Crude oil trading reminder: Asian big countries put oil reserves, and inventory reduction can not drive oil prices to rise?
During the Asian session on September 10, U.S. crude oil hovered around 67.94. Oil prices fell to its lowest level in two weeks on Thursday. Asian powers announced that they would organize the release of national reserve crude oil. Looking for safer assets, the downside risks of oil prices have increased under the influence of multiple factors.

During the Asian session on Friday (September 10), U.S. crude oil hovered around 68.02, and oil prices fell to its lowest level in two weeks on Thursday. Asian powers announced that they would organize the release of national reserve crude oil. The decline in U.S. crude oil inventories last week was smaller than expected, and U.S. Treasuries rose. , Because investors seek safer assets.
In the day, we will focus on the US PPI annual rate in August, the final value of the US wholesale inventory monthly rate in July, and the Federal Reserve Meester's speech. Saturday, at 1:00 pm, the total number of wells in the United States for the week as of September 10 will be announced.
Negative factors affecting oil prices
[S&P 500 Index fell for four consecutive days]
The U.S. stock market was volatile on Thursday and closed down. Although the proliferation of delta variants disrupted global growth, the mixed economic data in the U.S. made investors vigilant about the prospect of policy stimulus cuts by decision-making bodies.
The S&P 500 Index fell for the fourth consecutive trading day. It rose to less than 0.4% from a record high during the session. The US dollar weakened and the 10-year US Treasury yield fell.
Data on Thursday showed that as the labor market continued to recover, the number of first-time jobless claims in the United States fell to the lowest point since the epidemic. At the same time, however, there is increasing evidence that the Delta variant strain may be hindering economic recovery, and more US companies have expressed concern about it.
Independent Advisor Alliance chief investment officer Chris Zaccarelli pointed out that the stock market’s afternoon downturn coincided with the subsequent US Treasury bond auctions and bond market activities; investors bought US Treasury bonds on Thursday, depressing yields.
Zaccarelli said that there is a general perception in the market that economic growth in the United States is slowing, and people are worried that the delta mutant strain is affecting consumer behavior and may affect corporate behavior.
[The U.S. economy still faces challenges from the epidemic]
Charles Evans, chairman of the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank, said. "After a severe and sharp decline in economic activity last year, we have seen strong economic growth. However, the general bottlenecks in the supply chain and labor market prove that the economy is still facing challenges."
In his welcome speech at a virtual event hosted by the Chicago Fed on Thursday, Evans said: “There is still a high degree of uncertainty in the future. The new coronavirus variant is affecting the health and safety of the United States.” At the same time, the rapid development of vaccines has brought about There is great hope. Although we have not yet come out of the predicament, the situation is much better than a year ago." "Our policy tools cannot solve many of the systemic injustices exposed by this crisis."
[Fed officials say labor supply and demand imbalances may last longer]
Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan said: "This imbalance between labor supply and demand will continue for a longer period of time, so I think there may be some expansion in price pressures into next year." "We may see moderate prices for used cars, but based on our At work, we at the Dallas Fed feel that the price pressure may be expanding," he said at a virtual event, and reiterated that the PCE price index is expected to rise by 2.6% in 2022, and there is a risk of upward adjustment.
The substantial imbalance between supply and demand continues. Many business owners who have spoken to Kaplan say the situation has become "a little bit worse", meaning that it will take longer to resolve the problem.
[Investors sell oil and other higher-risk assets]
China’s State Bureau of Grain and Material Reserves said on Thursday that, approved by the State Council, for the first time, the State Reserve crude oil will be put in batches in a rotating manner to ease the pressure on raw material prices for production enterprises, which puts oil prices under pressure; in addition, the US standard After the sale of US$24 billion of 30-year Treasury bonds, oil prices fell again by more than US$1. This round of auctions received strong demand and the winning interest rate was as low as 1.91%. Investors dumped riskier assets such as oil and stocks.
UBS commodities analyst Giovanni Staunovo said, “The additional supply from China’s national reserves reduces the need to import more oil in the short term, thereby putting pressure on oil prices.”
[The spread of COVID-19 mutant strains extends the cycle of the third wave of epidemics in Africa]
On September 9, local time, the WHO Regional Office for Africa held an online press conference in Brazzaville, capital of Congo (Brazzaville).
According to the content of the press conference, as of September 5, the number of new confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia in the African continent in the last week was about 165,000, an increase of 23% compared with last week, but this value is still higher than the peak of the first wave of epidemics. To be high. Due to the widespread spread of mutated strains, the improvement of the third wave of epidemics in Africa is very slow.
