English
Market News Financial Breakfast on November 19: The U.S. dollar fell for two consecutive days, gold fell below 1860, and oil prices rebounded sharply from a six-week low
Financial Breakfast on November 19: The U.S. dollar fell for two consecutive days, gold fell below 1860, and oil prices rebounded sharply from a six-week low
The U.S. dollar weakened for the second consecutive trading day on November 18th. Traders assessed whether the U.S. dollar's recent gains have gone too far. Recently, when global inflation has soared, the expectations of central banks for tightening policies have diverged, driving the U.S. dollar to rise sharply. . Spot gold fell and closed at $1,858.95 per ounce. The US unemployment claims data for the first week was encouraging, which strengthened the market's bet that the Fed will raise interest rates earlier than expected, putting pressure on gold prices. U.S. oil rose by about 1% in late trading, rebounding by nearly $2 from a six-week low hit earlier, and recently fell below 80 to attract bargain hunting by some investors.
2021-11-19
8562
The US dollar index fell on Thursday (November 18), the euro rose to an intraday high in short covering against the dollar, and the Swiss franc fell against the euro after reaching its strongest level in more than six years. Gold futures ended lower, and investors took profit after hitting their highest closing price since June. U.S. oil rebounded sharply, rising by nearly 1% in late trading. Prior to the news that the Biden administration urged other countries to release strategic reserves of crude oil, oil prices fell to their lowest value in about six weeks.
Commodity closing, COMEX December gold futures closed down 0.5%, at 1,861.40 US dollars per ounce. WTI December crude oil futures closed up 0.65 US dollars, or 0.83%, to 79.01 US dollars per barrel. Brent January crude oil futures closed up 0.96 US dollars, or 1.18%, to 81.24 US dollars per barrel.
U.S. stocks closed: the S&P 500 index rose 0.3% to 4,704.54 points; the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2% to 35,870.95 points; the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.5% to 15,993.71 points; the Nasdaq 100 index rose 1.1 %, reported 16,482.97 points; Russell 2000 index fell 0.6%, reported 2,363.589 points.
23:45 Fed Governor Waller delivered a speech on the economic outlook 01:15 AM Fed Vice Chairman Clarida delivered a speech 02:00 European Central Bank President Lagarde delivered a speech
Technology stocks pushed the U.S. stock market to a record high in turbulent trading on Thursday, and the market will usher in a massive expiration of options on Friday. The S&P 500 Index has set a record high for the 66th time this year, and the number of new highs this year is expected to be second only to 1995. The high-weight Nasdaq 100 index of technology stocks has outstanding performance.
Scott Brown, a strategist at LPL Financial, said, does this mean investors should re-transfer all their assets to growth stocks? We believe that it is not necessarily, and believe that there are opportunities for growth and value style.
Mark Haefele, Chief Investment Officer of UBS Global Wealth Management, said that in the context of shrinking monetary stimulus and cyclical companies outperforming the broader market, the S&P 500 index may reach 5,200 points in the next six months, which means an increase of about 11 points from the current level. %.
Spot gold fell on Thursday, as the United States recently announced strong inflation data. The unemployment benefits data at the beginning of the week was also encouraging, strengthening the market's bet that the Fed will raise interest rates earlier than expected.
Data released on Thursday showed that the number of initial jobless claims in the United States dropped to near pre-pandemic levels last week. Any sign of economic recovery will reduce the safe-haven demand for gold.
Although the price of gold fell, it remained near the five-month high hit on Tuesday. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note stayed near its high in the past three weeks. The U.S. dollar took a rest and fell from its 16-month high. The weakening of the U.S. dollar made gold more attractive to buyers of other currencies.
Daniel Pavilonis, senior market strategist at RJO Futures, said that one of the main reasons for the surge in gold prices is the sharp drop in interest rates. But then interest rates rebounded, so the upside of gold prices is limited.
Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at AvaTrade, pointed out that the price of gold has been rising continuously in the past few weeks, and it is natural for traders to take profits. Although the price of gold futures fell on Thursday, we believe that investors are not worried about a major correction in the price of gold futures after the recent decline. After the Fed recently announced the reduction of bond purchases, the price of gold fell for a while, but the decline was not serious. From now on, gold futures prices are likely to gradually rise.
