English
Market News Financial Breakfast on November 25: The Federal Reserve's minutes release a hawkish signal, the US dollar is approaching the 97 mark, and gold fell below 1780
Financial Breakfast on November 25: The Federal Reserve's minutes release a hawkish signal, the US dollar is approaching the 97 mark, and gold fell below 1780
On November 24, the U.S. dollar index continued to hit its high point since July last year to 96.94. The minutes of the Fed’s November meeting showed that many policymakers said that if inflation remains high, they will speed up the end of the bond purchase plan and speed up the rise. Interest is open. Spot gold once fell below the 1780 mark and almost recovered the intraday decline in late trading. Data showed that the US PCE inflation index in October hit a 31-year high, which supported the gold price. Oil prices closed down slightly, and US crude oil inventories increased last week. The International Energy Agency urged OPEC+ to ease the "artificial supply tension" in the oil market.
2021-11-25
8933
On Wednesday (November 24) the U.S. dollar rose against G10 currencies across the board, hitting a 16-month high against the euro and a nearly five-year high against the yen, as investors bet that the Fed will tighten monetary policy faster than other central banks. As the yields of the U.S. dollar and U.S. bonds rose, spot gold hit the lowest level since November 4 at $1,787.70 per ounce. Oil prices are basically stable, because investors remain skeptical about the effectiveness of the US-led strategic oil reserve release and turn their attention to the next steps of oil-producing countries.
In terms of commodity closing, the price of gold futures for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose less than 0.1% to settle at US$1,786.90 per ounce; WTI January crude oil futures closed down US$0.11, or 0.14%, to US$78.39 per barrel; cloth Lent's January crude oil futures closed down 0.06 US dollars, or 0.07%%, to 82.25 US dollars per barrel.
US stocks closed: the S&P 500 index rose 0.2% to 4701.46; the Dow Jones Industrial Average was basically flat at 35804.38; the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.4% to 15,845.23; the Nasdaq 100 index rose 0.4% , Reported 16367.81 points.
20:30 ECB announces minutes of monetary policy meeting Thanksgiving Day, US stocks are closed
ICE's Brent crude oil contract trading ends ahead of schedule at 03:30 on the 26th GMT+8
Trading of precious metals under CME, U.S. crude oil and foreign exchange contracts ended ahead of schedule at 02:00 on the 26th, GMT+8
U.S. stocks rose on Wednesday, and investors got rid of the worries about underweights that were highlighted in the minutes of the Fed’s last meeting. The S&P 500 index closed up, regaining the short-term decline after the Fed’s meeting minutes were announced. Real estate and energy stocks led the gains; the sales of new homes in the United States increased in October and house prices hit record highs; the Nasdaq 100 index, which has a relatively high technology stake Outperformed other major benchmark indexes.
Emily Roland, co-chief investment strategist at Hancock Investment Management, said that we must be cautious when we increase our holdings. We hope to hold some cyclical stocks to keep up with this wave of continuous rebound and recovery, but we also want to step on the brakes a little.
Marvin Loh, a global macro strategist at State Street Corporation, said that today's data shows that the job market is quite good. If there are signs that the job market is healing itself faster, then there will be interest rate hikes in the second half of next year. Having said that, we are already pricing in the possibility of interest rate hikes in mid-2022 and are starting to consider May 2022, so I think it is unlikely to be much more radical.
Spot gold fell to a three-week low on Wednesday. Earlier in the session, it fell to the lowest level since November 4 at $1,778.70 per ounce; the strong US economic data boosted the yield of the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasuries, and the market was earlier than the Fed Concerns about expected interest rate hikes exacerbated pessimism.
Earlier this week, the price of gold fell below the $1,800 mark as Fed Chairman Powell was nominated for re-election, increasing bets that the Fed will speed up monetary policy tightening, which boosted the U.S. dollar, which in turn allowed overseas buyers to buy gold. The cost is higher.
David Meger, head of metal trading at High Ridge Futures, said that the gold market is under pressure due to market concerns that the Fed may begin to step up its efforts to reduce bond purchases or raise interest rates earlier than previously expected.
