English
Market News Financial breakfast on May 21: The dollar rebounded, gold rose for the first week in five weeks, and U.S. stocks reversed in a V-shaped manner from the brink of a bear market
Financial breakfast on May 21: The dollar rebounded, gold rose for the first week in five weeks, and U.S. stocks reversed in a V-shaped manner from the brink of a bear market
The U.S. dollar index rose slightly on May 20, and the sharp rebound in U.S. stocks in late trading pushed the S&P 500 out of the brink of a bear market, but the index still fell for the seventh week in a row, setting a record for the longest losing streak since 2001. Investors are concerned about the Fed’s measures to suppress inflation The possible jitters over the economic fallout have soured risk sentiment on Wall Street. Spot gold rose 1.86% for the week, its first weekly gain in five, as concerns over economic growth persisted and the dollar fell this week. Oil prices were higher, with the refined product market remaining tight amid strong demand, overshadowing fears of an economic slowdown.
2022-05-21
8945
The U.S. dollar index rose on Friday (May 20) and U.S. Treasury yields fell as investors bought safe-haven assets as U.S. stocks tumbled into a bear market, but the dollar's gains today were not enough to erase earlier this week's gains. The sharp declines earlier in the week took the dollar off a five-year high on concerns that the greenback’s months-long rally may have been overdone. Spot gold rose more than $30 this week, its first weekly gain since mid-April, as growing concerns about economic growth and high inflation boosted demand for the safe-haven asset. U.S. oil edged higher, closing above the 110 mark in late trade, as the European Union planned to impose an oil embargo on Russia and eased restrictions on the new crown epidemic in some regions, alleviating concerns that slowing economic growth would affect demand.
In terms of commodities closing, COMEX June gold futures closed flat at $1,842.10 an ounce, up 1.8% this week, ending a four-week losing streak before ending. June WTI rose $1.02 to settle at $113.23; July WTI with more active trading and more open positions rose 39 cents to settle at $110.28; July Brent rose 51 cents to settle Prices were quoted at $112.55 a barrel.
U.S. stocks closed: The S&P 500 was basically flat at 3901.36 points; the Dow Jones Industrial Average was basically flat at 31261.9 points; the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.3% to 11354.62; the Nasdaq 100 fell 0.3%, At 11,835.62; the Russell 2000 fell 0.2% to 1,773.266.
U.S. stocks closed basically flat, and a sharp rebound in late trading pushed the S&P 500 out of the brink of a bear market, but the index still fell for the seventh week in a row, setting a record for the longest losing streak since 2001; earlier it fell from its January closing high Over 20%, meeting the usual definition of a bear market.
The monthly expiry of options tied to stocks and ETFs added to price volatility as another week of volatile trading ended. Safe-haven buying drives U.S. Treasuries higher with dollar
This week has been marked by buying the dips and selling the rallies, as investors worry about a slowing economy and further monetary policy tightening, while retailers signal that high inflation is taking its toll on profit margins and consumer spending. .
?
The S&P 500's seven-week losing streak is the longest losing streak since the dotcom bubble burst more than two decades ago. According to Bespoke Investment Group, this is only the fourth time it has fallen for seven weeks or more since World War II. That's a small sample size, but no such move has occurred during a particularly positive period for the stock market, the company's strategists said in a note, rooted in a hawkish FOMC stance and heightened fears of a recession.
Spot gold rose slightly on Friday to close at $1,845.46 an ounce, up 1.86% this week, recording its first weekly gain in five, as concerns over economic growth continued and the dollar fell this week.
Safe-haven gold was supported by a slide in U.S. Treasury yields, which fell for a third straight session as investors remained concerned about growing signs of an economic slowdown.
Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures, said the dollar's pullback this week helped gold rise. In addition, as soon as the price of gold fell below the $1785 mark, bargain hunters entered the market, which provided moderate support.
Weak economic data, including a larger-than-expected number of U.S. initial jobless claims, underscored risks to growth as the Federal Reserve embarks on its most aggressive rate hike cycle in decades. Fears of a potential recession have investors flocking to gold-backed ETFs. ETF holdings recovered on Thursday from their lowest level since March, according to preliminary data compiled by Bloomberg.
TD Securities commodity strategist Ryan McKay and others said in the report that weak economic data has brought much-needed support to precious metal prices, however, they said that a sustained rebound in gold prices may face a relatively high threshold, downtrend and all precious metals The prevailing negative sentiment remains unbreakable.
Oil prices closed slightly higher on Friday, with U.S. crude up 0.42% late at $110.36 a barrel, as the European Union plans to impose an oil embargo on Russia, and some regions ease the lockdown of the new crown epidemic. The refined oil market remains tense, easing the slowdown in economic growth. The slowdown will affect demand concerns.
