Financial Breakfast on September 10: The dollar weakened, the euro rebounded, gold rose slightly, and crude oil fell due to the country’s reserves
The U.S. dollar fell slightly on September 9. U.S. Treasury yields fell after the 30-year U.S. Treasury auction received strong demand, while the euro was supported. Previously, the European Central Bank stated that it would slow down its emergency bond purchases in the coming quarter. The price of gold rose slightly, and investors are weighing the news that the number of US jobless claims fell to the lowest level since the epidemic last week and that the European Central Bank will slow down its asset purchase plan. U.S. oil fell by more than 2%, refreshing a more than one-week low to $67.56/barrel, because China announced that it would organize a national reserve of crude oil, and the decline in U.S. crude oil inventories last week was smaller than expected.

On Thursday (September 9), the US dollar weakened and the euro rose. After the 30-year U.S. Treasury tender and the European Central Bank confirmed that it would slow down bond purchases, global bond yields fell. Spot gold rose slightly to close at US$1,794.58 per ounce, boosted by the fall of the US dollar, but the market again bet that the Fed might start to reduce economic support measures ahead of schedule, and the European Central Bank also slowed down the pace of bond purchases, which limited the growth of gold prices. U.S. crude oil fell more than 2%, the biggest drop in the past three weeks, as China put in the national reserve crude oil to ease the pressure on raw material prices.
Commodity closing, COMEX December gold futures closed up 0.4%, reported 1,800 US dollars per ounce. WTI October crude oil futures closed down 1.16 US dollars, or 1.67%, to 68.14 US dollars per barrel; Brent November crude oil futures closed down 1.15 US dollars, or 1.58%, to 71.45 US dollars per barrel.
U.S. stocks closed: the S&P 500 index fell 0.5% to 4,493.28 points; the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.4% to 34879.38 points; the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.3% to 15,248.25 points; the Nasdaq 100 index fell 0.4 %, reported 15561.05 points; Russell 2000 index was basically flat, reported 2249.129 points.
Friday preview
time | area | index | The former value | Predictive value |
14:00 | U.K | Monthly rate of industrial output in July (%) | -0.7 | 0.4 |
14:00 | U.K | Annual rate of industrial output in July (%) | 8.3 | 3 |
14:00 | U.K | July GDP monthly rate (%) | 1 | 0.5 |
14:00 | U.K | Commodity trade account after July seasonal adjustment (100 million pounds) | -119.88 | -110 |
14:00 | U.K | July seasonally adjusted trade account (100 million pounds) | -25.14 | -16 |
14:00 | Germany | August CPI annual rate final value (%) | 3.9 | 3.9 |
16:00 | China | Social financing scale in August-single month (100 million yuan) (9/10-9/15) | 10600 | 28000 |
16:00 | China | Annual rate of M2 money supply in August (%) (9/10-9/15) | 8.3 | 8.4 |
20:30 | Canada | August unemployment rate (%) | 7.5 | 7.3 |
20:30 | Canada | Changes in the number of employees in August (ten thousand) | 9.4 | 6.68 |
20:30 | America | August PPI annual rate (%) | 7.8 | 8.2 |
20:30 | America | August core PPI annual rate (%) | 6.2 | 6.6 |
22:00 | America | Final value of monthly rate of wholesale inventory in July (%) | 0.6 | 0.6 |
01:00 AM | America | The total number of wells drilled in the United States for the week ending September 10 (ports) | 497 | 500 |
01:00 AM | America | The total number of oil rigs (mouth) for the week ending September 10 | 394 | 397 |
21:00 Cleveland Federal Reserve Chairman Meester speaks at the conference on new approaches to monetary policy
List of major global markets
The U.S. stock market was volatile on Thursday and closed down. Although the spread of Covid-19 delta variants disrupted global growth, the mixed economic data in the U.S. has made investors vigilant about the prospects of policy makers curtailing policy stimulus. The S&P 500 Index fell for the fourth consecutive trading day, and rose to less than 0.4% from its historical high during the intraday session.