Oil prices fell slightly, and the EIA report showed that US crude oil inventories increased by 1.02 million barrels last week. The White House announced on Tuesday that the United States will release 50 million barrels of strategic reserves. Japan, India, the United Kingdom and South Korea will also join forces to take action.
Ed Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda Corp., said that the small increase in inventories, the expected rebound in production, and the re-emerging of the United States as an oil importer are not enough to have any effect on crude oil prices.
The release of strategic oil reserves has long been digested by the oil market, and oil prices have fallen by $10 from the multi-year high set in October. The focus now turns to OPE+ and how the group will respond to this move by oil-consuming countries.
After a series of U.S. economic data was released, the U.S. dollar hit a new high since July last year, rising against most major developed market currencies; data showed that the number of U.S. unemployment claims for the first time fell to the lowest level since 1969. The euro is lower in option-related selling. The U.S. dollar hit a 16-month high against the euro and a nearly five-year high against the yen as investors bet that the Fed will tighten monetary policy faster than other central banks.
The U.S. dollar index rose 0.38% to 96.86; previously published data showed that consumer spending in the United States increased more than expected in October, and price pressures have also increased. The minutes of the Fed’s last policy meeting released on Wednesday showed that many policymakers said that if inflation remains high, they are open to speeding up the end of the bond purchase plan and speeding up the pace of raising interest rates.
Lou Brien, market strategist at DRW Trading, said that the strengthening of the US dollar reflects the wishful thinking of the ECB leadership, while the Federal Reserve is more concerned about inflation, so there may be policy differences.
Fed officials have contributed to this more hawkish view that if inflation does not ease, the Fed may act sooner to try to contain rising price pressures, while the European Central Bank is expected to maintain a more dovish attitude due to economic growth in Europe Lag.
San Francisco Fed Chairman Daley said on Wednesday that if inflation remains high and job growth remains strong, she is open to the Fed's accelerated pace of reducing asset purchases.
Greg Anderson, head of global foreign exchange at the Bank of Montreal in New York, said that there are now many end-of-year-related dollar buying, which is more important than the inflation prospects or the fact that Powell was nominated for re-election. Monthly contracts to cover the year-end risk exposure. So by such time as Monday, December 6, these pressures may be relieved.
The euro fell 0.44% to 1.1199 against the dollar; data released on Wednesday showed that German business confidence deteriorated for the fifth consecutive month in November, which hit the euro. Manufacturing supply bottlenecks and the surge in virus infections cast a shadow over the growth prospects of Europe's largest economy. After the US data was released, speculative and option-related selling appeared; the euro fell to 1.04560 Swiss francs against the Swiss franc, paying attention to the year's low of 1.04479.
Jordan Rochester, a foreign exchange strategist at Nomura, said that the euro lacks favorable catalysts before the end of the year. The decision makers of the European Central Bank turn to Eagles, and the rise in US yields may lead to continued outflow of investment portfolios. The focus of the market is the increase in the number of new crown cases in the euro zone, which puts pressure on the service industry, the speed of the Federal Reserve's downsizing, and the fall of the euro.
The dollar against the yen rose 0.31% to 115.52, the highest level in more than four years, and the dollar against the Swiss franc hit a seven-month high.
The Australian dollar fell 0.44% to 0.7196 against the US dollar; the New Zealand dollar fell 1.34% to 0.6856 against the US dollar, the lowest since August 23. Earlier, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%. A basis point trader was disappointed.
