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Market News 【TOP1 Evening】 Bitcoin bounces back to $53000, Gold gains and oil falls as rising COVID-19 cases

【TOP1 Evening】 Bitcoin bounces back to $53000, Gold gains and oil falls as rising COVID-19 cases

Oil falls as India's COVID-19 surge dents demand outlook; Cisco's CEO says he expects computer chip shortages to last for another six months.

TOPONE Markets Analyst
2021-04-26
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Gold


Gold prices gained on Monday as rising coronavirus cases boosted the metal's safe-haven appeal, supported by a weaker dollar as investors await this week's U.S. Federal Reserve meeting.


Spot gold rose 0.21% to $1779.66 per ounce, silver rose 0.39% to $26.089 per ounce by 18:00 (GMT+8).


"The COVID-19 situation in India and Japan is deteriorating. So that is boiling demand for safety, resulting in higher gold prices," said Margaret Yang, a strategist at DailyFX, adding that an easing dollar is further supporting prices.


Cases in India registered a record surge, while Japan declared states of emergency for Tokyo, Osaka and two other prefectures on Friday to combat a spike.


Bitcoin rallied back Monday as investors took advantage of the lowest levels in seven weeks to pile back in.


Bitcoin rose 3.26% to $52587.0 by 18:00 (GMT+8).


"The world is moving from centralized to decentralized; if you believe in that theme, it means the drop is a great buying opportunity," said Michael Sikorsky, chief executive officer and founder of Copia Wealth Studios, in a recent note. "Volatility has always created opportunity, and people keep being surprised by the new highs month over month and year over year."


Forex


The dollar edged lower on Monday amid speculation that U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will shun talk of tapering bond purchases at a policy meeting this week.


The euro rose to a near two-month high against the greenback before data later on Monday forecast to show an improvement in German business sentiment, which would bolster hopes for a brighter economic outlook.


Powell is likely to face questions over whether an improving labour market and rising coronavirus vaccinations warrant a withdrawal of monetary easing, but most analysts expect him to say such talk is premature, which would put downward pressure on Treasury yields and the dollar.


The U.S. dollar index fell 0.99% to 90.73 by 18:00(GMT+8).


"The dollar is likely to continue to trend lower in line with the gathering momentum in the world economy," analysts at Commonwealth Bank of Australia wrote in a research note.


"We expect the Fed policy meeting to be a non-event for the dollar. The U.S. economy is a long way from meeting the 'substantial further progress' threshold for the Fed to taper its asset purchases."


The dollar stood at 107.75 yen, close to its lowest since March 4.


The euro rose to $1.2110, adding to gains made on Friday after positive data on European services and manufacturing activity.


A survey from Germany's Ifo institute due later on Monday is expected to show business conditions continued to improve in Europe's largest economy.


The British pound was quoted at $1.3897, adding to a 0.3% gain in the previous session.


Crude Oil


Oil prices fell on Monday on fears that surging COVID-19 cases in India will drive down fuel demand in the world's third biggest oil importer and as investors adjusted positions ahead of a planned increase in OPEC+ oil output from May.


U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was at $61.052 a barrel, fell 1.67% Brent was down to $64.336 a barrel, fell1.72% by 18:00(GMT+8).


"Market sentiment was dented on worries that surging number of COVID-19 cases in some countries, especially in India, will slash fuel demand," Kazuhiko Saito, chief analyst at commodities broker Fujitomi Co.


Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged all citizens to be vaccinated and exercise caution, saying on Sunday the "storm" of infections had shaken India, as the country set a new global record for the most COVID-19 infections in a day.


In Japan, the world's fourth-largest oil buyer, a third state of emergency in Tokyo, Osaka and two other prefectures began on Sunday, affecting nearly a quarter of the population as the country attempts to combat a surge in cases.


The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia, known as OPEC+, surprised the market at its April 1 meeting by agreeing to ease production curbs by 350,000 barrels per day (bpd) in May, another 350,000 bpd in June and a further 400,000 bpd or so in July.


The producer group will hold a largely technical meeting this week, with major changes to policy unlikely, Russian Deputy Prime Minister and OPEC+ sources said last week.


A technical committee meeting is set for Monday, where market fundamentals and compliance with production cuts will be discussed.


Stocks


Stocks in Asia-Pacific was mixed on Monday.


Nikkei 225 rose 105.60 points or 0.36%, close at 29,126.23.

S&P/ASX 200 fell 15.10 points or 0.21% to close at 7,045.60.

Hang Seng Index fell 125.92 points or 0.43% to 28,952.83.

South Korea's Kospi rose 31.43 points or 0.99% to 3,217.53.

Taiwan capitalization weighted stock index rose 272.02 points or 1.57% to 17,572.29.


Europe stock markets opened mixed on Thursday, At press time: 


FTSE 100 Index fell 5.13 points or 0.07% at 6,933.64.

Germany DAX 30 rose 9.51 points or 0.062% at 15,289.13.

France CAC 40 rose 14.34 points or 0.23% at 6,272.28.


Cisco's chief executive Chuck Robbins said the global shortage of computer chips is expected to last for most of this year.


"We think we've got another six months to get through the short term," he told the BBC.


Supply-chain disruptions in semiconductors have impacted many tech firms, caused by a surge in demand for electronics prompted by the COVID-19 pandemic and chip shortages at large production facilities, The Financial Times reported.


This has prompted providers to build out more capacity, Robbins told the BBC. And "that'll get better and better over the next 12 to 18 months," he said.


Expansion of capacity will be vital as demand soars. The shortage is a big problem, Robbins said, "because semiconductors go in virtually everything."


As a result of the dwindling supply, makers of smartphones, televisions, and home appliances have seen delays in production, The disruptions are also affecting the production of other domestic appliances such as toasters and washing machines. 


The COVID-19 pandemic is not the only possible factor in computer chip supply shortages. At the start of this month, the U.S. added Chinese supercomputing companies to its export blacklist for assisting the Chinese military, Reuters reported. 


Focus Tonight


20:30 (GMT+8): United States Durable Goods Orders MoM (MAR), Forecast: 2.5%, Previous: -1.1%;


22:30 (GMT+8): Euro Area ECB President Lagarde Speech;

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