U.S. oil traded higher on Thursday in volatile trading. Its recent drop below $80 attracted bargain hunting from some investors. After Brent and WTI benchmark crude oil fell below its 50-day moving average on Wednesday, some buyers Attracted by low prices.
Spencer Vosko, Head of Crude Oil at Black Diamond Commodities LLC, said that after falling from the mid-range of US$80 last week, WTI crude oil prices seem to have gained some support at the US$78 level. The International Energy Agency said this week that with the rebound in global production and the surge in seaborne oil in recent weeks, some of the current tensions in the market have begun to ease.
UBS Commodity Analyst Giovanni Staunovo said that it feels that the strategic oil reserve will be released soon. It is just a question of when and how much it will be released.
The US dollar weakened for the second consecutive trading day, and traders assessed whether the dollar’s recent gains have gone too far. As the external European debt rose, short-covering pushed the euro to an intraday high, and the euro rose 0.5% to 1.1374 against the dollar. The Swiss franc fell against the euro after reaching its strongest level in more than six years.
Wells Fargo Securities currency market strategist Erik Nelson said that the US dollar has gone out of a big market in the past few weeks, and I think we are now taking a breather.
Boris Schlossberg, managing director of foreign exchange strategy at BK Asset Management, said that the U.S. dollar has risen across the board, and now the market will take a step back and assess whether the inflation theme really continues at the rate everyone believes. If this is true, then nothing can stop it. , But I think that if the data starts to cool slightly afterwards, you will definitely see a full correction of the dollar.
The euro was 0.46% against the US dollar to 1.1371, rebounding from a 16-month low below US$1.13 touched on Wednesday. The pound rose 0.05% against the US dollar and fluctuated throughout the day. Prior to this, the UK inflation rate surged in October, which put pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates at its policy meeting next month.
Commodity-related currencies rebounded along with oil prices, which had previously fallen to a six-week low. The U.S. dollar fell 0.06% to 1.2602 against the Canadian dollar. It rose 0.3% to 1.2647 before, which was the highest in about six weeks. The market expects the Bank of Canada to start raising interest rates early next year. The US dollar against the Norwegian Krone rose by 1.05% to 8.8394 in intraday trading, the highest since the end of August.
The Australian dollar also deviated from the six-week low of 0.7251 against the US dollar and rose 0.16% to 0.72765 in late trading; the New Zealand dollar rose 0.55% to the US dollar to 0.7036 US dollars. Previously, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand survey showed that the short-term inflation rate is expected to rise in the fourth quarter.
A U.S. dollar index fell on Thursday as U.S. Treasury yields were mixed. The euro against the dollar rose to an intraday high in short-covering, and US stocks were volatile. Earlier, data released by the United States showed that the number of people claiming unemployment benefits for the first time last week exceeded expectations;
The euro against the Swiss franc rose 0.15% to 1.0523; earlier it fell 0.1% to 1.04985, the lowest since July 2015. The consolidation of the risk reversal this week shows that there may not be a big follow-up market after breaking through the 1.05 key level. However, if the Swiss franc breaks through 1.05 euros again, it may trigger intervention by the Swiss National Bank. The Swiss National Bank’s policy is to buy foreign exchange when necessary to ensure that the monetary environment remains adequate.
[New York Fed President Williams: It is difficult to measure the natural interest rate. With a broader increase in inflation, the underlying inflation in the United States will definitely rise. Short-term and medium-term price expectations are expected to rise, and long-term price expectations are not expected to rise sharply. The economy is recovering and the unemployment rate is falling]
[Chicago Fed President Evans: The FOMC may raise interest rates after the end of Taper (underweight QE), or it may raise interest rates in 2023. There is still a long way to go in reducing inflation. Supply chain issues need to be resolved and it will take longer than expected. The unemployment rate is expected to be lower than 4.6% at the end of the year, and the unemployment rate will be even lower in 2022. Significant increase in labor costs]
[The U.S. House of Representatives will vote on Biden’s $2 trillion economic plan within a few hours] The Democrats of the U.S. House of Representatives prepare to vote on President Biden’s iconic tax and social expenditure bill on Thursday (GMT+8 Friday) Eastern Time . The Rules Committee meeting showed that Speaker Pelosi believes that there are enough Democrats to support this approximately $2 trillion plan. To be passed, she can only lose up to 3 Democrats' votes. After the House of Representatives passes, the bill will be submitted to the Senate, and the future is still uncertain.