[Minutes of the Fed meeting: The Fed staff revised their expectations for U.S. inflation. Many officials have seen evidence that inflation is stubbornly high. Participants judged at the FOMC monetary policy meeting in November that it may take longer for prices to fall. Some participants said that speeding up Taper (reduced code QE) may be guaranteed, and they emphasized that Taper's speed must be flexible. Many participants believed that the Fed may need to raise interest rates early. The staff believes that the risks faced by the U.S. economic growth are still on the downside]
[EIA report: U.S. commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 1.017 million barrels to 434 million barrels last week] U.S. EIA gasoline inventories decreased by 603,000 barrels, refined oil inventories decreased by 1.968 million barrels, and Cushing crude oil for the week ending November 19 Inventories increased by 787,000 barrels; gasoline inventories fell to the lowest level since November 2017 last week. U.S. domestic crude oil production increased by 100,000 barrels to 11.5 million barrels per day. In addition to the strategic reserves, the import of commercial crude oil last week was 6.436 million barrels/day, an increase of 245,000 barrels/day from the previous week; exports decreased by 1.021 million barrels/day to 2.605 million barrels/day.
[OPEC consulting agency predicts that the release of crude oil reserves by the United States and other countries will lead to a substantial increase in global excess supply] The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) predicts that the release of strategic oil reserves by major consumer countries may greatly aggravate the oversupply situation in the global market. A week later, OPEC and its allies will hold a meeting to discuss whether to increase production; some OPEC+ representatives have stated that if the reserve crude oil released by the United States and other countries causes the market to overflow, it may cancel the increase in production originally scheduled for January. The Economic Commission’s forecast adds reasons for member states to lobby for the cancellation of production increases. According to a document obtained by Bloomberg, if 66 million barrels of crude oil are put in within two months, the excess supply in the global market will increase by 1.1 million barrels per day in January and February, reaching 2.3 million barrels per day and 2.3 million barrels per day. 3.7 million barrels per day.
[U.S. consumer confidence hit a 10-year low, due to high inflation] The final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in the United States fell to 67.4 in November, the lowest since 2011. Americans are worried about inflation. The final value in October was 71.7. Consumers surveyed worry that US inflation will reach 3.0% in the next 5-10 years, and it may reach 4.9% in 2022, a record high since 2008. The indicator of household durable goods purchase conditions fell to a record low since 1978. Richard Curtin, director of consumer research at the University of Michigan, said that the shortage of supplies caused by the new crown pneumonia epidemic is a direct cause, and the "roots" of inflation have become stronger and continue to spread in the US economy.
【Executive Meeting of the State Council: Deploying and Improving the Management of Local Government Special Bonds and Optimizing the Use of Funds] Premier Li Keqiang presided over an executive meeting of the State Council on November 24 to deploy and improve the management of local government special bonds, optimize the use of funds, and strictly supervise funds. The meeting pointed out that in recent years, implementing the deployment of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, local debt management has achieved positive results, hidden debts have been reduced, and the overall government leverage ratio has stabilized and declined. Since the beginning of this year, in accordance with the new quota approved by the National People's Congress, local governments have rationally issued and used local government special bonds to support the construction of key projects and major livelihood projects. The meeting requested that in the face of the new downward pressure on the economy, it is necessary to strengthen inter-cyclical adjustments. While continuing to manage local government debt and prevent and defuse risks, it should better play the role of special debt funds in driving social funds and expand effective investment to facilitate expansion. Domestic demand and consumption promotion. (CCTV)
[Preliminary evaluation by the National Development and Reform Commission found that some coal price index behaviors have non-compliance issues] In late October, in order to standardize price index behavior, the National Development and Reform Commission established a working group, according to the "Important Goods and Service Price Index Behavior Management Measures (Trial)", For 12 coal price index compilation and release entities, the price index behavior evaluation and compliance review were initiated. Judging from the preliminary assessment and compliance review, some coal price index behaviors have non-compliance issues, which mislead the market and to a certain extent cause the price increase to deviate from the fundamentals of supply and demand. In the next step, the National Development and Reform Commission will further verify in accordance with relevant regulations, and take disciplinary measures such as interviews, public exposure, rectification within a time limit, suspension of publication, and inclusion on the untrustworthy list for entities that are found to have violated the rules in the assessment and compliance review; If it constitutes a violation of the law, the relevant departments shall be investigated for legal responsibility in accordance with the law.
