EUR/GBP Regains Some Lost Ground Below 0.8600 In Advance Of UK CPI and Eurozone GDP

During Wednesday's early Asian session, the EUR/GBP currency pair regains some lost ground but remains limited below the 0.8600 level. The market awaits important data from the United Kingdom and the Eurozone. Later in the day, the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July and Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will be released, which could cause volatility in the cross.

Tuesday, the Zentrum für Europaische Wirtschaftsforschung reported that the Eurozone ZEW Survey Economic Sentiment for August came in at -5.5, which was better than the previous reading of -12 and the estimate of -12. Meanwhile, August German ZEW Survey Economic Sentiment improved to -12.3 from -14.4 expected and -14.7 previously. In the same vein, the German ZEW Survey Current Situation deteriorated to -71.3, which was worse than the expected -63 and the previous reading of -59.5.

The monthly Economic Bulletin of the European Central Bank (ECB) disclosed last week that the Eurozone's inflation is still expected to be too high for too long, and that the outlook for economic growth and inflation remains uncertain. The target inflation rate of 2.0% will not be attained until at least 2025, according to a Reuters poll, and more than 90 percent of economists surveyed anticipate no rate cuts before the second quarter of 2024.

Contrary to market expectations, the number of employed declined by 66,000 in the United Kingdom. In the three months prior to June, the Average Earnings excluding bonuses increased by 7.8% year-over-year. This number represents the highest annual growth rate since records began being kept in 2001, while Average Earnings, including bonuses, reached 8.2%, the quickest rate since the coronavirus pandemic. Eventually, the unemployment rate rose from 4% to 4.2%.

As the economy of the United Kingdom is fragile and the interest rate is at a 15-year high of 5.25 percent, market participants are wary of the BoE's move. The aggressive monetary policy might have a negative impact on the British economy. In turn, this may limit the Pound's appreciation and function as a tailwind for the EUR/GBP cross.

Later this week, the Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter and the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices for July will be released. On the agenda for the United Kingdom are the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Retail Sales MoM for July. The data will be crucial for determining a definitive EUR/GBP movement.