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Market News Foreign exchange trading reminder on November 19: The U.S. dollar fell for two consecutive days, and the Swiss franc fell against the euro from a six-year high
Foreign exchange trading reminder on November 19: The U.S. dollar fell for two consecutive days, and the Swiss franc fell against the euro from a six-year high
The U.S. dollar weakened for the second consecutive trading day on November 18th. Traders assessed whether the U.S. dollar's recent gains have gone too far. Recently, when global inflation has soared, the expectations of central banks for tightening policies have diverged, driving the U.S. dollar to rise sharply. . As the external European debt rose, short-covering pushed the euro to an intraday high, and the euro rose 0.5% to 1.1374 against the dollar. The Swiss franc fell against the euro after reaching its strongest level in more than six years.
2021-11-19
9739
On Thursday (November 18), the U.S. dollar index fell 0.26% in late trading to 95.54; U.S. Treasury yields were mixed; earlier, data released by the United States showed that the number of people claiming unemployment benefits for the first time last week exceeded expectations; U.S. data shows that the October inflation rate hit the highest since 1990, and retail sales data exceeded estimates, making the market expect the Fed to raise interest rates faster than expected, pushing the dollar to strengthen.
Wells Fargo Securities currency market strategist Erik Nelson said that the US dollar has gone out of a big market in the past few weeks, and I think we are now taking a breather.
Boris Schlossberg, managing director of foreign exchange strategy at BK Asset Management, said that the U.S. dollar has risen across the board, and now the market will take a step back and assess whether the inflation theme really continues at the rate everyone believes. If this is true, then nothing can stop it. , But I think that if the data starts to cool slightly afterwards, you will definitely see a full correction of the dollar.
The euro was 0.46% against the US dollar to 1.1371, rebounding from a 16-month low below US$1.13 touched on Wednesday. The pound rose 0.05% against the US dollar and fluctuated throughout the day. Prior to this, the UK inflation rate surged in October, which put pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates at its policy meeting next month.
Adam Cole of Royal Bank of Canada holds a "mid-term negative view" on the pound. Cole said that in the context of rising interest rates, the pound has not performed well. I think this may be a sign that the credibility of the UK policy is questionable.
Commodity-related currencies rebounded along with oil prices, which had previously fallen to a six-week low. The U.S. dollar fell 0.06% to 1.2602 against the Canadian dollar. It rose 0.3% to 1.2647 before, which was the highest in about six weeks. The market expects the Bank of Canada to start raising interest rates early next year. The US dollar against the Norwegian Krone rose by 1.05% to 8.8394 in intraday trading, the highest since the end of August.
The Australian dollar also deviated from the six-week low of 0.7251 against the US dollar and rose 0.16% to 0.72765 in late trading; the New Zealand dollar rose 0.55% to the US dollar to 0.7036 US dollars. Previously, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand survey showed that the short-term inflation rate is expected to rise in the fourth quarter.
The euro against the Swiss franc rose 0.15% to 1.0523; earlier it fell 0.1% to 1.04985, the lowest since July 2015. The consolidation of the risk reversal this week shows that there may not be a big follow-up market after breaking through the 1.05 key level. However, if the Swiss franc breaks through 1.05 euros again, it may trigger intervention by the Swiss National Bank. The Swiss National Bank’s policy is to buy foreign exchange when necessary to ensure that the monetary environment remains adequate.
The Turkish lira continued to fall by 2.83% after the country’s central bank cut interest rates by 100 basis points to 15%, despite the country’s inflation rate close to 20%. Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda, said. Lira is still a punching bag, and there is no end in sight to further weakness.
23:45 Fed Governor Waller delivered a speech on the economic outlook 01:15 AM Fed Vice Chairman Clarida delivered a speech 02:00 European Central Bank President Lagarde delivered a speech
HSBC research shows that even if the inflation rate hits a record, it will not prevent the European Central Bank from continuing to maintain its ultra-loose stance. Senior economist Fabio Balboni and others expect the euro zone inflation rate to hit a historic high of 4.5% this month, while the central bank is preparing to make plans for the stimulus plan. If inflation is high in November, European Central Bank President Lagarde may not be able to insist on the view that inflation is temporary. The European Central Bank is not expected to take the current surge in inflation at heart, and will announce further support for 2022 in December. Quantitative easing of the year.
Goldman Sachs global fixed income portfolio manager Hugh Briscoe said that the labor shortage caused by Brexit may mean that the Bank of England will raise interest rates before other major banks. It is shorting British government bonds. The Bank of England is expected to raise interest rates by about 15 basis points in December, raising the benchmark interest rate to 0.25%, and then raising interest rates two more times in June 2022. The pound is also at risk of depreciation. The increasingly tense trade relationship between the United Kingdom and the European Union complicates the outlook.