[Shanghai Futures Exchange: Adjusting the transaction fees of rebar futures and other related contracts] Starting from November 26, 2021 (that is, the evening and night trading of November 25): rebar futures Rb2201 and Rb2205 contracts are closed for trading fees Adjusted to three ten thousandths of the transaction amount. Hot-rolled coil futures Hc2201 and Hc2205 contract intraday closing Iakura transaction fee adjusted to three ten thousandths of the transaction amount. Stainless steel futures Ss2201 contract intraday closing Iakura transaction fee is adjusted to 40 yuan/hand.
In terms of commodity closing, the price of gold futures for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose less than 0.1% to settle at US$1,786.90 per ounce; WTI January crude oil futures closed down US$0.11, or 0.14%, to US$78.39 per barrel; cloth Lent's January crude oil futures closed down 0.06 US dollars, or 0.07%%, to 82.25 US dollars per barrel.
US stocks closed: the S&P 500 index rose 0.2% to 4701.46; the Dow Jones Industrial Average was basically flat at 35804.38; the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.4% to 15,845.23; the Nasdaq 100 index rose 0.4% , Reported 16367.81 points.
Thursday preview
| time | area | index | The former value | Predictive value |
| 15:00 | Germany | Final quarterly GDP quarterly rate after the third quarter adjustment (%) | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| 15:00 | Germany | The final value of the third quarter GDP annual rate without seasonal adjustment (%) | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| 15:00 | Germany | December Gfk Consumer Confidence Index | 0.9 | -1 |
| 19:00 | U.K | CBI retail sales difference in November | 30 |
20:30 ECB announces minutes of monetary policy meeting Thanksgiving Day, US stocks are closed
ICE's Brent crude oil contract trading ends ahead of schedule at 03:30 on the 26th GMT+8
Trading of precious metals under CME, U.S. crude oil and foreign exchange contracts ended ahead of schedule at 02:00 on the 26th, GMT+8
List of major global markets
U.S. stocks rose on Wednesday, and investors got rid of the worries about underweights that were highlighted in the minutes of the Fed’s last meeting. The S&P 500 index closed up, regaining the short-term decline after the Fed’s meeting minutes were announced. Real estate and energy stocks led the gains; the sales of new homes in the United States increased in October and house prices hit record highs; the Nasdaq 100 index, which has a relatively high technology stake Outperformed other major benchmark indexes.
Emily Roland, co-chief investment strategist at Hancock Investment Management, said that we must be cautious when we increase our holdings. We hope to hold some cyclical stocks to keep up with this wave of continuous rebound and recovery, but we also want to step on the brakes a little.
Marvin Loh, a global macro strategist at State Street Corporation, said that today's data shows that the job market is quite good. If there are signs that the job market is healing itself faster, then there will be interest rate hikes in the second half of next year. Having said that, we are already pricing in the possibility of interest rate hikes in mid-2022 and are starting to consider May 2022, so I think it is unlikely to be much more radical.
Precious metals and crude oil
Spot gold fell to a three-week low on Wednesday. Earlier in the session, it fell to the lowest level since November 4 at $1,778.70 per ounce; the strong US economic data boosted the yield of the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasuries, and the market was earlier than the Fed Concerns about expected interest rate hikes exacerbated pessimism.
Earlier this week, the price of gold fell below the $1,800 mark as Fed Chairman Powell was nominated for re-election, increasing bets that the Fed will speed up monetary policy tightening, which boosted the U.S. dollar, which in turn allowed overseas buyers to buy gold. The cost is higher.
David Meger, head of metal trading at High Ridge Futures, said that the gold market is under pressure due to market concerns that the Fed may begin to step up its efforts to reduce bond purchases or raise interest rates earlier than previously expected.
Oil prices fell slightly, and the EIA report showed that US crude oil inventories increased by 1.02 million barrels last week. The White House announced on Tuesday that the United States will release 50 million barrels of strategic reserves. Japan, India, the United Kingdom and South Korea will also join forces to take action.
Ed Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda Corp., said that the small increase in inventories, the expected rebound in production, and the re-emerging of the United States as an oil importer are not enough to have any effect on crude oil prices.
