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Market News EUR/JPY Consolidates Weekly Losses Below 156,000 As Markets Await ECB And BoJ Policy Decisions

EUR/JPY Consolidates Weekly Losses Below 156,000 As Markets Await ECB And BoJ Policy Decisions

EUR/JPY adheres to modest gains on the first positive day in four and remains defensive at the week's lowest level. Inadequate yields, muddled sentiment, and ECB positioning permit the cross-currency pair to recoup some of its recent losses. The ECB could follow the Fed with a rate hike of 0.25%, but the likelihood of a dovish hike and continued Euro weakness is high. The IMF's urging to the BoJ and rising inflationary pressures allow JPY purchasers to remain optimistic despite the central bank's probable inaction.

TOP1 Markets Analyst

2023-07-27

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EUR/JPY exhibits the typical pre-data consolidation during the early hours of Thursday, posting its first daily gain in four days near 155.60 as it awaits the European Central Bank (ECB) Interest Rate Decision. Also significant will be Friday's monetary policy decision by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). It should be noted that a halt in Treasury bond yields also contributed to the latest rebound in the cross-currency pair.

Nonetheless, 10-year and 2-year US Treasury bonds declined the day before after the Federal Reserve (Fed) failed to impress markets with a 0.25 percentage point rate rise and signalled readiness for a September rate hike. As of press time, the coupon rate on the benchmark 10-year bond oscillates around 3.87 percent, while the coupon rate on its two-year counterpart has reached 4.86 percent.

In addition, negative results from foreign investments in Japanese equities and bonds during the week ending July 21 supported the EUR/JPY exchange rate.

Wednesday, an unnamed Japanese government official reported that Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda defended the yield curve control (YCC) policy regarding the stability of Japan's long-term yield rate. Ueda was also said to demonstrate the BoJ's willingness to maintain a favourable financial environment for businesses.

In addition, the Japanese Cabinet Office released its monthly economic assessment depicting an optimistic business climate.

However, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued a warning about rising inflation in Japan and urged the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to abandon its easy-money policy.

Notably, the marginally bid S&P500 Futures and Japan's Nikkei indicate cautious optimism in the market and also support the EUR/JPY recovery.

The ECB is anticipated to announce a 0.25 percentage point increase in benchmark interest rates, following the Fed's lead. However, President Christine Lagarde's capacity to defend the hawks will be essential for the Euro to maintain its strength.