Data on Thursday showed that as the labor market continued to recover, the number of first-time jobless claims in the United States fell to the lowest point since the epidemic. At the same time, however, there is increasing evidence that the Delta variant strain may be hindering economic recovery, and more US companies have expressed concern about it.
Independent Advisor Alliance chief investment officer Chris Zaccarelli pointed out that the stock market’s afternoon downturn coincided with the subsequent US Treasury bond auctions and bond market activities; investors bought US Treasury bonds on Thursday, depressing yields. Zaccarelli said that there is a general perception in the market that economic growth in the United States is slowing, and people are worried that the delta mutant strain is affecting consumer behavior and may affect corporate behavior.
Precious metals and crude oil
Spot gold rose slightly on Thursday, closing at $1,794.58 per ounce, boosted by the fall of the U.S. dollar, but the market again bet that the Fed may begin to reduce economic support measures ahead of schedule, and the European Central Bank also slowed down the pace of bond purchases, which limited the growth of gold prices.
The dollar fell slightly, making gold cheaper for holders of other currencies. The euro continued its slight upward trend after the European Central Bank said it would slow down the pace of debt purchases under its emergency plan.
Ed Moya, a senior market analyst at OANDA, a foreign exchange brokerage firm, said that the number of initial jobless claims in the United States last week was close to an 18-month low, which strengthened the Fed’s confidence that it may announce a reduction in debt purchases in December. Therefore, the price of gold will stay here. Consolidation near the level; Moya added that the possibility that the European Central Bank may begin to reduce its stimulus measures sometime next year has increased, pushing the price of gold back below US$1,800 per ounce.
Crude oil prices fell to the lowest in two weeks on Thursday. China announced that it would organize a national reserve of crude oil. The US crude oil inventories fell less than expected last week, and US debt rose as investors sought safer assets.
John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital LLC, said that the 30-year U.S. Treasury auction performance was amazing, and the winning interest rate was the lowest since January. This caused severe panic in the oil market and looked like funds flooded into safe-haven assets.
After falling by more than one dollar at the beginning of the market, the two major crude oils both rose. There were reports that a ship was trapped in the Suez Canal. The ship later re-floated without causing delays.
A report released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that gasoline inventories fell much more than expected last week, and after Hurricane Ida passed, U.S. production continued to recover slowly. Subsequently, oil prices held their gains.
However, after the U.S. auction for $24 billion in 30-year U.S. bonds in the afternoon, oil prices fell again by more than $1. This round of auctions received strong demand and the winning interest rate was as low as 1.91%. Investors dumped riskier assets such as oil and stocks.
EIA said that as of the week of September 3, US crude oil inventories fell by 1.5 million barrels, and gasoline inventories plummeted by 7.2 million barrels, which brought support to oil prices.
Foreign exchange
The euro rose in the New York currency market on Thursday and the dollar weakened. After the 30-year US Treasury bond tender and the European Central Bank confirmed that it would slow down bond purchases, global bond yields fell. Foreign exchange prices may have been affected by a series of one-month non-deliverable forward contracts, including 6 billion euros (1.1834 US dollars) contracts, and 2 billion US dollars in USD/JPY contracts with a net value of 109.8762 USD.
The dollar index fell 0.22% to 92.51, after hitting a one-month low of 91.94 last Friday. The focus of investors' attention is when the Fed will begin to reduce the scale of debt purchases as it measures the rising price pressures and the still relatively weak employment situation.
Data released on Thursday showed that the number of initial jobless claims in the United States fell to the lowest in nearly 18 months last week, which provides more evidence that employment growth is hindered by labor shortages, not because of the cooling demand for workers.
