EURGBP maintains small increases over the mid-0.8700s but lacks bullish conviction

The EURGBP cross advances for a second consecutive day on Monday and maintains its small intraday gains through the start of the European session. The cross is currently positioned above the middle of 0.87, but lacks follow-through purchasing and bullish conviction.

Bets on a more aggressive policy tightening by the European Central Bank continue to provide some support for the common currency (ECB). In contrast, the pessimistic forecast for the UK economy weakens the value of the British Pound. In actuality, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) forecasts that fourth-quarter GDP growth in the United Kingdom will be flat and that the probability of a recession remains strong. This is believed to provide some support for the EURGBP cross.

However, the likelihood of additional interest rate hikes by the Bank of England acts as a tailwind for the British pound. Aside from this, a minor US Dollar recovery from a near three-month low places some pressure on the Euro and caps any significant gain for the EURGBP cross, at least for the time being. Before this week's critical UK macro data - the monthly jobs report on Tuesday and the CPI report on Wednesday - traders appear wary to take bold wagers.

Wednesday's Monetary Policy Report Hearings at the Bank of England and Thursday's Autumn Statement by Chancellor Jeremy Hunt will provide additional guidance to investors. This will play a crucial part in determining the near-term sentiment surrounding the GBP and the next leg of the EURGBP cross's directional move. In the interim, spot prices are anticipated to consolidate within a range in the absence of market-moving economic data from either the Eurozone or the United Kingdom.