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Market News Crude oil trading reminder: The World Bank lowered its economic forecast, the United States discussed restrictions on Russian oil, and it is difficult for oil prices to stand at the 120 mark?
Crude oil trading reminder: The World Bank lowered its economic forecast, the United States discussed restrictions on Russian oil, and it is difficult for oil prices to stand at the 120 mark?
During the Asian session on June 8, U.S. oil fluctuated within a narrow range and was now at $119.72 per barrel; API data in the morning showed that the U.S. API crude oil inventories increased by 1.845 million barrels in the week ended June 3. In addition, Yellen said that the United States is discussing Restrictions on Russian oil prices and another cut in global growth forecasts by the World Bank weighed on prices. Pay attention to EIA data and the speech of US Treasury Secretary Yellen in the evening.
2022-06-08
11155
In the Asian session on Wednesday (June 8), U.S. oil fluctuated within a narrow range and was now at $119.72 per barrel; morning API data showed that the U.S. API crude oil inventories increased by 1.845 million barrels in the week ended June 3. In addition, Yellen said U.S. talks to cap Russian oil prices and another cut in global growth forecasts by the World Bank weighed on prices.
During the day, the focus will be on the final monthly rate of wholesale inventories in the United States and EIA data. At 22:00, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen testified before the U.S. House Ways and Means Committee to discuss President Biden's 2023 fiscal year budget.
[Yellen says the U.S. is in talks to limit Russian oil prices]
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the United States was actively participating in discussions on the possibility of creating a camp of oil buyers that would keep Russian oil in global markets while limiting Russian oil revenue.
Asked by Republican Senator Bill Cassidy about the reported European moves aimed at keeping Russian oil prices at levels that do not exceed the cost of production, Yellen responded that discussions about building a buyer camp were "extremely active." Asked if the U.S. was involved in discussions to limit the price buyers pay for Russian crude, Yellen said: "Yes, we are, we want to keep Russian oil flowing into the global market, curb global prices, and try to avoid a spike in oil prices," Yellen said. , to avoid a global recession, but the aim is definitely to limit the flow of revenue to Russia, technically there are different ways to do that, but it’s certainly the ideal strategy.”
API data released in the morning showed that the US API crude oil inventories increased by 1.845 million barrels in the week ended June 3, and I gasoline inventories increased by 1.821 million barrels.
[The World Bank once again lowered its global growth forecast]
The World Bank further downgraded its forecast for global economic growth in 2022, warning that the prospect of above-average inflation and below-average growth in the coming years threatens to destabilize low- and middle-income economies. World Bank President David Malpass said in the foreword to the latest Global Economic Outlook report released on Tuesday that the world economy is again at risk, facing both high inflation and slow growth. Even if a global recession is avoided, the pain of stagflation could persist for years unless supply increases significantly.
The Washington-based World Bank cut its forecast for global growth this year to 2.9 percent this year, from forecasts in January and April, as energy and food prices surged, Russia's invasion of Ukraine sparked supply disruptions and global central banks raised interest rates from extremely low levels. 4.1% and 3.2%, respectively.
World economy grows 5.7% in 2021 after Covid-19 triggered worst global recession since World War II; Malpass said, “Recession will be hard to avoid for many countries, negative shocks of the past two years This means that real per capita incomes in about 40% of developing economies will continue to be lower than pre-pandemic levels in 2023."
[Iran's oil sales in April and May increased by 40% year-on-year]
Iran's oil ministry announced on June 7, local time, that the export of Iranian oil continues under the all-out U.S. economic war and sanctions against Iran, especially the country's oil industry. Iran's official INA news agency quoted people familiar with the oil sector as saying that Iran's daily oil exports remained at more than 1 million barrels per day. According to Iran's official "Iran newspaper" data, for several months, the increase in Iran's crude oil and condensate sales and the increase in oil prices offset part of the budget deficit. In April-May 2022, Iranian oil sales Year-over-year growth of 40% and revenue growth of 60% year-over-year. In addition, oil ministry officials revealed that the ministry could not publicly describe the work being done and the progress made given the potential for abuse of sanctions by the United States.
[Russia is increasing oil exports from major eastern ports by about 20%]
Russia is increasing oil exports from its main eastern port of Kozmino by about a fifth to meet surging demand from Asian buyers and offset the impact of EU sanctions, three people familiar with the matter said. The additional supply will allow Kozmino to increase its total shipments to about 900,000 bpd in the next few months, the sources said, with an average of about 750,000 bpd so far this year. Shipments of Kozmino in 2021 are around 720,000 bpd.
[Russian companies are interested in investing in South African oil and gas resources]
According to a report by the Russian Satellite News Agency on June 6, South Africa’s ambassador to Russia, Mzuvukile Maktuka, said in an interview that Gazprom (Gazprom) is negotiating with South African companies on investment matters, and is negotiating with South African companies. Sasol's project is also in the coordination phase.
