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Market News EUR/USD Retreats Further on Thursday as Expectations for a Rate Cut Diminish

EUR/USD Retreats Further on Thursday as Expectations for a Rate Cut Diminish

The EUR/USD pair eases as risk-averse flows strengthen the USD. US Services PMI increases reignite concerns of persistent inflation. Optimisms regarding a reduction in services inflation falter due to the Fed's rate cut.

TOP1 Markets Analyst

2024-05-24

7382

The EUR/USD pair continued its downward trend on Thursday, approaching the 1.0800 handle, following an unexpected increase in the US Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures, which reignited concerns regarding the likelihood of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Euro deflated and investors fled to the safe-haven US Dollar, notwithstanding the HCOB PMI figures that exceeded expectations earlier in the day.

On Thursday, European and US PMI figures both exceeded market expectations, with figures generally printing above expectations and showing improvement over previous figures. However, broad-market expectations for a September Fed rate cut were severely undermined by a higher-than-anticipated increase in US Services PMIs from 51.3 to 54.8.

Rate traders have marginally even odds of spotting at least a quarter-point reduction at the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, according to the CME's FedWatch Tool. Compared to the 70% odds that were anticipated at the start of the trading week, the likelihood of no Fed cuts in 2024 is a considerably lower possibility that investors are attempting to comprehend.

Through 2024, traders' wide expectations for Fed rate cuts have been gradually reduced to a slurry. Broadly speaking, markets priced in a minimum of six rate decreases from the Federal Reserve through the end of the year in December. By the end of May, investors are frantically attempting to maintain optimism regarding a single reduction that could persist until December at the latest.

Germany's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is anticipated to remain unchanged at 0.2% for the first quarter in its GDP report on Friday. On the agenda for Friday's US market session are US Durable Goods Orders for April, which are anticipated to decline by -0.8% month-over-month from the previous month's 2.6%.