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Market News Daily Review of Agricultural Futures and Energy and Chemical Futures

Daily Review of Agricultural Futures and Energy and Chemical Futures

Soybeans: Long and short game before the report, even the meal fluctuated at a low level; Oils: Oils and oils closed down and palm oil adjusted greatly; Crude oil: U.S. crude oil production is expected to decline, and oil prices rose sharply; Rubber: There is limited room for decline and rubber prices remain volatile; PTA: PTA intraday It is not advisable to blindly chase the rise when the opening board falls; polyolefin: the market sentiment has recovered and the disk has stabilized with shocks; methanol: Neng Hua has mostly rebounded and the methanol has risen; bitumen: the stable supply of bitumen is lower than expected;

2022-05-12
8088
Soybeans: Long and short game before the report, even the meal fluctuated at a low level;
On Thursday, the continuous low-level fluctuations of meal continued, the price center of gravity moved up slightly, the rivalry between long and short funds intensified, and the positions increased significantly, but the price fluctuation range was limited. Internationally, the CBOT soybean market closed down in electronic trading on Thursday. The USDA report is about to be released tonight, and the market has increased risk aversion, so stay on the sidelines and wait for further guidance from the report. In addition, the intraday drop in crude oil also put pressure on the market. Affected by this, the domestic soybean meal spot closed up slightly, ranging from 10-20 yuan / ton. The domestic soybean meal transaction has improved since this week, especially in the past two trading days. Due to the increase in supply, the basis in some areas is still in a downward trend. The overall basis remained weak in May. Relatively speaking, the trend of continuous meal is slightly stronger than that of spot, but subject to the dual constraints of US soybean and oil trends, the short-term weak fluctuation of continuous meal will continue, waiting for the clear direction of US soybean to give a boost. Short-term operation is appropriate.

Oils and fats: Oils and fats closed down in shock, palm oil adjusted greatly;
Domestic oil futures fluctuated at a low level on Thursday, with sharp intraday price fluctuations and variety differences. With the closing of short-term long positions, oils and fats fell from the high level in the night trading, especially palm oil. Relatively speaking, the adjustment range of soybean oil and rapeseed oil was not as good as that of palm oil. In terms of spot, the price of Jiangsu soybean oil rose with the market. The mainstream soybean oil in the local market was quoted at 11,680 yuan / ton - 11,740 yuan / ton, up 120 yuan / ton from the morning of the previous trading day. The price of palm oil in Guangzhou, Guangdong fluctuated within a range. The mainstream palm oil in the local market was quoted at 15,350 yuan/ton to 15,410 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the morning disk of the previous trading day; the price of vegetable oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu was raised, and the mainstream vegetable oil in the local market The quotation is 14,200 yuan/ton -14,260 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton from the morning disk of the previous trading day.
Crude palm oil futures on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives (BMD) fell on Thursday. Prominent analysts expect bearish palm oil prices in the second half of the year, making market sentiment cautious. The USDA will release an important report on Thursday (GMT+8 at 12am Friday), also adding to the wait-and-see mentality of investors. The current market forecast for the cancellation of Indonesia's export policy is increasing, which is putting pressure on Malaysian palm oil. Domestically, domestic oils and fats tend to follow international oils and fats more. Due to the inversion of imports, the trend of domestic oils and fats is slightly stronger than that of external markets. Due to the large price gap between oils and fats, the oil price gap has been slightly repaired in the short term. Oil and fat high volatility intensified. Short-term operation is appropriate.

Crude oil: U.S. crude oil production is expected to fall, oil prices rise sharply;
The price of domestic crude oil futures rose sharply on Thursday. The main contract SC2206 closed at 678.7 yuan/barrel, up 23 yuan/barrel, or 3.51%, and the position decreased by 2403 lots. The market is worried about the US NOPEC proposal, while the US Energy Information Administration lowered its forecast for US crude oil production in 2022, China's demand has gradually improved, and international oil prices have risen strongly. If NOPEC is signed into law, the U.S. attorney general will have the power to sue OPEC members such as Saudi Arabia in federal court, and non-OPEC producers could also be sued. The United States hopes to use the anti-OPEC plan to force Saudi Arabia to release a large amount of idle production capacity in the short term, so as to resolve the contradiction of high oil prices after increasing production; however, Saudi Arabia hopes to moderately increase production as planned, and can adjust oil prices at any time in the process of releasing idle production capacity one after another. Therefore, the goals of the two are different, and there is a game of interests. At present, only the United Arab Emirates has responded, and many other oil-producing countries have not responded. According to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, as of the week of May 6, U.S. crude oil inventories were 424.214 million barrels, an increase of 8.49 million barrels from the previous week; crude oil inventories in the Cushing area of Oklahoma were 28.242 million barrels, a decrease from the previous week. 590,000 barrels. The data also showed that U.S. gasoline inventories were 224.968 million barrels, a decrease of 3.61 million barrels from the previous week; distillate inventories were 104.029 million barrels, a decrease of 910,000 barrels from the previous week. U.S. crude oil production averaged 11.8 million barrels per day, down 100,000 barrels from the previous Sunday average. Technically, the oil price SC2206 may remain in the range of 600-720 yuan/barrel in the short term. Operation suggestion: Shock thinking operation.