The release of strategic oil reserves has long been digested by the oil market, and oil prices have fallen by $10 from the multi-year high set in October. The focus now turns to OPE+ and how the group will respond to this move by oil-consuming countries.
Foreign exchange
After a series of U.S. economic data was released, the U.S. dollar hit a new high since July last year, rising against most major developed market currencies; data showed that the number of U.S. unemployment claims for the first time fell to the lowest level since 1969. The euro is lower in option-related selling. The U.S. dollar hit a 16-month high against the euro and a nearly five-year high against the yen as investors bet that the Fed will tighten monetary policy faster than other central banks.
The U.S. dollar index rose 0.38% to 96.86; previously published data showed that consumer spending in the United States increased more than expected in October, and price pressures have also increased. The minutes of the Fed’s last policy meeting released on Wednesday showed that many policymakers said that if inflation remains high, they are open to speeding up the end of the bond purchase plan and speeding up the pace of raising interest rates.
Lou Brien, market strategist at DRW Trading, said that the strengthening of the US dollar reflects the wishful thinking of the ECB leadership, while the Federal Reserve is more concerned about inflation, so there may be policy differences.
Fed officials have contributed to this more hawkish view that if inflation does not ease, the Fed may act sooner to try to contain rising price pressures, while the European Central Bank is expected to maintain a more dovish attitude due to economic growth in Europe Lag.
San Francisco Fed Chairman Daley said on Wednesday that if inflation remains high and job growth remains strong, she is open to the Fed's accelerated pace of reducing asset purchases.
Greg Anderson, head of global foreign exchange at the Bank of Montreal in New York, said that there are now many end-of-year-related dollar buying, which is more important than the inflation prospects or the fact that Powell was nominated for re-election. Monthly contracts to cover the year-end risk exposure. So by such time as Monday, December 6, these pressures may be relieved.
The euro fell 0.44% to 1.1199 against the dollar; data released on Wednesday showed that German business confidence deteriorated for the fifth consecutive month in November, which hit the euro. Manufacturing supply bottlenecks and the surge in virus infections cast a shadow over the growth prospects of Europe's largest economy. After the US data was released, speculative and option-related selling appeared; the euro fell to 1.04560 Swiss francs against the Swiss franc, paying attention to the year's low of 1.04479.
Jordan Rochester, a foreign exchange strategist at Nomura, said that the euro lacks favorable catalysts before the end of the year. The decision makers of the European Central Bank turn to Eagles, and the rise in US yields may lead to continued outflow of investment portfolios. The focus of the market is the increase in the number of new crown cases in the euro zone, which puts pressure on the service industry, the speed of the Federal Reserve's downsizing, and the fall of the euro.
The dollar against the yen rose 0.31% to 115.52, the highest level in more than four years, and the dollar against the Swiss franc hit a seven-month high.
The Australian dollar fell 0.44% to 0.7196 against the US dollar; the New Zealand dollar fell 1.34% to 0.6856 against the US dollar, the lowest since August 23. Earlier, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%. A basis point trader was disappointed.
International news
[Minutes of the Fed meeting: The Fed staff revised their expectations for U.S. inflation. Many officials have seen evidence that inflation is stubbornly high. Participants judged at the FOMC monetary policy meeting in November that it may take longer for prices to fall. Some participants said that speeding up Taper (reduced code QE) may be guaranteed, and they emphasized that Taper's speed must be flexible. Many participants believed that the Fed may need to raise interest rates early. The staff believes that the risks faced by the U.S. economic growth are still on the downside]
[EIA report: U.S. commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 1.017 million barrels to 434 million barrels last week] U.S. EIA gasoline inventories decreased by 603,000 barrels, refined oil inventories decreased by 1.968 million barrels, and Cushing crude oil for the week ending November 19 Inventories increased by 787,000 barrels; gasoline inventories fell to the lowest level since November 2017 last week. U.S. domestic crude oil production increased by 100,000 barrels to 11.5 million barrels per day. In addition to the strategic reserves, the import of commercial crude oil last week was 6.436 million barrels/day, an increase of 245,000 barrels/day from the previous week; exports decreased by 1.021 million barrels/day to 2.605 million barrels/day.