"Gazprom is interested in South African oil and gas projects and investment opportunities. Gazprom is negotiating with South African companies developing these projects, and hopes to become partners of these companies," Maktuka said.
[US CDC raises monkeypox alert level in response to more than 1,000 global cases]
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has raised the alert level for monkeypox outbreaks to level 2, encouraging the public to "strengthen precautionary measures" in response to the recent outbreak of monkeypox. The new CDC guidelines include wearing a mask while traveling and avoiding close contact with sick animals and people, especially those with skin injuries. The latest data from the US CDC shows that globally, the cumulative number of confirmed and suspected cases in 29 countries has reached 1,019.
[US stocks rose for the second day in a row and recovered last week's losses]
U.S. stocks rose for a second day on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 gaining 1.0%, recouping all of last week's losses, and the benchmark index climbing to session highs in the final hour of trading. U.S. Treasuries pared gains and the dollar fell.
The Nasdaq 100 was higher as gains in giants such as Apple and Microsoft offset losses in Amazon, with consumer discretionary leading losses as Target Corp. cut its profit forecast for the second time in three weeks, with sentiment mostly in the dark Volatility, traders are reluctant to take risks out of fears that tightening monetary policy by the Federal Reserve will stifle economic growth.
But that changed later as buying emerged, with 10 of the 11 S&P sectors gaining and the Russell 2000 up more than 1.5%.
The World Bank further downgraded its forecast for global economic growth in 2022, warning of the danger of stagflation in the years ahead, and May inflation data due on Friday could help traders gauge the Fed's path for interest rates and whether it will continue to grow at a rate. Rate hikes at a 50 basis point pace.
[EIA Energy Outlook Report Raises Oil Price Forecast]
The EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook report expects U.S. crude oil prices to be $102.47/barrel in 2022, compared with an earlier forecast of $98.20/barrel, and a Brent price of $107.37/barrel in 2022, compared with an earlier estimate of $103.35/barrel; Crude oil was at $93.24/bbl, compared with an earlier forecast of $93.24/bbl, and Brent crude oil was forecast at $97.24/bbl in 2023, compared with an earlier forecast of $97.24/bbl.
The U.S. crude oil consumption is expected to be 20.73 million barrels per day in 2023, compared with the previous expectation of 20.78 million barrels per day.
Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial, said, “The real fundamentals for crude oil, gasoline and diesel remain bullish, although prices are rising a little too quickly.”
[Zelensky said that the resumption of the line of control before February 24 is only possible for negotiations]
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an interview on the 7th local time that negotiations with Russia are possible only if the line of control before February 24 is restored. Ukraine's ultimate goal remains to reclaim all its territory.
In general, the World Bank has lowered its global economic forecast and the United States is discussing to limit Russian oil prices. Oil prices may fluctuate in a short-term, and it may not be easy to stabilize the 120 mark in the short term. Pay attention to EIA data and the speech of US Treasury Secretary Yellen in the evening.
At 8:20 GMT+8, U.S. crude oil is now at $119.72 a barrel.
During the day, the focus will be on the final monthly rate of wholesale inventories in the United States and EIA data. At 22:00, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen testified before the U.S. House Ways and Means Committee to discuss President Biden's 2023 fiscal year budget.
Negative factors affecting oil prices
[Yellen says the U.S. is in talks to limit Russian oil prices]
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the United States was actively participating in discussions on the possibility of creating a camp of oil buyers that would keep Russian oil in global markets while limiting Russian oil revenue.
Asked by Republican Senator Bill Cassidy about the reported European moves aimed at keeping Russian oil prices at levels that do not exceed the cost of production, Yellen responded that discussions about building a buyer camp were "extremely active." Asked if the U.S. was involved in discussions to limit the price buyers pay for Russian crude, Yellen said: "Yes, we are, we want to keep Russian oil flowing into the global market, curb global prices, and try to avoid a spike in oil prices," Yellen said. , to avoid a global recession, but the aim is definitely to limit the flow of revenue to Russia, technically there are different ways to do that, but it’s certainly the ideal strategy.”
API data released in the morning showed that the US API crude oil inventories increased by 1.845 million barrels in the week ended June 3, and I gasoline inventories increased by 1.821 million barrels.
[The World Bank once again lowered its global growth forecast]
The World Bank further downgraded its forecast for global economic growth in 2022, warning that the prospect of above-average inflation and below-average growth in the coming years threatens to destabilize low- and middle-income economies. World Bank President David Malpass said in the foreword to the latest Global Economic Outlook report released on Tuesday that the world economy is again at risk, facing both high inflation and slow growth. Even if a global recession is avoided, the pain of stagflation could persist for years unless supply increases significantly.
The Washington-based World Bank cut its forecast for global growth this year to 2.9 percent this year, from forecasts in January and April, as energy and food prices surged, Russia's invasion of Ukraine sparked supply disruptions and global central banks raised interest rates from extremely low levels. 4.1% and 3.2%, respectively.
