Market News Experts say oil prices may not fall even in recession
Experts say oil prices may not fall even in recession
A growing number of economists are warning that a recession may be imminent. A recession will certainly impact oil demand, but only dent its growth, not cause an annual drop in global demand. For oil demand to really shrink, the recession has to be severe, and the Fed is optimistic about a soft landing for the U.S. economy.
2022-05-20
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A growing number of economists and Wall Street bankers are warning of a recession coming later this year or next . Another group of analysts said a recession, even if it did, might not be as severe as the pandemic shock or in 2008 to hit global oil demand and prices .
The Federal Reserve is raising interest rates, and annual inflation in most advanced economies is at its highest level in 40 years. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has also dimmed the economic outlook for Europe, while global food prices are surging, as both warring adversaries are major exporters of agricultural commodities. Russia is also a major exporter of energy commodities. All of these factors combine to have analysts and bankers worried that a recession is only a matter of time , as the Federal Reserve signals multiple rate hikes to combat the highest inflation in 40 years.
The question here is, can the Fed succeed in lowering inflation without triggering a recession? Or, how much will global oil demand take a hit in the event of a recession?
According to Bloomberg Review columnist Javier Blas, there's a good chance there will be a milder recession like the one in 1990 and 2001, not the one in 2008. Blas argues that a recession, even a mild one, will certainly impact oil demand, but only dent its growth, rather than lead to an annual drop in global demand .
If so, oil demand may not collapse and oil prices may not collapse, at least not as badly as the bears think.
Like many predictions over the past two years, these also depend on major unknowns, including how Asia will recover from the pandemic restrictions of the past few weeks, how intense the war in Ukraine will be, and whether Russia will one day decide to cut off access to the entirety of Europe. supply of natural gas, causing an immediate recession.
Fighting inflation has become more complicated for monetary policymakers, including the Federal Reserve, as high energy prices and record diesel prices affect all aspects of the economy, as larger rate hikes could lead to economic activity and households Spending deteriorated, eventually leading to a recession. But the Fed sees a good chance of a soft landing for the U.S. economy right now.
Brent Crude Oil Daily Chart
GMT+8 at 13:51 on May 20, Brent crude oil was $111.57/barrel in a row
The Federal Reserve is raising interest rates, and annual inflation in most advanced economies is at its highest level in 40 years. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has also dimmed the economic outlook for Europe, while global food prices are surging, as both warring adversaries are major exporters of agricultural commodities. Russia is also a major exporter of energy commodities. All of these factors combine to have analysts and bankers worried that a recession is only a matter of time , as the Federal Reserve signals multiple rate hikes to combat the highest inflation in 40 years.
The question here is, can the Fed succeed in lowering inflation without triggering a recession? Or, how much will global oil demand take a hit in the event of a recession?
According to Bloomberg Review columnist Javier Blas, there's a good chance there will be a milder recession like the one in 1990 and 2001, not the one in 2008. Blas argues that a recession, even a mild one, will certainly impact oil demand, but only dent its growth, rather than lead to an annual drop in global demand .
If so, oil demand may not collapse and oil prices may not collapse, at least not as badly as the bears think.
Like many predictions over the past two years, these also depend on major unknowns, including how Asia will recover from the pandemic restrictions of the past few weeks, how intense the war in Ukraine will be, and whether Russia will one day decide to cut off access to the entirety of Europe. supply of natural gas, causing an immediate recession.
Fighting inflation has become more complicated for monetary policymakers, including the Federal Reserve, as high energy prices and record diesel prices affect all aspects of the economy, as larger rate hikes could lead to economic activity and households Spending deteriorated, eventually leading to a recession. But the Fed sees a good chance of a soft landing for the U.S. economy right now.
Brent Crude Oil Daily Chart
GMT+8 at 13:51 on May 20, Brent crude oil was $111.57/barrel in a row
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