hatzius et al. wrote in the report that the increasing openness towards accelerating the pace of downsizing may reflect that the inflation rate in the past two months has been slightly higher than expected, and that Fed officials feel that accelerated downsizing will not impact financial markets. rest assured.
The euro against the US dollar EUR/USD fell to 1.1185 overnight, the lowest level since June 2020. The increase in new cases of new coronary pneumonia in the euro area and the escalation of restrictions in the core area of the euro area have affected market optimism and dragged down the euro. Earlier, European Central Bank Vice President Jindos said that the European Central Bank’s December meeting and forecast may indicate that the economy is improving, and supply-driven price increases may be structural, and even materially change the December discussions. The negative effects of the fundamentals of the Eurozone are more favorable than the European Central Bank. Therefore, unless the interest rate gap between Europe and the United States narrows, the Europe and the United States are likely to drop to 1.1000-1.050.
The euro against the U.S. dollar EUR/USD once fell below the 1.12 level on Wednesday. The recent correction of the U.S. dollar has increased the possibility of a rebound in Europe and the United States. The US dollar continues to be bullish in the medium term, but the current market is too crowded to trade long US dollars and short Euros, and there is still a possibility of a short-term recovery of the euro against the US dollar. From a technical point of view, the euro against the dollar is expected to rebound to the 1.15 area, but it continues to be subject to the downward trend established since the beginning of June. The potential market may be triggered by the next round of US data, including the non-agricultural employment data on December 3 and the Fed's guidance in December.
The minutes of the Fed’s policy meeting on November 2-3 showed that the Fed’s concerns about rising inflation have increased. Many officials said that if inflation remains high, they are open to speeding up the end of the bond purchase plan and speeding up the pace of interest rate hikes.
Data released on Wednesday showed that the number of initial jobless claims in the United States fell to the lowest in 52 years last week, consumer spending rose more than expected in October, and inflation rose.
ANZ Bank strategists John Bromhead and Daniel Been stated in a client report that the U.S. dollar dominates the G10 currency. With the Thanksgiving holiday approaching, we believe that a period of strategic consolidation may be ushered in.
The ING currency strategist team wrote in the client report that the Fed is more hawkish and the fourth wave of epidemics in Europe makes the US dollar index look very attractive.
The dollar fell 0.06% to 115.36 against the yen, close to a five-year high. The dollar rose 0.15% to 0.9359 against the Swiss franc.
The euro rebounded slightly against the US dollar, rising 0.09% to 1.1209. However, the euro still fell by about 3% this month. Expectations that the European Central Bank may be more dovish than the Fed, and the recent resurgence of a new wave of new crown epidemics in Europe have suppressed the euro.
A survey on Thursday showed that the surge in new crown cases in Germany and the unusually high inflation rate are dragging down consumer confidence in Europe’s largest economy and inhibiting the business prospects of the upcoming Christmas shopping season.
The Riksbank announced on Thursday that it will maintain its policy unchanged, believing that the current inflation rate above the target will fall back next year, and expects to raise interest rates for the first time since the new crown epidemic at the end of 2024. The Swedish Krona strengthened slightly, rising about 0.46% against the U.S. dollar to 9.0876; against the Euro, it rose 0.4% to 10.1780, but it is still expected to record its worst monthly performance against the Euro since March 2020.
Seen as an approximate indicator of liquidity that reflects risk appetite, the Australian dollar stabilized at US$0.7189; the New Zealand dollar fell 0.25% against the US dollar to trade at 0.6858, hovering near the three-month low of US$0.6856 set the day before, when the Reserve Bank of New Zealand set the indicator The 25 basis point increase in interest rates disappointed the bulls who wanted the central bank to raise interest rates by 50 basis points.
Friday preview
07:30 Japan announces November Tokyo CPI
16:00 Switzerland announces third quarter GDP
16:00 European Central Bank President Lagarde delivered a speech at the central bank's 2021 legal meeting. US stocks, CME and ICE some contract transactions closed early
Summary of Institutional Views
Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to cut and raise interest rates at a faster rate due to inflationary pressures
Goldman Sachs Group economists said that as inflationary pressures are rising, the Fed is expected to tighten monetary policy sooner than previously expected next year. Goldman Sachs economists such as Jan Hatzius told clients in a report on Thursday that the Fed will double the reduction of its large-scale asset purchase plan to $30 billion per month starting from January next year, and will start to reduce interest rates from zero in June. Increase nearby. They stated that the Fed will subsequently raise interest rates in September and December, and raise interest rates twice in 2023. They previously expected to raise interest rates in July and November.
According to Goldman Sachs' new forecast scenario, the Fed will end its asset purchase program in mid-March. They stated that the Fed "has a realistic possibility" to raise interest rates starting in May, and then further raise interest rates in July and November.
Fed Vice Chairman Rich Clarida and San Francisco Fed Chairman Mary Daly have both expressed in recent days that they are open to accelerating downsizing. Data released this week show that consumer spending is strong, the labor market is tight, and the inflation rate has reached its highest level in three decades.
Hatzius et al. wrote in the report that the increasing openness towards accelerating the pace of downsizing may reflect that the inflation rate in the past two months has been slightly higher than expected, and that Fed officials feel that accelerated downsizing will not impact financial markets. rest assured.
Westpac: Europe and the United States may drop 1.1000-1.050
The euro against the US dollar EUR/USD fell to 1.1185 overnight, the lowest level since June 2020. The increase in new cases of new coronary pneumonia in the euro area and the escalation of restrictions in the core area of the euro area have affected market optimism and dragged down the euro. Earlier, European Central Bank Vice President Jindos said that the European Central Bank’s December meeting and forecast may indicate that the economy is improving, and supply-driven price increases may be structural, and even materially change the December discussions. The negative effects of the fundamentals of the Eurozone are more favorable than the European Central Bank. Therefore, unless the interest rate gap between Europe and the United States narrows, the Europe and the United States are likely to drop to 1.1000-1.050.
Rabobank: Europe and the United States are expected to rise to the 1.15 level
The euro against the U.S. dollar EUR/USD once fell below the 1.12 level on Wednesday. The recent correction of the U.S. dollar has increased the possibility of a rebound in Europe and the United States. The US dollar continues to be bullish in the medium term, but the current market is too crowded to trade long US dollars and short Euros, and there is still a possibility of a short-term recovery of the euro against the US dollar. From a technical point of view, the euro against the dollar is expected to rebound to the 1.15 area, but it continues to be subject to the downward trend established since the beginning of June. The potential market may be triggered by the next round of US data, including the non-agricultural employment data on December 3 and the Fed's guidance in December.
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