Rising demand for auto fuel and falling inventories ahead of the summer driving season underscores tight supply fundamentals, even as broader economic concerns rattled stocks. Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Management, said there is still a disconnect between the risky financial markets related to crude oil financial assets and the physical market trying to digest the release of strategic oil reserves to meet demand, which has left the market fragmented and volatile. , could end up being a brutal summer for energy traders.
Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at OANDA, said risks remain skewed to the upside, given the reopening of some regions and continued efforts by the European Union to impose an oil embargo on Russia.
The European Union hopes to reach an agreement on a proposal to ban imports of Russian crude, including solutions for exceptions in countries most reliant on Russian oil, such as Hungary.
In the U.S., U.S. energy companies added oil and gas rigs for the ninth straight week this week, as most small producers grappled with high oil prices and boosted output amid a government push, according to Baker Hughes statistics. The rig count is an indicator of future production growth.
The dollar index was last up 0.16% at 103.04, while the 10-year Treasury yield fell 5 basis points to 2.783%; however, the dollar index was still down 1.4% for the week on concerns that the dollar's months-long rally may have been overdone. The Swiss franc posted a weekly gain of 2.75% against the dollar, its biggest weekly gain in more than two years, while the yen posted a weekly gain of more than 1% against the dollar.
JPMorgan strategist Meera Chandan and others wrote in a research note that slowing U.S. growth momentum would not challenge our bullish stance on the dollar relative to high-beta currencies, but a stronger case, saying whether the dollar should continue to run Winning against other reserve currencies remains an issue; the team is short EUR/USD.
The greenback has been supported by investors seeking safety in recent months as markets tumbled across markets amid fears of soaring inflation, a hawkish Federal Reserve and the fallout from the Russia-Ukraine conflict. That rally came to an abrupt end this week, however, as heightened volatility in global financial markets and the dollar's rise to highs in recent months prompted investors to turn to safe-haven currencies such as the yen and Swiss franc.
Jonas Goltermann of Capital Economics said in a note that it is time for the dollar to take a breather after its recent surge.
"We're definitely seeing the dollar a little bit higher, and there's room for other currencies to rise as well, as the outlook gradually improves if the global economy comes out of the woods and recovers from a poor first half," said Juan Perez, head of trading at Monex USA.
The euro fell as much as 0.5% to $1.0533 against the dollar at one point; its losses pared losses and was last at $1.0558.
The dollar pared gains against the yen, up 0.1 percent to 127.92, with Yoshio Sakakihara, a professor at Aoyama Gakuin University in Japan, saying the yen will trade between 140 and 150 by the end of this year.
GBP/USD pared gains to 0.19%, after rising as much as 0.3% to 1.2500; GBP/USD gained 1.94% for the week, its biggest weekly gain since December 2020, as the latest economic data suggested the market may not need a sharp Lowered expectations for a rate hike by the Bank of England.
Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill warned that price pressures were "substantial" and further rate hikes were needed. British consumer confidence fell to its lowest level in at least 48 years as higher prices dampened consumers' spending power.
The greenback was up 0.07% at 1.2831 against the Canadian dollar, after falling as much as 0.4% in the session as Canadian dollar bulls cut positions.
[St. Louis Fed President Bullard: The market has started to re-price, especially because of the Fed (tightening monetary policy). The FOMC must regain control of US inflation, and the Fed has a good plan. For now, a single 50bps rate hike is still a good plan, and one has to keep an eye on the economic data. There should be a way to get the federal funds rate to 3.50% by the end of 2022. I don't think there's going to be a recession in the US in 2022, and that's not going to be my base assumption for 2023. Unemployment is expected to continue to decline]
[Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda Haruhiko: The Bank of Japan will continue to implement the current monetary policy. Russia's actions caused severe inflation. Still think Japan's inflation is unsustainable]
[Front page of Securities Times: LPR welcomes structural "interest rate cuts", which is good for medium- and long-term loan cost reductions] Unlike the previous LPR downturns, the latest LPR downturn on May 20 was only down for products with a maturity of more than 5 years. Lowering the LPR for a term of more than 5 years can reduce the cost of medium and long-term loans and improve the demand for medium and long-term loans. Compared with the 1-year LPR adjustment, which mainly affects liquidity loans, the reduction of the LPR for more than 5 years has a greater coverage of reducing the financing cost of the whole society, especially for individuals who are burdened with mortgage loans, which will directly reduce the monthly repayment required. mortgage interest. According to estimates, based on the loan amount of 1 million yuan, the term of 30 years, and the equal principal and interest repayment, the LPR for more than 5 years is reduced, the average monthly monthly payment can be reduced by nearly 89 yuan, and the total interest to be repaid is reduced by more than 30,000 yuan. .