[OPEC consulting agency predicts that the release of crude oil reserves by the United States and other countries will lead to a substantial increase in global excess supply] The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) predicts that the release of strategic oil reserves by major consumer countries may greatly aggravate the oversupply situation in the global market. A week later, OPEC and its allies will hold a meeting to discuss whether to increase production; some OPEC+ representatives have stated that if the reserve crude oil released by the United States and other countries causes the market to overflow, it may cancel the increase in production originally scheduled for January. The Economic Commission’s forecast adds reasons for member states to lobby for the cancellation of production increases. According to a document obtained by Bloomberg, if 66 million barrels of crude oil are put in within two months, the excess supply in the global market will increase by 1.1 million barrels per day in January and February, reaching 2.3 million barrels per day and 2.3 million barrels per day. 3.7 million barrels per day.
[U.S. consumer confidence hit a 10-year low, due to high inflation] The final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in the United States fell to 67.4 in November, the lowest since 2011. Americans are worried about inflation. The final value in October was 71.7. Consumers surveyed worry that US inflation will reach 3.0% in the next 5-10 years, and it may reach 4.9% in 2022, a record high since 2008. The indicator of household durable goods purchase conditions fell to a record low since 1978. Richard Curtin, director of consumer research at the University of Michigan, said that the shortage of supplies caused by the new crown pneumonia epidemic is a direct cause, and the "roots" of inflation have become stronger and continue to spread in the US economy.
Domestic news
【Executive Meeting of the State Council: Deploying and Improving the Management of Local Government Special Bonds and Optimizing the Use of Funds] Premier Li Keqiang presided over an executive meeting of the State Council on November 24 to deploy and improve the management of local government special bonds, optimize the use of funds, and strictly supervise funds. The meeting pointed out that in recent years, implementing the deployment of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, local debt management has achieved positive results, hidden debts have been reduced, and the overall government leverage ratio has stabilized and declined. Since the beginning of this year, in accordance with the new quota approved by the National People's Congress, local governments have rationally issued and used local government special bonds to support the construction of key projects and major livelihood projects. The meeting requested that in the face of the new downward pressure on the economy, it is necessary to strengthen inter-cyclical adjustments. While continuing to manage local government debt and prevent and defuse risks, it should better play the role of special debt funds in driving social funds and expand effective investment to facilitate expansion. Domestic demand and consumption promotion. (CCTV)
[Preliminary evaluation by the National Development and Reform Commission found that some coal price index behaviors have non-compliance issues] In late October, in order to standardize price index behavior, the National Development and Reform Commission established a working group, according to the "Important Goods and Service Price Index Behavior Management Measures (Trial)", For 12 coal price index compilation and release entities, the price index behavior evaluation and compliance review were initiated. Judging from the preliminary assessment and compliance review, some coal price index behaviors have non-compliance issues, which mislead the market and to a certain extent cause the price increase to deviate from the fundamentals of supply and demand. In the next step, the National Development and Reform Commission will further verify in accordance with relevant regulations, and take disciplinary measures such as interviews, public exposure, rectification within a time limit, suspension of publication, and inclusion on the untrustworthy list for entities that are found to have violated the rules in the assessment and compliance review; If it constitutes a violation of the law, the relevant departments shall be investigated for legal responsibility in accordance with the law.
[Shanghai Futures Exchange: Adjusting the transaction fees of rebar futures and other related contracts] Starting from November 26, 2021 (that is, the evening and night trading of November 25): rebar futures Rb2201 and Rb2205 contracts are closed for trading fees Adjusted to three ten thousandths of the transaction amount. Hot-rolled coil futures Hc2201 and Hc2205 contract intraday closing Iakura transaction fee adjusted to three ten thousandths of the transaction amount. Stainless steel futures Ss2201 contract intraday closing Iakura transaction fee is adjusted to 40 yuan/hand.
Bonus rebate to help investors grow in the trading world!
Or try Free Demo Trading