[Fed Manufacturing Survey: Inflationary Pressure Continues to Build Up] Two US regional Fed manufacturing surveys released this week outline that inflationary pressures continue to build up as demand continues to strengthen and the supply chain is further under pressure. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s order index rose to the highest level since 1973. In November, the factory material cost index jumped to the second highest level since 1979, and the price index charged by local manufacturers soared to the highest level in 47 years. The New Orders Index of the New York Federal Reserve also rose, and is still much higher than the level before the epidemic. Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Amherst Pierpont Securities, said that the results of the Philadelphia Fed’s November manufacturing survey showed that the economy continued to overheat and the momentum of inflation continued to increase.
[Bulky commodity prices have fallen severely since November and leading companies have responded actively] Since the fourth quarter, commodity prices have fallen significantly. Judging from the situation in October, the supply and demand of bulk commodities were weak, the supply index fell to the lowest level since March last year, and the sales index fell for several months. Entering November, the downward trend in prices has intensified. Industry experts said that multiple factors such as supply and demand, global liquidity, and policies have caused this round of commodity prices to fall. This will speed up the elimination of backward production capacity companies, leading companies will have a prominent competitive advantage, and listed companies need to make good use of futures tools to deal with commodity price risks. In the medium and long term, the bulk commodity market is facing major adjustments, and the prices of industrial products will continue to decline. (Securities Daily)
[Stabilize the economy at the end of the year and strengthen the policy convergence of this year and the next two years] In the key window period of sprinting to stabilize the economy at the end of the year, the policy signals for strengthening the stability of the macroeconomic operation have been further strengthened. In addition to continuing to formulate and implement macroeconomic policies to meet the needs of market entities, and timely introduce and implement more powerful combined tax and fee reduction measures, the strengthening of cross-cycle adjustments and research on policy convergence in the next two years have been frequently emphasized. From departments to localities, step up plans for next year's economic work, and at the same time strengthen the reserve of major projects to better stimulate the vitality of investment and consumption. (Economic Information Daily)
Commodity closing, COMEX December gold futures closed down 0.5%, at 1,861.40 US dollars per ounce. WTI December crude oil futures closed up 0.65 US dollars, or 0.83%, to 79.01 US dollars per barrel. Brent January crude oil futures closed up 0.96 US dollars, or 1.18%, to 81.24 US dollars per barrel.
U.S. stocks closed: the S&P 500 index rose 0.3% to 4,704.54 points; the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2% to 35,870.95 points; the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.5% to 15,993.71 points; the Nasdaq 100 index rose 1.1 %, reported 16,482.97 points; Russell 2000 index fell 0.6%, reported 2,363.589 points.
Friday preview
| time | area | index | The former value | Predictive value |
| 07:30 | Japan | National CPI annual rate in October (%) | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| 07:30 | Japan | National core CPI annual rate in October (%) | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 07:30 | Japan | National core-core CPI annual rate in October (%) | -0.4 | |
| 08:01 | U.K | November Gfk Consumer Confidence Index | -17 | -18 |
| 15:00 | U.K | Monthly retail sales rate after seasonal adjustment in October (%) | -0.2 | 0.5 |
| 15:00 | U.K | Monthly core retail sales rate after seasonal adjustment in October (%) | -0.6 | 0.6 |
| 21:30 | Canada | Monthly retail sales rate in September (%) | 2.1 | -1.7 |
| 21:30 | Canada | September core retail sales monthly rate (%) | 2.8 | -1 |
| 02:00 AM | America | The total number of wells drilled in the United States for the week ending November 19 (mouth) | 556 | 563 |
| 02:00 AM | America | The total number of oil rigs (mouth) in the week ending November 19 | 454 | 460 |
23:45 Fed Governor Waller delivered a speech on the economic outlook 01:15 AM Fed Vice Chairman Clarida delivered a speech 02:00 European Central Bank President Lagarde delivered a speech
List of major global markets
Technology stocks pushed the U.S. stock market to a record high in turbulent trading on Thursday, and the market will usher in a massive expiration of options on Friday. The S&P 500 Index has set a record high for the 66th time this year, and the number of new highs this year is expected to be second only to 1995. The high-weight Nasdaq 100 index of technology stocks has outstanding performance.