[Intensive research by institutions, aiming at the layout of three major sectors] Since May, the A-share market has gradually stabilized and rebounded, market confidence has recovered, and the number of institutional research has increased significantly. In terms of fields, electronics, industrial machinery, and pharmaceutical and biological sectors are the focus of institutional research. The data shows that as of May 20, a total of 1,439 companies have been surveyed by institutions since May, while only 653 companies have been surveyed by institutions in the same period last month (April 1-20), a month-on-month increase of 120%. Industry insiders said that A shares are expected to usher in a wave of rebound. Now is a good time to optimize the investment portfolio, so institutions are actively conducting research, looking for more high-quality targets, and at the same time conducting research and verification on the existing portfolio targets. (China Securities Journal)
In terms of commodities closing, COMEX June gold futures closed flat at $1,842.10 an ounce, up 1.8% this week, ending a four-week losing streak before ending. June WTI rose $1.02 to settle at $113.23; July WTI with more active trading and more open positions rose 39 cents to settle at $110.28; July Brent rose 51 cents to settle Prices were quoted at $112.55 a barrel.
U.S. stocks closed: The S&P 500 was basically flat at 3901.36 points; the Dow Jones Industrial Average was basically flat at 31261.9 points; the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.3% to 11354.62; the Nasdaq 100 fell 0.3%, At 11,835.62; the Russell 2000 fell 0.2% to 1,773.266.
List of major global market conditions
U.S. stocks closed basically flat, and a sharp rebound in late trading pushed the S&P 500 out of the brink of a bear market, but the index still fell for the seventh week in a row, setting a record for the longest losing streak since 2001; earlier it fell from its January closing high Over 20%, meeting the usual definition of a bear market.
The monthly expiry of options tied to stocks and ETFs added to price volatility as another week of volatile trading ended. Safe-haven buying drives U.S. Treasuries higher with dollar
This week has been marked by buying the dips and selling the rallies, as investors worry about a slowing economy and further monetary policy tightening, while retailers signal that high inflation is taking its toll on profit margins and consumer spending. .
?
The S&P 500's seven-week losing streak is the longest losing streak since the dotcom bubble burst more than two decades ago. According to Bespoke Investment Group, this is only the fourth time it has fallen for seven weeks or more since World War II. That's a small sample size, but no such move has occurred during a particularly positive period for the stock market, the company's strategists said in a note, rooted in a hawkish FOMC stance and heightened fears of a recession.
Precious Metals and Crude Oil
Spot gold rose slightly on Friday to close at $1,845.46 an ounce, up 1.86% this week, recording its first weekly gain in five, as concerns over economic growth continued and the dollar fell this week.
Safe-haven gold was supported by a slide in U.S. Treasury yields, which fell for a third straight session as investors remained concerned about growing signs of an economic slowdown.
Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures, said the dollar's pullback this week helped gold rise. In addition, as soon as the price of gold fell below the $1785 mark, bargain hunters entered the market, which provided moderate support.
Weak economic data, including a larger-than-expected number of U.S. initial jobless claims, underscored risks to growth as the Federal Reserve embarks on its most aggressive rate hike cycle in decades. Fears of a potential recession have investors flocking to gold-backed ETFs. ETF holdings recovered on Thursday from their lowest level since March, according to preliminary data compiled by Bloomberg.
TD Securities commodity strategist Ryan McKay and others said in the report that weak economic data has brought much-needed support to precious metal prices, however, they said that a sustained rebound in gold prices may face a relatively high threshold, downtrend and all precious metals The prevailing negative sentiment remains unbreakable.
Oil prices closed slightly higher on Friday, with U.S. crude up 0.42% late at $110.36 a barrel, as the European Union plans to impose an oil embargo on Russia, and some regions ease the lockdown of the new crown epidemic. The refined oil market remains tense, easing the slowdown in economic growth. The slowdown will affect demand concerns.
Rising demand for auto fuel and falling inventories ahead of the summer driving season underscores tight supply fundamentals, even as broader economic concerns rattled stocks. Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Management, said there is still a disconnect between the risky financial markets related to crude oil financial assets and the physical market trying to digest the release of strategic oil reserves to meet demand, which has left the market fragmented and volatile. , could end up being a brutal summer for energy traders.
Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at OANDA, said risks remain skewed to the upside, given the reopening of some regions and continued efforts by the European Union to impose an oil embargo on Russia.
The European Union hopes to reach an agreement on a proposal to ban imports of Russian crude, including solutions for exceptions in countries most reliant on Russian oil, such as Hungary.