The euro rose 0.08% to 1.1825 against the US dollar, recovering from earlier losses; the previous European Central Bank meeting maintained a dovish tone without major surprises. The central bank will slow down the pace of emergency debt purchases in the next quarter and move towards gradually ending emergency assistance. Take the first small step. During the pandemic, emergency assistance supported the euro zone economy.
In the past two quarters, the European Central Bank purchased 80 billion euros of assets each month. The bank did not provide specific guidance on the size of bond purchases in the next three months. The monthly government bond purchase target is between 60 and 70 billion euros, maintaining the flexibility to increase or decrease bond purchases according to market conditions.
TD Securities analysts said in a report that the ECB’s actions today are basically in line with expectations. Looking ahead, the focus will be on how the ECB defines “moderate”. Any number below 60 billion euros per month may be negative. of.
Erik Nelson, a foreign exchange strategist at Wells Fargo Bank, wrote in a report that the prospect of the European Central Bank raising interest rates basically does not exist. Taking all these considerations together, the downward trend of the euro against the US dollar may be possible before the September FOMC meeting and the German election. Will be enhanced. We expect the Fed to continue to stand still in September, but may announce a reduction in November or December.
The British pound outperformed most currencies and set its biggest gain in nearly two weeks; the pound rose 0.48% to 1.3837 against the dollar. As the spread between British and German government bonds widened, the euro fell 0.4% to 0.8546 against the pound, breaking the 55-day moving average and hitting a three-week low of 0.85327.
The dollar fell 0.48% to 109.72 against the yen after hitting a one-month low.
The U.S. dollar fell 0.21% to 1.2664 against the Canadian dollar; Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said that the Bank of Canada continues to expect strong economic growth in the second half of this year, but due to the impact of the coronavirus, the rebound may not be stable.
International news
[European Central Bank: Keep the purchase scale of the Emergency Anti-epidemic Bond Purchase Program (PEPP) unchanged at 1.85 trillion euros] The rate of debt purchases for the Asset Purchase Program (APP) will remain unchanged at 20 billion euros per month. At least until the end of 2023, it will continue to reinvest the principal of maturing securities under the Emergency Anti-epidemic Bond Purchase Program (PEPP). Interest rates will remain at the current level or lower until the inflation rate reaches the target level of 2%. The purchase speed of the PEPP will be moderately reduced. PEPP's debt purchase rate will be slower than in the past few quarters. The PEPP plan will be used flexibly according to market conditions.
[European Central Bank President Lagarde: The rebound phase of economic recovery is advancing day by day. The economy is expected to return to its pre-crisis level by the end of the year. Most of the economy has opened up. The spread of the delta strain on a global scale has delayed the full opening of the economy. Inflation expectations are slightly raised. The financing environment is still good. A favorable financing environment is essential to economic recovery. Ready to adjust all tools as needed at any time. The economy is expected to grow strongly in the third quarter. The economic recovery is based on the success of COVID-19 vaccination. Our manufacturing recovery is hampered by supply shortage constraints. The labor market is improving. The recovery in demand has boosted the confidence of enterprises]
[European Central Bank raises GDP growth forecast for 2021] The European Central Bank expects GDP growth to be 5% in 2021, compared to 4.6% previously; GDP growth is expected to be 4.6% in 2022, and 4.7% previously; GDP growth is expected to be 2023 The speed is 2.1%, which was previously expected to be 2.1%.
[The European Central Bank raises its CPI growth forecast for 2021, 2022, and 2023] The European Central Bank expects CPI growth to be 2.2% in 2021, compared to 1.9% previously; CPI growth is expected to be 1.7% in 2022, compared to 1.5% previously. ; The CPI growth rate is expected to be 1.5% in 2023, compared with 1.4% previously.
[EIA report: U.S. commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves last week decreased by 1.528 million barrels to 423.9 million barrels] As of the week of September 3, gasoline inventories decreased by 7,215 million barrels, and refined oil inventories decreased by 3,141,100 barrels; the United States last week Domestic crude oil production decreased by 1.5 million barrels to 10 million barrels per day; commercial crude oil imported from strategic reserves last week was 5.81 million barrels per day, a decrease of 530,000 barrels per day from the previous week; exports decreased by 698,000 barrels per day to 2.342 million barrels /day.