Scott Brown, a strategist at LPL Financial, said, does this mean investors should re-transfer all their assets to growth stocks? We believe that it is not necessarily, and believe that there are opportunities for growth and value style.
Mark Haefele, Chief Investment Officer of UBS Global Wealth Management, said that in the context of shrinking monetary stimulus and cyclical companies outperforming the broader market, the S&P 500 index may reach 5,200 points in the next six months, which means an increase of about 11 points from the current level. %.
Precious metals and crude oil
Spot gold fell on Thursday, as the United States recently announced strong inflation data. The unemployment benefits data at the beginning of the week was also encouraging, strengthening the market's bet that the Fed will raise interest rates earlier than expected.
Data released on Thursday showed that the number of initial jobless claims in the United States dropped to near pre-pandemic levels last week. Any sign of economic recovery will reduce the safe-haven demand for gold.
Although the price of gold fell, it remained near the five-month high hit on Tuesday. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note stayed near its high in the past three weeks. The U.S. dollar took a rest and fell from its 16-month high. The weakening of the U.S. dollar made gold more attractive to buyers of other currencies.
Daniel Pavilonis, senior market strategist at RJO Futures, said that one of the main reasons for the surge in gold prices is the sharp drop in interest rates. But then interest rates rebounded, so the upside of gold prices is limited.
Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at AvaTrade, pointed out that the price of gold has been rising continuously in the past few weeks, and it is natural for traders to take profits. Although the price of gold futures fell on Thursday, we believe that investors are not worried about a major correction in the price of gold futures after the recent decline. After the Fed recently announced the reduction of bond purchases, the price of gold fell for a while, but the decline was not serious. From now on, gold futures prices are likely to gradually rise.
U.S. oil traded higher on Thursday in volatile trading. Its recent drop below $80 attracted bargain hunting from some investors. After Brent and WTI benchmark crude oil fell below its 50-day moving average on Wednesday, some buyers Attracted by low prices.
Spencer Vosko, Head of Crude Oil at Black Diamond Commodities LLC, said that after falling from the mid-range of US$80 last week, WTI crude oil prices seem to have gained some support at the US$78 level. The International Energy Agency said this week that with the rebound in global production and the surge in seaborne oil in recent weeks, some of the current tensions in the market have begun to ease.
UBS Commodity Analyst Giovanni Staunovo said that it feels that the strategic oil reserve will be released soon. It is just a question of when and how much it will be released.
Foreign exchange
The US dollar weakened for the second consecutive trading day, and traders assessed whether the dollar’s recent gains have gone too far. As the external European debt rose, short-covering pushed the euro to an intraday high, and the euro rose 0.5% to 1.1374 against the dollar. The Swiss franc fell against the euro after reaching its strongest level in more than six years.
Wells Fargo Securities currency market strategist Erik Nelson said that the US dollar has gone out of a big market in the past few weeks, and I think we are now taking a breather.
Boris Schlossberg, managing director of foreign exchange strategy at BK Asset Management, said that the U.S. dollar has risen across the board, and now the market will take a step back and assess whether the inflation theme really continues at the rate everyone believes. If this is true, then nothing can stop it. , But I think that if the data starts to cool slightly afterwards, you will definitely see a full correction of the dollar.
The euro was 0.46% against the US dollar to 1.1371, rebounding from a 16-month low below US$1.13 touched on Wednesday. The pound rose 0.05% against the US dollar and fluctuated throughout the day. Prior to this, the UK inflation rate surged in October, which put pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates at its policy meeting next month.
Commodity-related currencies rebounded along with oil prices, which had previously fallen to a six-week low. The U.S. dollar fell 0.06% to 1.2602 against the Canadian dollar. It rose 0.3% to 1.2647 before, which was the highest in about six weeks. The market expects the Bank of Canada to start raising interest rates early next year. The US dollar against the Norwegian Krone rose by 1.05% to 8.8394 in intraday trading, the highest since the end of August.