Rubber: The downside is limited, and the price of rubber remains volatile;
Hujiao finished higher and fell on Thursday, running in a slight shock. Hujiao fell weakly today, and the spot price of natural rubber in the Shanghai market fell by 50 yuan / ton following the disk. At present, the overall delivery is not smooth, the actual demand performance is average, and individual rubber types are mainly stable. The mainstream reference prices are as follows: the price of whole milk in 20 years is 12,300-12,350 yuan/ton, and the price of 3L/mixed rubber in Vietnam is around 12,500-12,550 yuan/ton. The output of new rubber increased, imports remained sluggish, and the port inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone fell slightly. With the gradual progress of the resumption of downstream factories after the holiday and the policy orientation, the overall demand is expected to maintain a positive trend in the future. Tire inventories of downstream enterprises are expected to remain high in April. Domestic economic stimulus policies are gradually playing a role, and the future is expected to be positive. Technically, rubber prices remain volatile. Operation suggestion: Shock thinking operation.

PTA: PTA opens and falls within a day, so it is not advisable to blindly chase up;
TA2209 closed up 5.11% on Thursday. Today's spot offers refer to futures 2205 liters of water at 90-100 yuan / ton, and bids refer to 2205 liters of water at 90 yuan / ton, and refer to the negotiation of 6605-6735 yuan / ton, and the trading atmosphere is general. Due to the strong demand for refined oil in the United States, the local demand for aromatics to adjust oil has greatly increased, attracting some PX sources to be exported to the United States, and the market is worried about the tightening of supply in Asia. On Wednesday, the price of PX in Northeast Asia rose sharply. In addition, the overnight oil price rebounded strongly, and the cost factor stimulated the PTA disk. rise. The current cost is still the core driving factor of PTA, but the loose supply has restrained the market upside. It is recommended to follow the idea of rolling too much oil price, and it is not advisable to blindly chase the increase.

Polyolefins: Market sentiment picks up, the disk fluctuates and stabilizes;
Plastics 2209 closed down 0.42% on Thursday. The spot market is mixed, the terminal is not willing to receive goods, and the wait-and-see mood is strong. The linear quotation in North China is 8700-9000 yuan / ton, the quotation in East China is 8780-9100 yuan / ton, and the quotation in South China is 8900-9150 yuan / ton.
PP2209 closed down 0.59% on Thursday. The spot market fluctuates in a narrow range, downstream factories are cautiously receiving goods, and the firm offer focuses on negotiation. The price of drawing in North China is 8550-8630 yuan / ton, the price in East China is 8600-8780 yuan / ton, and the price in South China is 8700-8900 yuan / ton.
The downstream construction is lower than in previous years, the actual supply and demand remain weak, and the market inflection point still needs to be waited, but the crude oil price is running at a high level, and the cost bottom restricts the space below. Shock thinking is recommended.
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Methanol: Neng Hua mostly rebounded, methanol Masukura went up;
On Thursday, the main methanol contract 2209 rose 1.5% from the previous trading day, with a Masukura of 70,000 lots and a position of 1.02 million lots. In terms of spot, Taicang methanol market offers 2665-2685 yuan / ton (15/-15). The methanol market in Henan fluctuated in a range, and the mainstream transaction was 2520-2545 yuan / ton. Mainland inventories have increased slightly, and manufacturers are willing to ship. Some downstream factories are actively taking out raw materials, but downstream demand is generally following up, and supply and demand are relatively stalemate. Crude oil has rebounded slightly in recent days, and energy and chemical products have mostly risen due to the boost. Operation suggestion: Shock thinking operation.

Bitumen: Stable supply of bitumen is lower than expected;
On Thursday, the international crude oil fluctuated and rose, the price of asphalt rose steadily, and the supply was lower than expected, which pushed up the price of asphalt. Recently, the production schedule of asphalt refineries has been insufficient. At present, due to uncontrollable factors in China, the construction progress is hindered, and the overall demand for asphalt is insufficient. However, some areas just need to stabilize and support the price of asphalt. The demand in South China, Southwest China, and East China has been rising steadily, but the northern region has recently affected the overall demand due to uncontrollable factors, supporting the fundamentals of asphalt. Import prices continued to rise and were higher than spot prices in some areas, and traders' sentiment was not high.

Fuel oil: Crude oil pulled back, fuel oil fluctuated and rose;
On Thursday, international crude oil fluctuated at a high level, and fuel oil rose steadily. Recently, the northern region has been affected by uncontrollable factors, the market demand for refined oil is relatively weak, the market has a strong wait-and-see mood, the large-scale trading sentiment is not high, and some just need support. Last week, the operating rate of domestic decompression and coking units rebounded, and the supply of residual oil and oil slurry in the market also increased, but domestic demand was relatively flat. Internationally, the shipping industry has been stable as a whole recently, fuel demand has been rising steadily, and inventories in the United States, Japan, and Singapore have continued to decline. Affected by the lack of crude oil supply, it is currently difficult to replenish inventories in Singapore and other places, resulting in continued high spot prices in Singapore. The fundamentals of the international market are good.

Source: Guosen Futures
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