[Sources said that European Central Bank policymakers agreed to set the monthly debt purchase target of the Emergency Anti-epidemic Bond Purchase Program (PEPP) between 60 billion and 70 billion euros, and the target is flexible]
[Bank of Canada Governor Macklem: The central bank will raise interest rates first, and then reduce the size of bond holdings. The central bank believes that reinvestment requires the purchase of 4-5 billion Canadian dollars in bonds every month. The recovery of the Canadian economy is uneven and there are still many uncertainties. The economic situation still requires the implementation of unconventional support measures. Recovery and inflation will guide the duration of the central bank's reinvestment, and reinvestment purchases will continue for "a period of time"]
【House of Representatives of the United States Congress: Democrats disclosed detailed information on the proportion of health care in the summary of the 3.5 trillion dollar budget legislation. The pharmaceutical industry must negotiate drug prices based on the Democratic Party’s plan. The Democratic Party’s draft legislation will provide $190 billion in funding for family-based healthcare. The Energy Commission disclosed information on the proportion of energy, and electric vehicle charging piles will receive $13.5 billion in grants. Hope to allocate 150 billion U.S. dollars to green utilities]
[Fed Governor Bowman: If the U.S. economic situation remains on the right track, the FOMC may reduce QE in 2021]
Domestic news
[The State Bureau of Grain and Materials Reserves organizes the release of national reserve crude oil] With the approval of the State Council, the State Bureau of Grain and Materials Reserves organized the release of national reserve crude oil in phases and batches in rotation for the first time. This launch is mainly for domestic refining and chemical integration enterprises to ease the pressure of rising raw material prices for production enterprises. Implementing the normalized rotation of national oil reserves is an important way to give play to the regulatory role of the reserve market. Putting national reserve crude oil on the market through open auction sales will better stabilize the domestic market supply and demand and effectively guarantee national energy security.
[Industry insiders: Consumer prices are stable and the PPI rises to a record high, and the monetary policy is expected to be stable and neutral] In August, the national CPI (Consumer Price Index) rose by 0.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.2 percentage points lower than the previous month; PPI (industrial producer ex-factory price) Index) rose 9.5% year-on-year, and the rate of increase further expanded, setting a new high since September 2008, which has attracted much attention. At the same time, the scissors gap between PPI and CPI continues to expand, indicating that price transmission is not smooth. On the one hand, the “high fever” of enterprises’ cost pressures continues, on the other hand, aggregate demand is still weak. Market participants said that the top of the PPI has not been confirmed so far, which poses a certain constraint on the monetary policy space. Looking forward to the later period, it is expected that the monetary policy will remain stable and neutral, and the probability of interest rate cuts is unlikely. (Securities Times)
[The public offering QDII quota increased to 64.24 billion U.S. dollars, and 6 companies including E Fund exceeded 3 billion U.S. dollars.] Recently, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange issued Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor (QDII) quotas to three institutions for a total of 2.5 billion U.S. dollars. After this round of issuance, the Foreign Exchange Administration has approved a total of 149.819 billion U.S. dollars in investment quotas for 173 QDII institutions. The cumulative approved QDII quota of public funds reached US$64.24 billion (approximately RMB 414.8 billion). At present, there are 6 fund companies with a total QDII quota of more than US$3 billion in the entire market, namely E Fund, China Asset Management, Southern Fund, Harvest Fund, Guangfa Fund, and Boshi Fund, with total quotas of US$5.85 billion and 4.85 billion respectively. U.S. dollars, 4.75 billion U.S. dollars, 4.1 billion U.S. dollars, 3.95 billion U.S. dollars and 3.35 billion U.S. dollars. (Securities Daily)
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