World economy grows 5.7% in 2021 after Covid-19 triggered worst global recession since World War II; Malpass said, “Recession will be hard to avoid for many countries, negative shocks of the past two years This means that real per capita incomes in about 40% of developing economies will continue to be lower than pre-pandemic levels in 2023."
[Iran's oil sales in April and May increased by 40% year-on-year]
Iran's oil ministry announced on June 7, local time, that the export of Iranian oil continues under the all-out U.S. economic war and sanctions against Iran, especially the country's oil industry. Iran's official INA news agency quoted people familiar with the oil sector as saying that Iran's daily oil exports remained at more than 1 million barrels per day. According to Iran's official "Iran newspaper" data, for several months, the increase in Iran's crude oil and condensate sales and the increase in oil prices offset part of the budget deficit. In April-May 2022, Iranian oil sales Year-over-year growth of 40% and revenue growth of 60% year-over-year. In addition, oil ministry officials revealed that the ministry could not publicly describe the work being done and the progress made given the potential for abuse of sanctions by the United States.
[Russia is increasing oil exports from major eastern ports by about 20%]
Russia is increasing oil exports from its main eastern port of Kozmino by about a fifth to meet surging demand from Asian buyers and offset the impact of EU sanctions, three people familiar with the matter said. The additional supply will allow Kozmino to increase its total shipments to about 900,000 bpd in the next few months, the sources said, with an average of about 750,000 bpd so far this year. Shipments of Kozmino in 2021 are around 720,000 bpd.
[Russian companies are interested in investing in South African oil and gas resources]
According to a report by the Russian Satellite News Agency on June 6, South Africa’s ambassador to Russia, Mzuvukile Maktuka, said in an interview that Gazprom (Gazprom) is negotiating with South African companies on investment matters, and is negotiating with South African companies. Sasol's project is also in the coordination phase.
"Gazprom is interested in South African oil and gas projects and investment opportunities. Gazprom is negotiating with South African companies developing these projects, and hopes to become partners of these companies," Maktuka said.
[US CDC raises monkeypox alert level in response to more than 1,000 global cases]
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has raised the alert level for monkeypox outbreaks to level 2, encouraging the public to "strengthen precautionary measures" in response to the recent outbreak of monkeypox. The new CDC guidelines include wearing a mask while traveling and avoiding close contact with sick animals and people, especially those with skin injuries. The latest data from the US CDC shows that globally, the cumulative number of confirmed and suspected cases in 29 countries has reached 1,019.
Bullish factors affecting oil prices
[US stocks rose for the second day in a row and recovered last week's losses]
U.S. stocks rose for a second day on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 gaining 1.0%, recouping all of last week's losses, and the benchmark index climbing to session highs in the final hour of trading. U.S. Treasuries pared gains and the dollar fell.
The Nasdaq 100 was higher as gains in giants such as Apple and Microsoft offset losses in Amazon, with consumer discretionary leading losses as Target Corp. cut its profit forecast for the second time in three weeks, with sentiment mostly in the dark Volatility, traders are reluctant to take risks out of fears that tightening monetary policy by the Federal Reserve will stifle economic growth.
But that changed later as buying emerged, with 10 of the 11 S&P sectors gaining and the Russell 2000 up more than 1.5%.
The World Bank further downgraded its forecast for global economic growth in 2022, warning of the danger of stagflation in the years ahead, and May inflation data due on Friday could help traders gauge the Fed's path for interest rates and whether it will continue to grow at a rate. Rate hikes at a 50 basis point pace.
[EIA Energy Outlook Report Raises Oil Price Forecast]
The EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook report expects U.S. crude oil prices to be $102.47/barrel in 2022, compared with an earlier forecast of $98.20/barrel, and a Brent price of $107.37/barrel in 2022, compared with an earlier estimate of $103.35/barrel; Crude oil was at $93.24/bbl, compared with an earlier forecast of $93.24/bbl, and Brent crude oil was forecast at $97.24/bbl in 2023, compared with an earlier forecast of $97.24/bbl.
The U.S. crude oil consumption is expected to be 20.73 million barrels per day in 2023, compared with the previous expectation of 20.78 million barrels per day.
Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial, said, “The real fundamentals for crude oil, gasoline and diesel remain bullish, although prices are rising a little too quickly.”
[Zelensky said that the resumption of the line of control before February 24 is only possible for negotiations]
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an interview on the 7th local time that negotiations with Russia are possible only if the line of control before February 24 is restored. Ukraine's ultimate goal remains to reclaim all its territory.
In general, the World Bank has lowered its global economic forecast and the United States is discussing to limit Russian oil prices. Oil prices may fluctuate in a short-term, and it may not be easy to stabilize the 120 mark in the short term. Pay attention to EIA data and the speech of US Treasury Secretary Yellen in the evening.
At 8:20 GMT+8, U.S. crude oil is now at $119.72 a barrel.
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