The Australian dollar also deviated from the six-week low of 0.7251 against the US dollar and rose 0.16% to 0.72765 in late trading; the New Zealand dollar rose 0.55% to the US dollar to 0.7036 US dollars. Previously, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand survey showed that the short-term inflation rate is expected to rise in the fourth quarter.
A U.S. dollar index fell on Thursday as U.S. Treasury yields were mixed. The euro against the dollar rose to an intraday high in short-covering, and US stocks were volatile. Earlier, data released by the United States showed that the number of people claiming unemployment benefits for the first time last week exceeded expectations;
The euro against the Swiss franc rose 0.15% to 1.0523; earlier it fell 0.1% to 1.04985, the lowest since July 2015. The consolidation of the risk reversal this week shows that there may not be a big follow-up market after breaking through the 1.05 key level. However, if the Swiss franc breaks through 1.05 euros again, it may trigger intervention by the Swiss National Bank. The Swiss National Bank’s policy is to buy foreign exchange when necessary to ensure that the monetary environment remains adequate.
International news
[New York Fed President Williams: It is difficult to measure the natural interest rate. With a broader increase in inflation, the underlying inflation in the United States will definitely rise. Short-term and medium-term price expectations are expected to rise, and long-term price expectations are not expected to rise sharply. The economy is recovering and the unemployment rate is falling]
[Chicago Fed President Evans: The FOMC may raise interest rates after the end of Taper (underweight QE), or it may raise interest rates in 2023. There is still a long way to go in reducing inflation. Supply chain issues need to be resolved and it will take longer than expected. The unemployment rate is expected to be lower than 4.6% at the end of the year, and the unemployment rate will be even lower in 2022. Significant increase in labor costs]
[The U.S. House of Representatives will vote on Biden’s $2 trillion economic plan within a few hours] The Democrats of the U.S. House of Representatives prepare to vote on President Biden’s iconic tax and social expenditure bill on Thursday (GMT+8 Friday) Eastern Time . The Rules Committee meeting showed that Speaker Pelosi believes that there are enough Democrats to support this approximately $2 trillion plan. To be passed, she can only lose up to 3 Democrats' votes. After the House of Representatives passes, the bill will be submitted to the Senate, and the future is still uncertain.
[Fed Manufacturing Survey: Inflationary Pressure Continues to Build Up] Two US regional Fed manufacturing surveys released this week outline that inflationary pressures continue to build up as demand continues to strengthen and the supply chain is further under pressure. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s order index rose to the highest level since 1973. In November, the factory material cost index jumped to the second highest level since 1979, and the price index charged by local manufacturers soared to the highest level in 47 years. The New Orders Index of the New York Federal Reserve also rose, and is still much higher than the level before the epidemic. Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Amherst Pierpont Securities, said that the results of the Philadelphia Fed’s November manufacturing survey showed that the economy continued to overheat and the momentum of inflation continued to increase.
Domestic news
[Bulky commodity prices have fallen severely since November and leading companies have responded actively] Since the fourth quarter, commodity prices have fallen significantly. Judging from the situation in October, the supply and demand of bulk commodities were weak, the supply index fell to the lowest level since March last year, and the sales index fell for several months. Entering November, the downward trend in prices has intensified. Industry experts said that multiple factors such as supply and demand, global liquidity, and policies have caused this round of commodity prices to fall. This will speed up the elimination of backward production capacity companies, leading companies will have a prominent competitive advantage, and listed companies need to make good use of futures tools to deal with commodity price risks. In the medium and long term, the bulk commodity market is facing major adjustments, and the prices of industrial products will continue to decline. (Securities Daily)
[Stabilize the economy at the end of the year and strengthen the policy convergence of this year and the next two years] In the key window period of sprinting to stabilize the economy at the end of the year, the policy signals for strengthening the stability of the macroeconomic operation have been further strengthened. In addition to continuing to formulate and implement macroeconomic policies to meet the needs of market entities, and timely introduce and implement more powerful combined tax and fee reduction measures, the strengthening of cross-cycle adjustments and research on policy convergence in the next two years have been frequently emphasized. From departments to localities, step up plans for next year's economic work, and at the same time strengthen the reserve of major projects to better stimulate the vitality of investment and consumption. (Economic Information Daily)
Bonus rebate to help investors grow in the trading world!
Or try Free Demo Trading