In the U.S., U.S. energy companies added oil and gas rigs for the ninth straight week this week, as most small producers grappled with high oil prices and boosted output amid a government push, according to Baker Hughes statistics. The rig count is an indicator of future production growth.
foreign exchange
The dollar index was last up 0.16% at 103.04, while the 10-year Treasury yield fell 5 basis points to 2.783%; however, the dollar index was still down 1.4% for the week on concerns that the dollar's months-long rally may have been overdone. The Swiss franc posted a weekly gain of 2.75% against the dollar, its biggest weekly gain in more than two years, while the yen posted a weekly gain of more than 1% against the dollar.
JPMorgan strategist Meera Chandan and others wrote in a research note that slowing U.S. growth momentum would not challenge our bullish stance on the dollar relative to high-beta currencies, but a stronger case, saying whether the dollar should continue to run Winning against other reserve currencies remains an issue; the team is short EUR/USD.
The greenback has been supported by investors seeking safety in recent months as markets tumbled across markets amid fears of soaring inflation, a hawkish Federal Reserve and the fallout from the Russia-Ukraine conflict. That rally came to an abrupt end this week, however, as heightened volatility in global financial markets and the dollar's rise to highs in recent months prompted investors to turn to safe-haven currencies such as the yen and Swiss franc.
Jonas Goltermann of Capital Economics said in a note that it is time for the dollar to take a breather after its recent surge.
"We're definitely seeing the dollar a little bit higher, and there's room for other currencies to rise as well, as the outlook gradually improves if the global economy comes out of the woods and recovers from a poor first half," said Juan Perez, head of trading at Monex USA.
The euro fell as much as 0.5% to $1.0533 against the dollar at one point; its losses pared losses and was last at $1.0558.
The dollar pared gains against the yen, up 0.1 percent to 127.92, with Yoshio Sakakihara, a professor at Aoyama Gakuin University in Japan, saying the yen will trade between 140 and 150 by the end of this year.
GBP/USD pared gains to 0.19%, after rising as much as 0.3% to 1.2500; GBP/USD gained 1.94% for the week, its biggest weekly gain since December 2020, as the latest economic data suggested the market may not need a sharp Lowered expectations for a rate hike by the Bank of England.
Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill warned that price pressures were "substantial" and further rate hikes were needed. British consumer confidence fell to its lowest level in at least 48 years as higher prices dampened consumers' spending power.
The greenback was up 0.07% at 1.2831 against the Canadian dollar, after falling as much as 0.4% in the session as Canadian dollar bulls cut positions.
market news
[St. Louis Fed President Bullard: The market has started to re-price, especially because of the Fed (tightening monetary policy). The FOMC must regain control of US inflation, and the Fed has a good plan. For now, a single 50bps rate hike is still a good plan, and one has to keep an eye on the economic data. There should be a way to get the federal funds rate to 3.50% by the end of 2022. I don't think there's going to be a recession in the US in 2022, and that's not going to be my base assumption for 2023. Unemployment is expected to continue to decline]
[Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda Haruhiko: The Bank of Japan will continue to implement the current monetary policy. Russia's actions caused severe inflation. Still think Japan's inflation is unsustainable]
[Front page of Securities Times: LPR welcomes structural "interest rate cuts", which is good for medium- and long-term loan cost reductions] Unlike the previous LPR downturns, the latest LPR downturn on May 20 was only down for products with a maturity of more than 5 years. Lowering the LPR for a term of more than 5 years can reduce the cost of medium and long-term loans and improve the demand for medium and long-term loans. Compared with the 1-year LPR adjustment, which mainly affects liquidity loans, the reduction of the LPR for more than 5 years has a greater coverage of reducing the financing cost of the whole society, especially for individuals who are burdened with mortgage loans, which will directly reduce the monthly repayment required. mortgage interest. According to estimates, based on the loan amount of 1 million yuan, the term of 30 years, and the equal principal and interest repayment, the LPR for more than 5 years is reduced, the average monthly monthly payment can be reduced by nearly 89 yuan, and the total interest to be repaid is reduced by more than 30,000 yuan. .
[Intensive research by institutions, aiming at the layout of three major sectors] Since May, the A-share market has gradually stabilized and rebounded, market confidence has recovered, and the number of institutional research has increased significantly. In terms of fields, electronics, industrial machinery, and pharmaceutical and biological sectors are the focus of institutional research. The data shows that as of May 20, a total of 1,439 companies have been surveyed by institutions since May, while only 653 companies have been surveyed by institutions in the same period last month (April 1-20), a month-on-month increase of 120%. Industry insiders said that A shares are expected to usher in a wave of rebound. Now is a good time to optimize the investment portfolio, so institutions are actively conducting research, looking for more high-quality targets, and at the same time conducting research and verification on the existing portfolio targets. (China Securities Journal)
Bonus rebate to help investors grow in the trading world!
Or try Free Demo Trading