Wells Fargo Securities currency market strategist Erik Nelson said that the US dollar has gone out of a big market in the past few weeks, and I think we are now taking a breather.
Boris Schlossberg, managing director of foreign exchange strategy at BK Asset Management, said that the U.S. dollar has risen across the board, and now the market will take a step back and assess whether the inflation theme really continues at the rate everyone believes. If this is true, then nothing can stop it. , But I think that if the data starts to cool slightly afterwards, you will definitely see a full correction of the dollar.
The euro was 0.46% against the US dollar to 1.1371, rebounding from a 16-month low below US$1.13 touched on Wednesday. The pound rose 0.05% against the US dollar and fluctuated throughout the day. Prior to this, the UK inflation rate surged in October, which put pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates at its policy meeting next month.
Adam Cole of Royal Bank of Canada holds a "mid-term negative view" on the pound. Cole said that in the context of rising interest rates, the pound has not performed well. I think this may be a sign that the credibility of the UK policy is questionable.
Commodity-related currencies rebounded along with oil prices, which had previously fallen to a six-week low. The U.S. dollar fell 0.06% to 1.2602 against the Canadian dollar. It rose 0.3% to 1.2647 before, which was the highest in about six weeks. The market expects the Bank of Canada to start raising interest rates early next year. The US dollar against the Norwegian Krone rose by 1.05% to 8.8394 in intraday trading, the highest since the end of August.
The Australian dollar also deviated from the six-week low of 0.7251 against the US dollar and rose 0.16% to 0.72765 in late trading; the New Zealand dollar rose 0.55% to the US dollar to 0.7036 US dollars. Previously, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand survey showed that the short-term inflation rate is expected to rise in the fourth quarter.
The euro against the Swiss franc rose 0.15% to 1.0523; earlier it fell 0.1% to 1.04985, the lowest since July 2015. The consolidation of the risk reversal this week shows that there may not be a big follow-up market after breaking through the 1.05 key level. However, if the Swiss franc breaks through 1.05 euros again, it may trigger intervention by the Swiss National Bank. The Swiss National Bank’s policy is to buy foreign exchange when necessary to ensure that the monetary environment remains adequate.
The Turkish lira continued to fall by 2.83% after the country’s central bank cut interest rates by 100 basis points to 15%, despite the country’s inflation rate close to 20%. Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda, said. Lira is still a punching bag, and there is no end in sight to further weakness.
Friday preview
| time | area | index | The former value | Predictive value |
| 07:30 | Japan | National CPI annual rate in October (%) | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| 07:30 | Japan | National core CPI annual rate in October (%) | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 07:30 | Japan | National core-core CPI annual rate in October (%) | -0.4 | |
| 08:01 | U.K | November Gfk Consumer Confidence Index | -17 | -18 |
| 15:00 | U.K | Monthly retail sales rate after seasonal adjustment in October (%) | -0.2 | 0.5 |
| 15:00 | U.K | Monthly core retail sales rate after seasonal adjustment in October (%) | -0.6 | 0.6 |
| 21:30 | Canada | Monthly retail sales rate in September (%) | 2.1 | -1.7 |
| 21:30 | Canada | September core retail sales monthly rate (%) | 2.8 | -1 |
| 02:00 AM | America | The total number of wells drilled in the United States for the week ending November 19 (mouth) | 556 | 563 |
| 02:00 AM | America | The total number of oil rigs (mouth) in the week ending November 19 | 454 | 460 |
23:45 Fed Governor Waller delivered a speech on the economic outlook 01:15 AM Fed Vice Chairman Clarida delivered a speech 02:00 European Central Bank President Lagarde delivered a speech
Summary of Institutional Views
HSBC: Although the inflation rate is expected to hit a record, the European Central Bank is expected to stick to its easing stance
HSBC research shows that even if the inflation rate hits a record, it will not prevent the European Central Bank from continuing to maintain its ultra-loose stance. Senior economist Fabio Balboni and others expect the euro zone inflation rate to hit a historic high of 4.5% this month, while the central bank is preparing to make plans for the stimulus plan. If inflation is high in November, European Central Bank President Lagarde may not be able to insist on the view that inflation is temporary. The European Central Bank is not expected to take the current surge in inflation at heart, and will announce further support for 2022 in December. Quantitative easing of the year.
Goldman Sachs: It is expected that Brexit will make the Bank of England the first mover of interest rates
Goldman Sachs global fixed income portfolio manager Hugh Briscoe said that the labor shortage caused by Brexit may mean that the Bank of England will raise interest rates before other major banks. It is shorting British government bonds. The Bank of England is expected to raise interest rates by about 15 basis points in December, raising the benchmark interest rate to 0.25%, and then raising interest rates two more times in June 2022. The pound is also at risk of depreciation. The increasingly tense trade relationship between the United Kingdom and the European Union complicates the outlook.
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