According to Morty, the WHO Regional Director for Africa, the new crown epidemic on the African continent has caused more than 200,000 deaths, and in some countries where the number of confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia has surged, the delta strain has become the mainstream strain. For example, in Botswana, South Africa and Malawi, more than 70% of the new coronavirus samples are Delta strains, while in Zimbabwe, the proportion has reached more than 90%. A total of 10 countries around the world have detected the newly discovered C.1.2 mutant strain in South Africa, including 5 African countries. The dose of vaccine delivered to African countries through the "New Coronary Pneumonia Vaccine Implementation Plan" continues to increase, but currently only 3% of the African population has completed the vaccination, which is far behind the global average.
Bullish factors affecting oil prices
[The number of people claiming unemployment benefits for the first time in the United States last week dropped the most since the end of June]
The number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time in the United States last week dropped the most since the end of June, indicating that the labor market continues to move towards a full recovery.
According to data released by the Labor Department on Thursday, the number of people claiming regular state unemployment benefits for the week as of September 4 fell to 310,000. Bloomberg survey economists predict that the median value is 335,000; the number of people who continue to claim unemployment benefits is as of It fell to 2.78 million in the week of August 28.
The number of people claiming unemployment benefits for the first time has steadily declined, as the progress of vaccination work and the economic reopening have increased the demand for workers. However, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits is still higher than the level before the epidemic. Economists predict that economic growth will slow in the third quarter as stimulus spending slows.
The recent rebound in the epidemic may put the labor market’s steady recovery at risk of interruption, especially if the epidemic prompts school districts to reconsider face-to-face education. Missouri, Georgia, and New York state saw the biggest drop in unadjusted initial jobless claims last week. ?
[U.S. crude oil inventories fell to the lowest in two years last week]
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) announced on Thursday that U.S. crude oil and refined oil inventories fell sharply last week. Hurricane Ida caused most of the offshore production and many refineries to close.
Analysts had previously expected that due to the inability of offshore platforms to deliver crude oil to the United States and the suspension of operations of many refineries, inventories in all major categories would fall sharply. About three-quarters of offshore production in the Gulf of Mexico is still closed.
In the week ending September 3, crude oil inventories fell by 1.528 million barrels to 423.9 million barrels. Analysts in a Reuters survey estimated a drop of 4.75 million barrels. Crude oil inventories are currently at their lowest level since September 2019.
According to EIA, the refinery's refinery capacity decreased by 1.6 million barrels per day last week. The refinery capacity utilization rate fell by 9.4%, mainly due to the closure of the refinery in the Gulf of Mexico in the United States. The overall capacity utilization rate in the region fell from 92.4% in the previous week to 75.7%, and the refining capacity utilization rate in the central and western regions declined slightly.
Crude oil inventories fell sharply by 7.2 million barrels, which is estimated to fall by 3.4 million barrels. The overall supply of oil products remains high, a sign that demand remained relatively strong during the storm and refineries reduced inventories to a certain extent.
Gasoline inventories on the east coast of the United States fell to the lowest level since November 2017. Gasoline in the region is mainly transported by the Colonial pipeline, which was closed during the storm as a precautionary measure.
Distillate stocks, including diesel and heating oil, fell by 3.1 million barrels, which is expected to decrease by 2.6 million barrels. Due to the closure of offshore platforms, US crude oil production fell to 10 million barrels per day from 11.5 million barrels per day a week ago.
Analyst Sheela Tobben commented on EIA crude oil inventory data. The hurricane also caused the United States’ domestic crude oil production to drop by 1.5 million barrels per day last week, the largest drop in records. Even now-more than 10 days after Hurricane Ida made landfall, only 20% of the damaged crude oil production has recovered. The current domestic crude oil production in the United States is the lowest level since the winter storm in Texas.
The financial blog Zero Hedging commented on US EIA data. At present, only 20% of offshore platforms have been evacuated, but 77% of oil production is still closed. One of the reasons for the slow recovery of oil and gas supply is the Fourchon Port in Louisiana, which is a key hub for oil and gas platforms and handles more than 18% of the state's oil supply. As of September 7, work to resume port operations is still in progress.
Overall, although the EIA crude oil inventory data has decreased, it is far below expectations, and the boost to oil prices is limited. Under the influence of the oil reserves of major Asian countries and economic recovery concerns, investors have dumped crude oil to seek safe assets, making oil prices once again. The decline in oil prices has increased due to multiple factors. As the weekend approaches, pay attention to news about the hurricane and news about Iran’s nuclear negotiations.
GMT+8 8:18, U.S. crude oil is now quoted at US$68.02/barrel.
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